启源社李佳骏

Things in the Macroeconomic Sphere

1. New Developments on Platform X: The big boss of Company X has stated that users will soon be able to invest or trade on Platform X, feeling like there will be new tricks to play on this platform in the future.
2. Actions of Trump's Company: Trump's company has secretly reduced its stake in the crypto project WLFI. It's unclear why they did this, and whether there are any underlying motives, we are not too sure.
3. Login Credential Leak Incident: Big companies like Apple and Google have had 16 billion login credentials leaked. This is quite serious, causing people in the crypto industry to be particularly worried about security issues, as login credentials are so important; who wouldn’t panic if they were leaked?
4. Semler Scientific's Plan: Semler Scientific has appointed a Bitcoin strategy director and plans to hold 105,000 Bitcoins by the end of 2027. It seems they are quite confident in Bitcoin and want to make a big move in this area.
5. Weekly Heatmap Reveals Information: The weekly heatmap shows that around the price of 103,000, a lot of chips are concentrated here. This position is very important for the bulls, like their crucial defensive position that the bulls definitely need to hold tightly. #X超级应用转型

BTC Technical Analysis: Ordinary People Can Understand

1. Daily Situation: The daily line of BTC looks a bit like a bullish doji star. What does this mean? It indicates that the recent short-term price fluctuations are becoming smaller. You see, in the past two days, the price lows have been around the same level, resembling a flat bottom, suggesting that it feels like it's building momentum or consolidating.
2. Pattern Trend: From an overall pattern perspective, it has formed a triangle. It's still early for this triangle to reach its end, so in the short term, the price is likely to oscillate back and forth within this triangular formation.
3. Volume Performance: The volume over the past three days has not yet reached the standard where a decrease in volume would trigger a trend change. This is like a battle; to decide which direction to charge, there needs to be enough troops (volume) to support it. Without a significant increase in volume, it's likely that the price will continue to adjust according to this triangular formation in the short term.
4. 4-Hour Chart Situation: In the 4-hour chart, the current price is either near areas where chips are concentrated at different stages or below it. It's clear that it's consolidating sideways, with little price fluctuation.
5. Descending Channel Competition: The BTC price is within a descending channel, fiercely competing around the middle track of the channel, with both bulls and bears fighting hard, entering a heated phase. This middle track is crucial, acting like a line that splits the short-term trend into bullish and bearish sides, serving as a dividing line between bulls and bears.
6. Key Position Explanation:
- The upper track of the descending channel is a resistance level; if you want to short, you can refer to this position.
- The middle track mentioned earlier is the dividing line between bulls and bears.
- The lower track is a support level; if you want to go long, you can refer to this area. Moreover, the lower track is roughly at the same level as the long-term EMA moving average, forming a double support, making the support stronger.
7. Summary: From a short-term perspective, neither the bulls nor the bears have an absolute advantage, so the short-term price movement is mainly oscillating within a certain range. From the perspective of swing trading:
- If you previously shorted and still have a position now, you can hold onto it.
- If the price reaches a low point where multiple support levels coincide and resonate, it would be suitable to quietly set up a long position. $BTC

Let's talk about macro issues

1. Data aspect: The Federal Reserve did not change interest rates. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that prices are expected to rise significantly in the coming months, which suggests that rate cuts may not come as quickly in the future. This attitude is somewhat hawkish.
2. U.S. stock market: The "MicroStrategy effect" is causing quite a stir in the U.S. stock market, with 30 companies purchasing cryptocurrency as reserve assets, resulting in their stock prices averaging a fourfold increase! Because of this, cryptocurrency projects have gained new hype, and everyone is rushing to buy in.
3. Bitcoin spot ETF: The Bitcoin spot ETF is still attracting funds, but not as much as before. This is related to the current lackluster Bitcoin prices.
4. Bitcoin rainbow chart: The Bitcoin rainbow chart indicates that the current price is relatively cheap and approaching a suitable area for regular purchases. If you plan to invest for the long term, now is a low price, and it might be worth considering.
#鲍威尔发言 $BTC

Let's talk about the trading matters of BTC and ETH

The trading volume of BTC in the last 24 hours is 87.9 billion, while ETH is 80 billion. These two are like brothers in hardship; their trading volumes are not impressive, and lately, the trading volume has been really sluggish.

