1. Short-term Economic Calculations: The seemingly clever 'killing three birds with one stone'
- Stopping the 'bottomless pit' of Israel: Israel's industrial base is weak, relying on American blood transfusions for heavy combat. Currently, the US faces an annual budget deficit of $2 trillion, with $38 trillion in debt looming over them, and the last thing they want is for Israel and Iran to engage in a prolonged war—if a 'war of attrition' were to break out, Israel would inevitably come to the US for reimbursement. The Trump administration decided to take matters into their own hands, resolving the issue with a few fighter jets and dozens of missiles, thus fulfilling Israel's strategic goals while cutting off the other side's 'high demands' rationale, a classic case of 'spending little to prevent great loss'.
- Igniting the oil dollar printing press: Trump is well aware that blowing up Iran's nuclear facilities will likely force them to block the Strait of Hormuz. The Persian Gulf is the throats of 20%-30% of the world's oil exports, and once blocked, international oil prices could skyrocket past $100. The US is now the world's largest oil exporter, and the oil giants are Trump's 'big sponsors', so a surge in oil prices not only allows him to claim 'economic stimulation' as an achievement but also lets his own business profit significantly from the capital market, a clever calculation for both fame and profit.
- Planting a 'recession bomb' in Europe: 58% of Europe's oil is imported, and most of it is used directly as energy. When oil prices rise, prices will soar, compounded by the steel and aluminum tariffs and auto tariffs previously imposed by the US, which could push the European economy into a chronic recession. At this point, the US could take advantage of the situation to buy up European high-tech companies and quality infrastructure at low prices, elevating the 'shearing sheep' to an international level.
2. Long-term Hazards: Underestimated Opponents and Uncontrolled Chessboard
- Israel's 'counterintuitive' operations: The US can accurately destroy Iran's nuclear facilities, likely relying on intelligence provided by Israel. But if you think about it, Israel has its own fighter jets and missiles, so why not take action themselves? They probably calculated Trump's desire for a 'killing three birds with one stone' approach, deliberately using intelligence as bait to draw the US into the conflict. Once the US takes action, Israel can naturally raise higher demands, such as expanding the scope of military operations, putting the US in a difficult position – after all, they initiated involvement and cannot backtrack without losing face, and will have to continue acting as the 'patsy'.
- The Dangerous Cost of Awakening the Persian Lion: Many underestimate Iran's depth. This country, with a population of nearly 100 million, harbors ambitions to restore the ancient Persian Empire. The US's direct destruction of its nuclear facilities is akin to stepping on their pride. It's important to understand that ancient Persian civilization is entirely different from Arab civilization, just like the distinction between the Ming and the Qing. Once Iran's national sentiment is stirred, shifting from 'suppression' to 'awakening', its mobilization capacity and cohesion will grow exponentially. Blocking the Strait of Hormuz is just a minor issue; the truly frightening aspect is the energy unleashed by the awakening of Persian civilization, which poses the most troubling long-term threat to the US in the Middle East.
3. Essence: Short-term Speculation Under Hegemonic Thinking
The essence of this operation by the US is to use hegemonic advantages for short-term arbitrage, yet they have not fully grasped the complexities of geopolitical realities. Israel's 'shrewdness' and Iran's 'resilience' could turn this 'killing three birds with one stone' into 'setting oneself on fire'. When a hegemonic power becomes obsessed with the 'art of deal-making', but neglects the opponent's strategic depth and national will, the pit they dig could end up being much deeper than anticipated.