ETH Technical Analysis:
1. Yesterday's K-line and volume situation: Yesterday, ETH's K-line formed a doji, and the trading volume shrank, although the degree of volume contraction is not so severe anymore. One needs to be cautious, as there might be a sudden increase in volume in the short term, leading to price changes, which is a trend change.
2. Weekly situation: This week, ETH is about to close the weekly chart. So far, the weekly chart has been in the high range of 2300 - 2800, consistently forming dojis for 6 weeks. During this period, there was also a long upper shadow shooting star K-line with increased volume, and the price has been pushing up but unable to break through this range. As a result, the bullish strength has gradually dissipated, the price cannot rise, leading to stagnation, and the KD indicator shows overbought conditions, indicating a need for adjustment and repair.
3. Conflicts between indicators and cycles:
- From the indicators' perspective, the daily KD indicator is already in the oversold zone, theoretically suggesting that the price should rebound; however, the weekly KD indicator is overbought, indicating a tendency to adjust. This contradiction between the daily and weekly cycles should be considered; generally, one should follow the indications of the larger cycle, which is the weekly chart.
- The doji formed yesterday indicates that the balance of bullish and bearish forces is roughly equal in the short term, like the calm before a storm, suggesting that a trend change might be imminent. This also aligns with the RSI indicator being at the 50 watershed level.
4. 4-hour chart situation: In the 4-hour chart, ETH's short-term price has been consolidating within a small range. It is now nearing the end of a triangular pattern. Looking at the K-line performance after the large bearish line drop on the 17th, it feels like the current price rebound lacks strength.
5. Volume distribution situation: From the volume distribution chart, we can see that ETH's price is being pressed by areas where chips are concentrated. There are particularly many chips trapped at the high levels above, while the chips accumulated below are relatively fewer, indicating that the bearish side is putting considerable pressure on the market.
6. Potential downward pattern: ETH may develop a downward trend in an ABCD proportionate pattern. The low points in this pattern may coincide with the low point of the high-level consolidation range of 2300 over the past month and the Fibonacci 0.5 level. If a decline occurs, this could be the potential target for bears.
To summarize, from a technical perspective, ETH is overall in a weak consolidation state. If you want to wait for a clear signal before acting, you will have to wait for a confirmation signal on the right side. If you want to position yourself in advance, you can place an order and give it a try.
