Eternit

Tonight at two o'clock in the middle of the night, the United States will announce the latest FMC interest rate decision. However, according to the current CME forecast data, the probability of an interest rate cut tonight is infinitely close to 0. The market expectation is to keep interest rates unchanged, so What's important tonight is still not the result, but the process. It's Powell's speech after the meeting and the dot plot, which may cause market fluctuations.
Yesterday's historic change by the Bank of Japan also had a great impact on the market. Japan ended its eight-year negative interest rate policy and announced that it would raise the benchmark interest rate from -0.1% to 0 to 0.1% and cancel yield curve control (YCC). ) policy and stop buying risky assets such as ETFs. The sudden turn of the tide has a certain degree of negative impact on global risk assets. Although it is not as big as the previous U.S. interest rate hike, it still has a certain disruptive effect on the crypto market that is more sensitive to exchange rates. However, many analysts are currently It is believed that Japan will not make further interest rate increases. The market is currently digesting this wave of interest rate increases, and the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar has also begun to weaken.

Last night, the market ushered in a new wave of slump. The lowest price of Bitcoin reached 62505 this afternoon, and the rebound after the price was not that strong, which means that this wave of correction may continue. As for the reason for the decline, I believe everyone can guess it. Last night, the Bitcoin ETF was severely beaten by the outflow of Grayscale. GBTC smashed 643 million US dollars last night, creating the highest single-day outflow since the adoption of the ETF. Grayscale was smashed. At the same time, Fidelity FBTC once again pulled its crotch, with only 5.9 million US dollars flowing in last night, and other ETFs were not strong, so before BlackRock released the data last night, the gap in ETF fund outflows was as high as 610 million US dollars, which means It was said that BlackRock's inflow must exceed this amount to ensure a net inflow of funds, which caused the first wave of panic. Then after the news of BlackRock's announcement of an inflow of 450 million was released, the second wave of panic came again.

The market as a whole entered a correction period over the weekend. Bitcoin fell from last week's high of 73777 to Sunday's low of 64533. The drop was close to $10,000. Of course, most of the drop was completed last Friday. The reason for the drop I also explained in last week’s article that there are two main points. First, ETF capital inflows have slumped. The net inflows for two consecutive days last Thursday and Friday were less than 200 million, even before BlackRock released the data. , the market was once panicked and funds began to flee. The second point is that the U.S. Democratic Party put pressure on the SEC, asking the SEC not to approve other crypto ETFs, and then denied the significance of Bitcoin ETFs. This still caused a certain amount of negative sentiment for traditional institutions. .

It is another day to witness history. The market has been grinding around 6w9 for a week, and finally chose to make an upward breakthrough at noon today, and broke through the two integer barriers of 7w and 7w1 along the way. It looks like this situation may have a big impact today. The probability of breaking through 7w3. In fact, I guessed the trend of the pie today very well last week. At that time, the first attack on 6w9 failed, and then I inserted a big needle downward and directly hit 5w9. I compared it with December 2020. After the trend, I found that the previous high will need to be adjusted for 7-10 days before it is officially broken. Especially after the first impact on the previous high, there will often be a sharp correction later, so I predict that Bitcoin will officially break through in a week. , and then stood on 7w and 7w1 all the way. It seems that Bitcoin really respects the cycle today. Today is simply a repeat of December 16, 2020. Interested friends can go and see the moves at that time. I personally think the pie is big. It is very possible to rush to 100,000 before the halving. After all, 25 days after the new high in December 2020, the price of Bitcoin doubled again, so if it doubles again at the current price, it will be 140,000. Considering the current Bitcoin price The market value of the currency is larger, so the increase may be somewhat discounted, so the prediction of hitting 100,000 in the next month is reasonable.

With today's rebound, we once again see the strength of the sector. L2 said earlier that it is due to the impending upgrade of Cancun, the AI ​​track is still strong, fet agix tao has reached a new high after this rebound, and other projects on the track are also trending far. Super large market; wif has more than doubled after being listed on Binance yesterday. This wave is also not afraid of the market correction, and it has taken the lead again. Meme bonk, which is also in the solana ecosystem, has also risen together. These two projects have increased in the past seven days. It has exceeded 200%. It is no exaggeration to say that the entire meme sector is still the main battlefield for retail investor funds. The strength of ETH has not only brought L2 flying, but also the two sectors of public chain and DEFI have been favorably affected. The trends of sol aptos ftm uni ray sushi dydx are also quite strong. Affected by the news that Do Kwon won the extradition case, several tokens in the terra series, LUNA lunc ustc, all took off. Among them, lunc nearly doubled from low to high.

