In an economic scenario marked by geopolitical tensions and tariff measures driven by the Donald Trump administration, Bitcoin ($BTC ) has surprised by demonstrating unusual stability against traditional stock indices. According to data revealed by Eric Balchunas, a Bloomberg analyst, the Standard and Poor’s 500 recorded a volatility of 76.8% over a 10-day period, surpassing Bitcoin's 72.9%. This phenomenon, described by Balchunas as 'unusual,' contrasts with the historical narrative that presents the crypto asset as highly unpredictable, while the U.S. index, composed of the 500 largest companies in the U.S., is often seen as a bastion of security.
While the Standard and Poor’s 500 faced turbulence from Trump's trade policies, Bitcoin not only maintained its position but even regained ground. After fluctuating between $75,000 and $80,000, the crypto asset climbed back above $85,000, according to TradingView data. This behavior coincides with a weakening of the dollar, which fell to levels not seen in three years, a factor that has historically driven bullish rallies in Bitcoin. Analysts like Venturefounder suggest that the bearish divergence of the DXY index could lead the dollar to drop to 90 points, creating an ideal environment for Bitcoin to activate a parabolic phase.
The relative stability of Bitcoin is not an isolated fact. Julio Moreno from CryptoQuant highlighted that during the trade tensions between the U.S. and China in April 2025, Bitcoin's intra-week volatility range was 8% to 21%, figures that are much lower than those recorded in previous crises such as the FTX collapse at 31% or the COVID-19 pandemic at 72%. This data reinforces the idea that, in the face of macroeconomic shocks, Bitcoin is maturing as an asset, reducing its unpredictability and approaching the perception of a safe haven traditionally assigned to gold or U.S. Treasury bonds.
At the same time, the U.S. Producer Price Index showed an unexpected slowdown in March 2025, with a month-over-month decline of 0.4%, fueling hopes for an inflationary cooling. However, traditional markets did not react positively: the Standard and Poor’s 500 fell by 0.2% and the Nasdaq remained flat. Michael van de Poppe, a crypto analyst, linked this behavior to Trump's tariff strategy, noting that economic data could be exacerbating uncertainty rather than alleviating it.
While the conventional financial system navigates turbulent waters, Bitcoin seems to be writing its own script. John Bollinger, creator of the Bollinger Bands, identified a potential W-shaped bottom in BTC's weekly charts, a technical pattern that often precedes sustained recoveries. Although it still requires confirmation, this indicator, combined with dollar weakness and resilience in the face of crises, suggests that Bitcoin could be preparing for a new bullish cycle, once again challenging traditional expectations. If you liked my content, don't forget to like, give a thumbs up, share with family and pro-Bitcoin friends, and follow me for the most updated news about our decentralized, digital, unique crypto asset called Bitcoin. Until next time, friends.