Our current trading plan is actually quite simple:

1. In the case of going long: If you want to go long, you have to wait for the price to break below 102,000 and 100,000. Why? Because if the price drops below 102,000 and those who went long above this price level haven't been forcibly liquidated yet, we will feel uneasy about going long at this point, as the risk seems a bit high.
2. In the case of going short: If you want to go short, just wait for the price to rise to the upper level of 110,000 before taking action. $BTC

Let's talk about the technical status of BTC and ETH

1. Daily level situation

1. Candlestick performance: After BTC price rose to the upper boundary and encountered resistance, it has closed with two bearish candlesticks. It has now hit the bottom trend line. Moreover, the top structure has also formed. If the support trend line below is broken, the trend could shift from 'oscillating down' to 'trending down,' which is a significant difference; a trending down could fall more sharply and persistently.
2. Bollinger Band changes: Previously, the three bands of the Bollinger Bands were parallel, but now all three are pointing downward. This means that the previous oscillation trend might be coming to an end, and a downward trend may begin.
3. Support points: The support of the bottom trend line is roughly at the same level as the Vegas support position, creating a resonance. For friends planning to invest in the medium to long term, it's essential to pay close attention to whether this support holds. If it breaks, it could lead to a full downward trend, and the market could become quite pessimistic.
4. MACD indicator: The MACD indicator shows that the bearish volume continues to expand, and the dead cross state is still above the zero axis, which indicates that the market's bearish strength is relatively strong.

ETH price surged to 2680 two days ago, and it looks like it may form a head and shoulders pattern. Currently, the resistance positions corresponding to the left shoulder and right shoulder are roughly parallel, and the price is at the neck line position, gaining support. There is a high probability of a small rebound today, but this price has been oscillating for a long time and is in the converging part of the oscillation's right side. So, after this small rebound, it is likely to continue falling, and there is a significant possibility of breaking the neck line position.

3. 1-hour level situation

If the price continues to go down, the Vegas indicator may change from the previous golden cross trend to the current state of moving averages intertwining, and then further shift to a dead cross trend. Today's resistance level can be observed at the small top neck line position above, around 2578. If the price rises to this vicinity, it may encounter resistance and struggle to go higher.

Overview of Major Events

1. There is big news from the United States. On the evening of June 17th, local time, the U.S. Senate passed the "Stablecoin Regulatory Framework Act" with a vote of 68 to 30. This act is mainly about setting rules for cryptocurrencies that are pegged to the U.S. dollar, known as stablecoins. Now that the act has passed the Senate, it needs to be sent to the House of Representatives for review. If the House also approves it, it will be sent to President Trump for signature.
2. At 2 AM tomorrow, on June 19th, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, so everyone should pay attention as it will have a significant impact on the financial market.
3. Today, at the opening ceremony of the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, the Governor of the People's Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, announced the establishment of an international operation center for the digital renminbi. This is to facilitate better international operations of the digital renminbi, promote the development of financial market services, and encourage more innovation in digital finance.
4. Additionally, in the cryptocurrency field, Coinbase announced on June 17th that they are seeking approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to use blockchain technology to provide stock trading services. If the application is approved, people may soon be able to buy and sell stocks through Coinbase's blockchain platform.

Things in the crypto world, everyone needs to pay attention

I don't know if everyone has noticed, but now in the crypto world, relying solely on those altcoins and hot coins to make a fortune is becoming less and less likely. In the end, what really helps one to stand firm is true skill and pure technology.

In the past, the schemes to exploit investors were somewhat concealed, but now it’s all out in the open, and most people can see it; it's simply too blatant! As long as you are determined to make a profit in the crypto world, there is sure to be a scheme waiting for you. The environment in the crypto world is really not great, with celebrity effects everywhere, and new hot coins being released in batches. But in reality, most of the funds are controlled by a small number of people.