Since last week, the market has entered the stage of taking turns to pull the market. Looking back at the market last week, you will find that every afternoon, the market starts to take off, and mainstream assets also take off. In the morning of Asian time, mainstream assets will experience a short-term sideways trend. Now it's time for the Shanzhai to start performing. This shows that the current main force in the market comes from the off-site. External funds pull BTC, and then it is transmitted downward to the mainstream-copycat-Tugou. The same thing happened last weekend. The market basically did not move during the two days of the weekend, and the trading volume also increased. The decrease is because institutional investors and Bitcoin ETFs are taking a break, but the main force in the counterfeit market is retail investors. The meme section continues to take off this weekend. Pepe floki has risen nearly 4 times in the past seven days, and wif bonk has also broken through new highs one after another. Shib Doge has also doubled its performance in the past few days, and its market value has directly rushed to the 10th and 12th places. The entire meme section is basically not timid. In addition to memes, Inscription, public chains and other tracks also have good weekend trends.

Last night, the United States announced the PCE price index for January. This data is the most important basis for the Federal Reserve to cut and raise interest rates. The data showed that the core PCE year-on-year data in January fell to 2.8% from the previous value of 2.9%, consistent with expectations. PCE inflation also dropped from 2.6% in the previous year to 2.4% year-on-year, which is also in line with expectations. We can see that although both data are within expectations, they have indeed dropped, especially the 2.8% core PCE inflation data is far away from the Fed’s target. 2% has taken another step forward, so this data can be regarded as positive. As for many media are obsessed with the increase in the month-on-month data, I think there is no need. Firstly, this data is not a key consideration of the Federal Reserve. Secondly, although it has increased, it has It is still in line with expectations, so it cannot be regarded as negative. CME's expectations for interest rate cuts have increased after the data came out. The main manifestation is that the probability of interest rate cuts in May exceeds 25%, and the probability of interest rate cuts in June exceeds 67%. The current CME's expectations for interest rate cuts throughout the year are 3-4 times.

Yesterday, it was said that there is a 70% chance that this wave of pie will exceed 100,000 U.S. dollars. As a result, institutions are even more optimistic. This morning, I saw more than one institution predicting that the price of this round of bull market pie will exceed 100,000 U.S. dollars, such as the latest report from investment bank Benchmark. It priced BTC at $125,000 by the end of 2025, and raised the target price of micro-strategy stocks from 860 to $990. Morgan Creek Capital also predicted that the pie will exceed $150,000 this round, and ETH will reach $15,000.
At present, the trend of the pie has a tendency to break through. It seems that it will go straight to 60,000 today, and it is definitely not the trading time of the United States. We all know that this rise must be led by Wall Street. There was a net inflow of ETFs last night. It has reached another $570 million, of which BlackRock has $520 million. Grayscale’s selling pressure also dropped to a record low last night, with only 1,000 pieces reduced. This is the main driver of the rise, but now the Asian time is big. However, it continues to break new highs, which means that the world has reached a consensus on rising prices, and the mad bull has become unstoppable.

The big pie has unsealed and skyrocketed by 10% overnight. There is no turning back. The ox-bow has been fired this time. The probability of the pie breaking through 100,000 is at least 70%. Everyone must grasp it. This halving of the market may be the last to get rich. Opportunity! ETH/BTC fell back to 0.057, but this is not a bad thing. The stronger the benefits of spot ETFs, the greater the potential for ETH to rise!
The first round of section rotation has been completed, and the next step is to lay out the sections in order! The three king sections in 2024 are AI public chain and BTC ecosystem. The most noteworthy concepts in the primary market are modular parallel EVM depin restaking DA and gamefi!

Last night, the Bitcoin spot ETF opened normally. Grayscale GBTC selling pressure was not affected by last Friday's FUD and continued to reach a new historical low. Only BTC worth US$107 million was outflowed. However, other ETF institutions did not slow down their pace of taking over. Only Bei Ryder has increased its holdings of Bitcoin worth US$137 million, Fidelity's capital inflow is also close to US$40 million, and the net inflow of BTC across the entire network is close to US$70 million. From the data, it can be seen that the general trend of ETF net inflow has not changed. In addition, Grayscale CEO has recently begun to urge regulatory agencies to approve the listing options of spot Bitcoin ETFs as soon as possible. In short, all formal derivatives tools related to encryption will be available in the future, and the market value benchmark is only gold.

