The price of Bitcoin ($BTC ) shows signs of recovery after weeks of volatility, but has not yet confirmed a definitive upward trend. Currently, it hovers around $85,000, resisting falls below $80,000 that generated doubts about the end of the positive cycle. However, experts warn that to consolidate a sustained momentum, it is crucial to strongly surpass that level, backed by an increase in buying volume. A key technical indicator, the crossover between the 10 and 20-day exponential moving averages, has not yet been completed. If the 10-day green line manages to rise above the 20-day red line in the next two days, an optimistic scenario could be confirmed.
This slight rebound of Bitcoin has infected the rest of the market. Several altcoins in the top 100 have recorded weekly gains, reflecting a temporary relief in selling pressure. However, the macroeconomic outlook remains decisive. The trade war between the United States and China, marked by record tariffs of 145% imposed by Washington and responses of 125% from Beijing, keeps investors on edge. The recent 90-day pause announced by Donald Trump in new tariffs, except for China, allowed Bitcoin to bounce from $74,000 to $84,000, although uncertainty persists.
For Bitcoin to resume its upward trajectory, the market must interpret this truce as the beginning of successful negotiations. Concrete advances, such as tariff reductions on strategic sectors, could attract capital towards risk assets, including the decentralized, digital, and favored crypto asset called Bitcoin. China, for its part, has issued ambiguous signals, while raising taxes on American products, promising not to escalate tensions, for now. Any unexpected move, such as restrictions on rare earth exports or new sanctions, could trigger massive sell-offs and bring Bitcoin back towards the $70,000 projected weeks ago.
In addition to the geopolitical context, Bitcoin faces intrinsic challenges and opportunities. Its narrative as digital gold gains strength against the inflationary risk that the current tariffs could generate. Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, highlighted on social media that, 'In Bitcoin there are no tariffs,' underscoring its decentralized nature and independence from government policies. For this vision to materialize into higher prices, greater institutional interest is key, reflected in flows towards financial instruments like Bitcoin ETFs, which have been moderate so far.
In summary, Bitcoin navigates through turbulent waters. Although technical signals and relief in trade tensions offer hope, its immediate future depends on a fragile combination of diplomatic advances, macroeconomic stability, and institutional adoption. Investors, cautious but attentive, watch every move on this global chessboard where each piece, whether an influential tweet or a trade agreement, can change the rules of the game.
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