When we are in the crypto world, we must protect ourselves well. As the old saying goes, "A cautious driver saves a thousand miles." No matter how strong the dam is, it can collapse due to a small ant hole. We must be careful about every thought and every action; never make mistakes, because once you take a wrong step, there will be no turning back, and there is no medicine for regret in this world.

Why am I sharing so much with everyone? It's because I've seen too many people get hurt badly and end up having no choice but to leave the crypto world and return to factory work. Let's not repeat their mistakes!

Let's talk about the technical situation of BTC

1. Weekly level: Last week, the BTC candlestick formed a doji, and the price is still oscillating within the previous range. Currently, it is overall fluctuating back and forth at a high level. If this continues, we need to be cautious about whether it will form a top structure, which means the price may start to decline.
2. Daily level: Previously, the price was rising continuously, but now it has turned into a fluctuating trend, and this oscillation resembles a flag pattern being consolidated. Both the high and low points have been tested more than twice. Yesterday, the price rose and reached the neckline corresponding to the evening star pattern at the top, while the high point of the upper line of the flag pattern is continuously decreasing. The price faced resistance and retreated, forming a shooting star candlestick. Given this situation, the price may continue to fluctuate downwards afterwards.
3. Support aspect: If the price continues to oscillate downward like this... (you didn't finish the original text here; you can complete it and send it to me again)
4. Bollinger Bands: The three lines of the Bollinger Bands are currently parallel, and the price is oscillating within them. Yesterday, the upper shadow line of the candlestick touched near the upper band, and it seems that the price may drop to the lower band, which can act as support.
5. 4-hour level: The price movement has formed a triangular consolidation pattern. The price has risen to the upper line of the triangle consolidation, which is also the resistance at the M top neckline. A bearish engulfing pattern has appeared in the candlestick. Today's support level is near the W bottom neckline, the middle Bollinger Band, and the Vegas support level, approximately around 106100. If this support level is broken today, we can look further down to the support at the lower line of the triangular consolidation at 104000 based on the fixed volume distribution chart.
6. KDJ indicator: The KDJ indicator has formed a death cross downward in the overbought zone, which generally indicates a slightly bearish trend, and the price may decline.

Let's talk about macro issues

1. Trump shouted for everyone to quickly evacuate Tehran, and as soon as he shouted, the prices in the crypto market dropped.
2. The Financial Times reported that Sun Yuchen's blockchain platform Tron plans to go public in the United States. It also mentioned that Tron plans to collaborate with Trump's second son, Eric Trump, to create a company similar to Strategy. However, Eric Trump has denied this, stating that he will not hold a position in the new company that intends to go public using Tron as a 'shell'.
3. Looking at various sectors of the market, many are declining, but the ARB ecosystem is performing quite well, which is different from others.

During this time, the counterfeit is struggling to survive. Looking back at the counterfeits laid out on April 23, I carefully calculated the profits:
$UNI current price 5.38 profit 48%,
$SHIB current price 13 loss 2%,
$DOGE current price 0.19 profit 15%,
AVAX current price 21.2 profit 6%,
ONDO current price 0.86 loss 1.1%,
TAO current price 395 profit 20%,
VET current price 0.024 profit 2%$
How has your spot trading been this month?

We are getting closer to washing up and sleeping earlier by brushing 16 points every day. In the future, there will be at most one or two times a month to claim rewards, and we are getting closer to withdrawal. I have no motivation to brush anymore. If I claim again, I will withdraw. Over 90,000 brushing 16 points, and 25,000 brushing 17 points. In total, there are 130,000 brushing above 16 points... So the points requirement will not be low, because on one hand, there are many people brushing high scores, and on the other hand, the number of registered people will also keep increasing...

Let's talk about the market

1. Macroeconomic Situation

1. This week, there are some important data points to keep an eye on, such as the revised value of the annualized quarterly GDP for the United States in the first quarter and the PCE price index; both are quite critical (four stars). Additionally, the President of the New York Federal Reserve, Williams, will be speaking, and the minutes from the May monetary policy meeting are also worth paying attention to.
2. Speaking of data unlocks this week, cryptocurrencies such as SUI, ZETA, and OP are facing significant unlocks, so everyone should be cautious as prices may drop.
3. Another matter is that the cumulative net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. has reached a new high, surpassing $44.4 billion.
4. The 212th Ethereum ACDE meeting has decided that Fusaka Devnet - 0 will go live on May 26.