As Grayscale smashed another 15,000 pieces last night, the price of BTC also fell below $40,000. However, according to the news revealed last night, the main force behind this wave of Grayscale smashing was FTX. Since ETF After the listing, Grayscale spent a total of more than 2.5 billion US dollars, of which 1 billion came from FTX. If this report is true, it is definitely a good thing for the market, because the biggest short bullet has been fired, and the market should rebound. .
Of course, as the market declines, more FUD has emerged. In addition to Grayscale’s $22 billion pie to be smashed, Mentougou’s BTC will be unlocked in the next two months. Currently, Mentougou holds a large amount of The number of coins exceeds 140,000, and the value exceeds US$5 billion. Moreover, the average holding price of this part of Bitcoin is less than 1,000 dollars, so this is definitely a big negative for the market.

Bitcoin's trend today continues to fluctuate in a range. From the weekly perspective, the downward signal has weakened. The daily trend continues to fluctuate sideways. The 4H trend crosses together and is stronger than yesterday. Comprehensive overall trend analysis continues to range in the short term. The probability of shock is high, and the current trend is still relatively weak. In the short term, there is a need to bottom out again, but in the medium and long term, the main focus is on bullishness. At present, ETF management agencies are continuously increasing their holdings every week, which is also true in the true sense. With the intervention of institutions, the circulation of Bitcoin will only become less and less in the future. BTC will become even rarer after the production reduction in 2024, so 2024 will be the flashpoint of a super bull market.

Bitcoin will not resume its upward trend so quickly in the short term, but there is no reason to fall sharply. It is currently oscillating in a range, and this position requires repeated testing of whether the bottom support level is firm. The support below the 4-hour level is around 41700, and the resistance above is around 44300.

The trend of Ether is still stronger than that of the broader market, and ETH’s presence is now very strong. The bullies on the chain are taking off. Various financings are asking for ETH. Next, there will be an upgrade in Cancun. With expectations for ETFs, I feel that ETH is The rhythm of taking off.
ETF trading entered its third day last night, and the trading volume is still very large. According to statistics, the three-day trading volume of ETF trading has exceeded the US$10 billion mark, and yesterday the trading volume of Bitcoin spot ETF exceeded the 500 US dollars launched in 2023 in the United States. The single-day trading volume of ETFs is three times the total, which is enough to illustrate the popularity of spot ETFs. Although Grayscale’s GBTC accounts for the majority of the 10 billion, everyone knows that Grayscale should continue to ship goods, and BlackRock is the fastest growing among them, and with the size of BlackRock , the growth scale of ETFs in the future may be much larger than that of the previous Grayscale. Grayscale can attract more than 600,000 BTC. Once BlackRock is ready, the scale may be several million. You must know that the current circulating Bitcoins are only Around 18 million, so the pricing power of BTC may also be controlled by BlackRock bosses in the future.

There were no Bitcoin spot ETF transactions during the two days over the weekend, but the market continued to decline. The market fell below 42,000 points again this morning. Many friends are wondering whether it is good news for the spot ETF to pass, and how it will be listed. After trading, there was a sharp drop, especially on Friday when the price dropped from close to 46,000 to the lowest price of 41,500. This was not a good thing, it was clearly a panic attack.
In fact, I have reminded everyone about this before. Wall Street has gone through so much trouble to put ETFs on the market not just to take orders from you. What they want to do is to try their best to wash you out, and then do the pull-up operation. So Now is the process of washing. In addition, the large amount of BTC held by Grayscale is also part of the selling pressure. It is said that 1.7 billion US dollars of BTC have flowed out of Grayscale in the past few days, which also means that the same amount of BTC has been converted into cash. This is why Even if big guys like BlackRock couldn’t match Grayscale’s trading volume in the past few days, the current situation is that many Grayscale customers are fleeing to other ETFs with lower rates. Although theoretically selling GBTC Buying another spot ETF will not affect the price, but there will inevitably be stampedes in the process, and some people simply make profits and flee without buying other ETFs. These reasons will also cause the currency price to suffer; in addition, there is another recent one The negative event occurred due to the selling of FTX. During this period, FTX also took advantage of the ETF to sell a large number of crypto assets, which was also one of the reasons for the continuous decline in currency prices.

According to historical experience, the realization of good news is often the periodic high point of the market, and there is a high probability that there will be a wave of market reshuffles for at least a month. Therefore, I have been operating with small positions recently, but the harvest is still good.
There are thousands of opportunities in the market. In times of high risk, there is nothing wrong with us wanting to gain more profits. However, the premise is to better control the risks. Therefore, I have not had a full position recently, let alone a full position. Leverage, fortunately, I have completely experienced every wave of rising market prices in 2022 and 2023, so I have some experience in controlling the overall rhythm. Therefore, in terms of layout varieties, Don’t buy everything, try to participate in projects with potential and explosive power. So far, the ARB, ENS, MASK, and ETC that have been deployed have actually given me the results I want, although I have not sold at the highest point. , however, the personal direction is right and the personal goal selection can be achieved, this is enough!

