With Grayscale dumping another 15,000 bitcoins last night, the price of BTC also fell below $40,000. However, according to the news revealed last night, the main force of this wave of Grayscale dumping was FTX. Since the listing of the ETF, Grayscale has dumped a total of more than US$2.5 billion, of which US$1 billion came from FTX. If this report is true, then it is definitely a good thing for the market, because the biggest short-selling bullets have been used up, and the market should rebound.

Of course, as the market fell, more FUD also emerged. In addition to Grayscale's $22 billion BTC to be smashed, Mentougou's BTC will be unlocked in the next two months. Currently, Mentougou holds more than 140,000 bitcoins, with a value of more than $5 billion. Moreover, the average holding price of this part of Bitcoin is less than $1,000, so this is definitely a big negative for the market.

In addition to Grayscale and Mt. Gox, the US government still has 100,000 Silk Road-related bitcoins waiting to be sold. Previously, it was generally believed that this would be dealt with after the ETF was approved, so this is also a potential threat to the market; the last FUD is Grayscale's $ETHE. Grayscale currently holds US$7-8 billion worth of ETH, including a lot of FTX. According to the trend of GBTC after its conversion to ETF, FTX should also wait for $ETHE to be converted into ETF before dumping it on the market. This news is a threat to ETH in the future. The continued decline of ETH in the past few days should also be related to this FUD.

Of course, this has always been the rule in the cryptocurrency circle. Once the market falls, all kinds of FUD will emerge. If Grayscale stops selling coins crazily in the next few days, or the selling volume decreases, then the coin price will most likely make a V-reversal, and then all these FUD may disappear. So I really don’t recommend that everyone pay too much attention to this kind of news. As small investors, we only need to know that the long-term market will definitely go up. As for how tortuous the process is, it actually has little to do with us.

At present, judging from the data of liquidation, more than 120,000 people have left the market, and the amount of liquidation has exceeded 300 million in 24 hours, which has slaughtered the bull market for two consecutive days. Therefore, at any time, after we earn our ideal returns, we must remember to control our hands and not stay in high-risk areas, thinking about making short-term profits by swing trading. It is easy to stand guard at high positions. No one can sell at the highest position. We only need to sell at the position of our profit target! After selling, don’t rush to enter the market, but wait patiently for the market to give a more cost-effective position again, and then we will go in with a heavy position, so that we can have a greater chance of winning and be invincible!

ARB has also fallen below $1.6 and is now around $1.56. As expected, if Bitcoin retests 35,000 or below, then ARB will most likely adjust to around $1.3. Therefore, it is not a big problem to ambush at the current position. We can execute the strategy we formulated before, buy more when the price drops sharply, and buy less when the price drops slightly! If it really goes below $1.3, it is an area worthy of our heavy ambush. The real bottom will definitely give us enough time to enter the market. Therefore, it is enough to ambush at the moment. We can wait for a period of adjustment to see in which range it will stay, and then we can intervene with heavy positions when the opportunity arises.

There are only 90 days left for Bitcoin to halve. The market is likely to start hyping the halving in advance in February. After all, the halving in 2020 started after March 12. With the lessons learned from the past, I expect the start time may be earlier, and it is very likely to start in February. After this wave of halving, the reward of one Bitcoin block will be halved from the original 6.25 Bitcoins to 3.125 Bitcoins. According to the current computing power, the cost of mining one BTC may be close to $40,000. Therefore, if the price of the currency does not double during the halving, then half of the current market computing power will be eliminated. I expect there may be a balance point between price and computing power, such as a 30% drop in computing power and a 30% increase in price. In addition, the halving of $bch $bsv will be earlier than BTC. It is expected that $bch will halve in 73 days and $bsv will halve in 81 days. These two coins are the progeny of BTC, and it is estimated that they will also be hyped in a halving market. You can pay attention to it.

After DOGE rose for a wave, it did not usher in a sustained rise. XRP also should have made up for the rise but did not get out of its own rise. However, looking at the long term, currently, these two varieties are at a relatively low level. DOGE has the support of Musk, and there will be no major problems in the future. As for XRP's listing expectations and hype, it depends on when. Secondly, I also planned the CFX project today. There will be a Hong Kong Carnival in April. Looking at the performance of CFX in 23 years last year, it was still quite eye-catching. If we want to buy, we will plan the leader. Therefore, we can still look forward to the expectations of CFX. The second is CHZ. The Asian Cup is in progress recently, so the current performance is relatively strong. Therefore, as long as there are relevant news events driving it, we can ambush in advance. It is only a matter of time for the rise!

Market Summary

Bitcoin has ended its upward trend and is adjusting downward in the short term. I would say this is the trick of Wall Street. Everyone thinks that the ETF will rise sharply after it passes, but how can the dealers let you make money so easily? Therefore, they must suppress the price, and then when you are desperate, they will pull the market up. However, the bull market trend will not end, so don't worry. Now is the best time to make a layout. The idea of ​​buying more when the price falls is right.

Ethereum continued to plummet along with the broader market. Today there was an ETH fud, saying that a large portion of the $8 billion in ETH held by Grayscale is from FTX. In this case, even if ETH's ETF is approved, it will face the same fate as BTC now, that is, being dumped. So this is a big fud for ETH. Of course, I think this is just bad news deliberately released by the shorts when the market fell, and the actual impact on the currency price is not that great. Next, we will still focus on ETH's internal narrative, such as the Cancun upgrade, the launch of the primary market, or the re-emergence of ecological projects. In short, at this time, you must hold on to your ETH spot and don't get washed out.

1.23-1.24 point reference:

BTC: The current resistance is 39300, and it will stop at 38500 for a short time, but there is a need to go back to 37650. Take a lot near 37650, and take profit when it rebounds to around 38500. (Short-term players do the opposite, I only do low-long, you get off when I get on).

ETH: The 2302 entry point mentioned last night has been reached today. It has already exited near the 2350 level after rebounding in the morning. The current resistance is 2280. It will briefly stop near 2174, but there is a need to retrace to 2122. You can wait for 2122 to enter long positions normally, and stop profit at the rebound of 2170. You can enter 0.5% of the spot position.

SOL: The 80-79 mentioned yesterday has been reached today. The current resistance is 82.50. Although the rebound is weak, this is the first time that it has fallen below the 80.00 mark, so the small range of 79-84 will linger for a while. There is a demand to continue to step back to 75. Therefore, low longs can wait to enter the market around 74.85-75.50 in advance, and cover positions at 72.150. The stop profit is around 79-80 (if it is short, go short around 84, and the best stop profit is 80.15 or 76.50). It will not go below 70 this month, because the 3-day and 5-day MACD are still far away from zero, so it is not advisable to be overly bearish in the short term.

DOGE: Short-term resistance: 0.07875. It fell back to around 0.075 today. It will fall back to around 0.07025 later. The rebound may be around 0.07500 (I saw a retracement when it rebounded to 0.09040 the day before yesterday, and I don’t want to say too much).

Finally, there are still many things that are not written down, such as specific opportunities and specific decisions. These things are often not something that can be summarized in one article.

The new year has begun, and we are creating a high-quality circle, which mainly explains various basic industry knowledge of the currency circle, the rotation of hot sectors, the basic methods of identifying tops and bottoms, how to better grasp this bull market, and so on. If you are interested, you can contact me.