2. BTC Technical Situation

1. From the weekly perspective, after BTC reached a new high, it formed a spiral candlestick at a high position. Overall, the trend is still bullish, but in the short term, the opinions of bulls and bears may differ. In terms of long-term trends, the weekly level seems to be moving in a channel; theoretically, the potential target for bulls is around 130,000. This week, attention should be paid to the mid-line of the channel. If the price is above the mid-line, it may continue to rise; if below, it might oscillate around the high level.
2. At the daily level, although a bearish engulfing candle appeared, the pullback strength is not significant, and there is no clear large-scale capital outflow. The KD indicator is overbought at a high level, and the MACD divergence has mostly corrected during the pullback.
3. On the 4H chart, a W-bottom pattern has formed; the key is whether the neck line can be broken. If it breaks, it may challenge the previous high, and at that time, one can look for buying opportunities based on the 123 rule during the pullback. If it does not break, it remains in the W-bottom range and one should be aware that a triple bottom or multiple bottoms may form.
4. Previously, there was a consolidation range (101500 - 106000), where there are many chips and strong support. Even if the price pulls back, for those of us buying spot, it is actually a good opportunity to position or increase holdings.

The current price position of BTC is not the expected double top!
In the chart below, the black line represents the price of BTC, and the blue line represents addresses holding 1k-10k BTC, which indicates the total amount of BTC they hold, i.e., the whales or large holders' positions.
In the previous round, when BTC was pushing above 60k, on-chain large holders began to reduce their positions. During the second peak, reaching the 67k+ phase, they continued to reduce positions. In the process of adjusting from 110k, large holders were still continuously buying in, with no significant reduction in positions, which means we are far from the top!
Forward $BTC

Macroeconomic Situation and ETH Trading Strategy

I. Macroeconomic Dynamics

1. Federal Reserve: The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision met expectations, the bearish impact is gradually weakening, and U.S. stocks closed higher collectively. Key points from Powell's speech are as follows:

- Tariffs may lead to a slowdown in economic growth, raising long-term inflation and unemployment rates.

- The increase or decrease of tariffs determines the timeline for the Federal Reserve to control inflation targets.

- The Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to adjust interest rates, with moderate policy constraints; rate cuts require more data support due to the negative impact of tariffs.

- Emphasizes the independence of the Federal Reserve, unaffected by Trump's comments on rate cuts.

2. Ethereum: The Ethereum mainnet has activated the Pectra upgrade, aimed at simplifying wallet operations, optimizing the validator mechanism, enhancing L2 scalability, and improving security. Specifically, it simplifies wallets through account abstraction, reducing transaction complexity; optimizes the validator mechanism, improving staking flexibility and alleviating network burden; increases blob capacity, lowering L2 transaction costs; and introduces new cryptographic tools and communication frameworks.

3. Trump Update: Trump announced a significant message at 10 PM tonight, with market speculation potentially directed at China. If true, the tariff war may shift from tension to easing, becoming a potential positive speculation point.

II. ETH Trading Strategy

It is recommended to gradually go long in the 1880 - 1850 range, with an average price of 1865, setting a stop-loss at 1820 and profit targets at 1930 - 1980 - 2050, balancing short-term and swing trades. The current price is relatively high, presenting risks of chasing highs and missing out, given the strong trend; it is advisable to adopt a phased operation and a trading model that synchronizes short-term and swing trades. #美联储FOMC会议

Warm reminder: The upgrade of Ethereum has nothing to do with the Ether in your hands.
The upgrade of Ethereum is just a network upgrade.
If you insist on establishing a connection, the more it upgrades, the less valuable it becomes. $ETH

Market Focus: Key Data and BTC Technical Analysis

1. Major Data Preview

This week's market focus is on Thursday, when the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the Bank of England's interest rate decision, and unemployment claims data will be released sequentially, and their impact should not be underestimated.

