Luis G Guzman

The economist Timothy Peterson projects that $BTC could reach 138,000 dollars in just three months, based on a statistical correlation with the US High Yield index. Historically, when this indicator exceeds 8%, Bitcoin has risen in 71% of cases, with an average gain of 31%. Additionally, he points out an unusual positive correlation between BTC and the dollar, resulting from macroeconomic tensions such as low liquidity and high real rates. According to Peterson, this relationship will soon break, and Bitcoin could take off.

Donald Trump assesses removing Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, a decision that has generated great controversy due to the legal limits protecting the independence of the Central Bank. Although Trump cannot remove him directly, he could attempt to justify a legal cause. His criticisms of Powell are based on disagreements over economic policies, especially regarding interest rates. However, judicial precedents and federal laws prevent his removal for political reasons. The autonomy of the Federal Reserve is key to avoiding partisan interference. Attempting to remove Powell without just cause could affect economic stability and market confidence.
$BTC $ETH $XRP

The cryptocurrency market is going through a bearish phase, with a strong decline in altcoin capitalization and a drop in venture capital funding. However, Coinbase projects a possible explosive recovery towards the second half of 2025. Macroeconomic factors have cooled investor interest, but metrics such as the 200-day moving average and Bitcoin's Z-score indicate that we could be close to a cycle change. Additionally, Bitcoin's role as a store of value is strengthening, while the crypto ecosystem diversifies beyond the behavior of $BTC


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Senator Cynthia Lummis has proposed a bill for the United States to accumulate 1 million bitcoins ($BTC ) as a strategic reserve, aiming to reduce the national debt by half in two decades. The plan involves buying 200,000 BTC annually for five years and holding them for 20 years. Lummis argues that, combined with responsible fiscal policies, this would stabilize the economy and correct financial imbalances. Although she faces skepticism due to Bitcoin's volatility, her supporters see it as a solution to the imminent fiscal collapse.

Bitcoin ($BTC ) struggles to consolidate an upward trend, remaining close to $85,000 after recovering from recent drops. Its evolution depends on overcoming that resistance with higher volume and a bullish crossover between moving averages (10 and 20 days). The macroeconomic context, marked by the trade war between the U.S. and China, is key: a 90-day truce prompted a rebound, but concrete diplomatic advances are required to sustain confidence. China, although conciliatory, maintains tariffs of 125%, and any escalation could sink Bitcoin. At the same time, its narrative as "digital gold" against potential inflation from tariffs and greater institutional adoption could catapult its price, as long as ETFs attract significant capital.

In the midst of the trade war driven by Donald Trump, Bitcoin ($BTC ) demonstrated unprecedented stability by recording a volatility of 72.9% in 10 days, surpassing the S&P500 (76.8%), traditionally considered more stable. While the stock index suffered from tariff uncertainty, BTC recovered to USD 85,000, backed by a dollar at three-year lows, a historic factor for bullish rallies. The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) showed an inflationary slowdown, fueling economic hopes. Analysts like Eric Balchunas and Julio Moreno highlighted that BTC has reduced its volatility compared to past crises (COVID-19, FTX), consolidating itself as a possible "safe haven" in turbulent macroeconomic environments.

In the United States, the states of New Hampshire and Florida are advancing in the creation of state Bitcoin reserves ($BTC ) through legislative projects HB 302 and HB 487, approved in legislative committees. New Hampshire seeks to invest in the cryptocurrency without impacting taxpayers, while Florida aims to position itself as a technology leader. This initiative is part of an interstate race against Arizona, Texas, and Oklahoma, which are also promoting similar laws. Meanwhile, other projects protect mining and digital rights, such as New Hampshire's HB 639 and Arizona's HB 2342. The states are competing to attract blockchain investment, although critics warn of risks related to volatility and energy consumption. The trend reflects a shift towards pro-crypto policies in the U.S.