At around 5 o'clock this morning, the SEC's official Twitter account posted a message saying that the Bitcoin spot ETF had been approved, and the price of BTC instantly exceeded the previous high of 47,000 US dollars. The appearance of this news made those who heard the news and made transactions immediately ran away. Enter.
Five minutes later, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler tweeted that the SEC’s official Twitter account had been hacked and that the news that the Bitcoin spot ETF had been approved was false.
Then BTC fell from 47,857 US dollars to 44,545 US dollars, a drop of nearly 7%. This back-and-forth own goal hurt those players who listened to the news and made contracts and leverage.

In the morning, before closing the weekly line, the market ushered in a wave of significant backtests. ARB once again returned to below 1.7 dollars. Yesterday's MASK, which made a huge profit, once again returned to below 4 dollars. Therefore, when playing the band, remember to achieve your goal. After setting the profit target, remember to make a profit in time. Don’t always think about selling at the highest point. Yesterday, the MASK reached a maximum of around 5.35. This is also the golden section of 61.8 since the previous high point fell. The dealer must know how to control the market. !

Doge and etc, which made everyone ambush yesterday, did not receive the scheduled supplementary increase. Don't worry, after the big market ETF is passed, I personally expect that the hype of the Ether ETF will usher in, and the Cancun upgrade of Ether will be added later. The burning deflation mechanism, staking mechanism, etc. will definitely push Ether to a position above US$3,000. Everyone should know that since BlackRock applied for a Bitcoin spot ETF last year, the currencies of the big pie ecosystem, such as stx, t, etc. are all performing well, so when the Ethereum series starts to hype, etc. will definitely benefit. In addition, the ETF has not performed much this time. I personally expect that when they start to make up for the increase, it will probably have to wait until the big market ETF is passed. , Therefore, now is the stage for us to make arrangements in advance. No matter how the price fluctuates, the opportunities for etc are still relatively certain. We can build positions in batches by buying small at small falls and buying at big falls.

大盘行情方面，整体目前个人的操作逻辑还是以小仓位参与为主，重仓还是继续等待更为确定性的机会！
1，比特币如果还有高点，48500-57500是最大的压力区间，其中最主要的一个拐点是52088，这是69000牛市结束以来反弹的最后一个高点，如果反弹突破52088，那可以确定大熊市已经彻底结束，69000一定被突破，那么未来我们一定是回调找做多的机会。
2，如果反弹不过52088，甚至反弹不过0.618，即48500，那15476开始的只是一个反弹，还有微弱的机会跌破15476(当然我认为这个可能性目前不考虑)，至少反弹后还有下跌，下跌看哪里我们接着看。
3，这波上涨是从24901开始的，还不能确定上涨已经结束，所以45879还不能确定就是高点，我们假设45878就是24901开始的这波上涨的高点，那么32914-37865就是目前最大的回调区域，当然也可以回调更小，但基本32914-37865这个区间大概率有大反弹。假设45879是15476反弹的顶部，那回调区域就看27089-34265。
4，目前来看日线还在上涨趋势中，并不能认定45879就是24901开始的这波反弹的顶部，更不能说

The market over the weekend will be dominated by a shock pattern. According to hourly chart analysis, the bottom seems to be gradually moving upward, indicating that market sentiment is gradually improving. Based on current technical indicators and market dynamics, the market is more likely to show an upward shock this weekend. Therefore, for currency holders, the main strategy recommendation is to hold the currency and wait and see, pay attention to market trends, and wait for clearer market direction signals.

It is becoming more and more difficult to operate altcoins. The newly listed coins on Binance have attracted on-site funds, but they have no profit-making effect. They are all suppressed by the daily moving average and continue to fall. If the market pulls back as expected, Bitcoin will most likely stabilize between 3.8 and 4W. At that time, these new coins will have good buying opportunities, and if they rebound, they will exceed the increase of most currencies.

From 2024 to 2025, the most popular tracks have been basically confirmed. They are the Bitcoin ecological track, the depin track, and the game and rwa tracks. AI will also explode, but I don’t think it will dominate. AI is more of a Rub the concept.
Therefore, you will definitely not go wrong by planning or researching around the most popular tracks. If you have a large amount of funds, I recommend buying mainstream or higher market value public chains, such as btc, eth, sol, avax, icp, etc. If you have a small amount of funds, I don’t think it is necessary to allocate assets with such a high market value. , instead look for early hot track projects with lower market value. When you see such a target, I think you should study it carefully, because once you make the right investment, 10x is easy, and your return on capital will increase instantly.