2. Overview of BTC Technicals

Daily Perspective

BTC price surged and then pulled back in a "V top" formation. It is essential to monitor the key support levels after the decline to look for buying opportunities. The Bollinger Bands have transitioned from an expanding to a contracting phase, and the price has space to the middle band (around 92400), allowing for long positions to be established here, with potential profits whether the price oscillates or rises afterward. The MACD has a dead cross above the zero line, indicating that bullish momentum is turning bearish, leaning towards a short-term bearish outlook.

4-Hour Level

The Vegas support is at 91500, forming a support zone of 91500 - 92400 with the daily Bollinger middle band. Currently, the Vegas indicator shows a golden cross; if the price reaches the Vegas level, it will be the first touch after the golden cross, providing strong support in this resonance zone. The Wyckoff method indicates that a complete distribution has occurred on the 4-hour chart, and it is currently in the SOW (Selling of Weakness) phase, with potential further declines; short positions can be taken at the upper line of the distribution or long positions at the lower support.

1-Hour Level

The price has broken below the Vegas level, turning support into resistance and resonating with the upper line of the consolidation. Short-term trading can focus on short positions around this zone; if this zone holds, a bullish outlook is not advisable.$BTC

ETH Market Analysis

Since the 23rd, the price of ETH has oscillated between 1700 - 1880. During this period, a larger ascending channel and a short-term descending channel have formed. From the 4-hour chart, the recent oscillation rhythm has slowed down, presenting a sideways trend, with intensified short-term battles between bulls and bears.

Support Levels:

- Support 1: 1800, which is the middle track of the descending channel.

- Support 2: 1760, which is the overlapping point of the lower track of the ascending and descending channels.

- Support 3: 1740, coinciding with the previous pullback low and the MA120 moving average.

- Support 4: 1680, which includes the previous rebound high, the breakout acceleration starting point, and the MA200 bull-bear line.

Support levels 2 - 4 resonate together, providing multiple supports conducive to long position setups. However, as the intervals between each support level differ, investors need to differentiate between short-term and swing trading strategies. $ETH

Let's talk about the technical aspects of BTC.

Daily Chart

The price has surged and then pulled back, forming a V-top. We need to monitor the key support levels after the decline to find long positions. The Bollinger Bands have shown a complete contraction after forming a trumpet shape; the price is at a distance from the Bollinger middle band support around 92400. Placing long orders in this vicinity could yield profits whether the market consolidates or rises. The MACD has shown a death cross above the water, and the bullish volume bars have turned bearish, indicating a bearish bias.

4-Hour Chart

The Vegas support is at 91500, creating a support zone around 91500 - 92400 in conjunction with the daily Bollinger middle band. Currently, there is a Vegas golden cross, and the price is touching the Vegas indicator for the first time since the golden cross, indicating strong resonance support. The Wyckoff method shows that a complete distribution has occurred in the 4-hour timeframe, and we are currently in the SOW (Selling Off Weakness) phase. In the short term, the price may continue to decline, so one could consider shorting at the upper line of the distribution or taking long positions at the lower bottom.

1-Hour Chart

The price has broken below the Vegas indicator, turning support into resistance, in resonance with the upper line of the consolidation. In the intraday short term, one can look to short around this area; if this area holds, we won't consider going long. For the medium term, I am preparing to enter around 92450-91600.

【BTC Trading Points】
Buy Point One: 91400 USDT (This position is the low point of the previous wave segment and approaches the daily EMA7 support area, and the integer level supports a rebound direction)
Buy Point Two: 90500 USDT (This range is a stronger support area, and the price may rebound here. Combined with volume return, it can be used as a step-by-step accumulation purchase point)
Long Stop Loss Point: 90000 USDT (Near the recent lowest price and protected by integer thresholds. If it breaks, it indicates that the short-term trend is weakening and should be avoided)
Sell Point One: 94600 USDT (Calculated based on the upper resistance level and recent highs, this is a key resistance level)
Sell Point Two: 95500 USDT (Considering strong resistance levels, it forms a potential short-term reversal or correction selling point, with certain risk and profit space)
Short Stop Loss Point: 96000 USDT (Breaking through this area represents a new change in price structure, and to prevent sudden market changes, one should exit and observe)