Bitcoin Says Goodbye to the Bear Market: A Shift in Investment Logic for a New Era

Bitcoin's market capitalization has surpassed the trillion-dollar mark, and after more than a decade of development, it is迎来 a critical turning point. Industry insiders represented by Michael Saylor assert that: Bitcoin is no longer in a bear market. This perspective is based on a multi-dimensional transformation of the market.

The institutional wave reshapes the supply and demand landscape. After the approval of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF, financial giants like BlackRock and Fidelity have attracted substantial funds, with quarterly inflows far exceeding miner production, fundamentally changing the market supply-demand relationship. The continuous influx of institutional funds has eliminated the traditional basis for bear markets driven by retail panic and miner sell-offs. Today, price corrections of 20% - 30% are more akin to normal market fluctuations rather than systemic collapses.

The operational logic of the market has also undergone fundamental changes. The early volatility in Bitcoin prices was driven by speculative games; now, long-term holding strategies by companies like MicroStrategy have severed the risk chain of "forced selling." At the same time, the market's expectations for "halving" have been fully digested, significantly reducing its impact on prices. From market data, Bitcoin's historical and implied volatility has significantly decreased, and the magnitude of corrections is much smaller than in past bear markets, with price movements increasingly resembling those of mature assets.

Network effects and regulatory environments further consolidate Bitcoin's stability. An increasing number of institutions view it as an inflation hedge and a risk diversification asset, leading to a rise in the proportion of long-term holders and a decrease in selling pressure. The global regulatory framework is gradually becoming clearer, and the policy risk premium continues to decline.

For ordinary investors, Bitcoin's "bull market norm" offers a robust investment option, but the short-term potential of altcoins should not be overlooked. Altcoins have the potential for high multiples of growth in the short term, complementing Bitcoin's long-term value investment. Investors should reasonably allocate these two types of assets based on their goals, positions, and timing to seize new opportunities in the digital asset market. #美联储FOMC会议 $BTC