The current scenario of cryptocurrencies is going through a phase of uncertainty marked by a strong market contraction. Despite the negative data, Coinbase maintains an optimistic medium-term view, expecting a significant turnaround by the end of 2025. During April, the market capitalization of altcoins fell sharply from its peak in December 2024, decreasing by more than 40%. This slowdown has led experts to consider the possibility of a new crypto winter, given the rise of widespread pessimism and the challenges imposed by global macroeconomic factors.
Coinbase's head of research, David Duong, warns that various factors are converging to create an atmosphere of concern in the markets. The lower appetite from venture capital investors has directly affected emerging projects, limiting the inflow of new money into the ecosystem. This lack of momentum primarily stems from an uncertain global economic environment, in which risk assets have been hit by restrictive fiscal measures and aggressive trade policies that have paralyzed strategic decision-making.
Despite this gloomy outlook, a light is glimpsed at the end of the tunnel. Although the coming weeks are projected as a complex period, Coinbase's vision points to a recovery that could occur suddenly and explosively. The report highlights that, as soon as market sentiment changes, it is very likely that the momentum towards a bullish trend will be rapid. In fact, the expectation for the second half of 2025 remains positive, although caution is still recommended in the short term due to the possibility of new adjustments.
To identify potential cycle changes, Coinbase resorts to tools such as risk-adjusted performance and the 200-day moving average, two key metrics in their technical analysis. The Z score of Bitcoin ($BTC ) is also mentioned, an indicator that compares market value with realized value to detect overbought or oversold conditions. However, this tool, while useful, reacts slowly and does not always accurately reflect changes in more stable or less volatile markets.
For this reason, the 200-day moving average has gained greater relevance as a reference for charting long-term trends. This model, which eliminates short-term noise, showed that the bull market stopped at the end of February and is currently in a neutral zone. When applied to the Coinbase Coin50 index, the picture is even clearer: the decline had already begun since February, indicating that most major assets were already in a bear market since then.
In parallel, Coinbase has observed a decrease in the reliability of Bitcoin as a thermometer for the general cryptocurrency market. As the ecosystem expands into new areas such as DeFi, DePIN, and artificial intelligence, the dynamics diversify and respond to distinct forces. This suggests that Bitcoin's behavior no longer represents the full pulse of the sector. Although it is still seen as a store of value, it is becoming increasingly necessary to assess the global landscape of the crypto ecosystem to understand the real state of the market more accurately.
Finally, Duong concludes that although technical data currently places Bitcoin in bearish territory, it has also proven to be more resilient to external economic shocks than traditional markets. This detail reinforces the idea that, beyond temporary volatility, the foundations of the crypto market are evolving towards a maturity that will allow it to face the coming quarters with greater strength, preparing for what could be a new and vibrant bullish cycle.
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