Last night, the United States announced the PCE price index for January. This data is the most important basis for the Federal Reserve to cut and raise interest rates. The data showed that the core PCE year-on-year data in January fell to 2.8% from the previous value of 2.9%, consistent with expectations. PCE inflation also dropped from 2.6% in the previous year to 2.4% year-on-year, which is also in line with expectations. We can see that although both data are within expectations, they have indeed dropped, especially the 2.8% core PCE inflation data is far away from the Fed’s target. 2% has taken another step forward, so this data can be regarded as positive. As for many media are obsessed with the increase in the month-on-month data, I think there is no need. Firstly, this data is not a key consideration of the Federal Reserve. Secondly, although it has increased, it has It is still in line with expectations, so it cannot be regarded as negative. CME's expectations for interest rate cuts have increased after the data came out. The main manifestation is that the probability of interest rate cuts in May exceeds 25%, and the probability of interest rate cuts in June exceeds 67%. The current CME's expectations for interest rate cuts throughout the year are 3-4 times.

Although the price of the pie fell back yesterday, and even fell below 61,000 for a time, the enthusiasm of institutions remains undiminished. Yesterday, BlackRock alone increased its holdings of more than 10,000 BTC, about 638 million US dollars, creating history records, and it is said that this wave accounted for 40% of the total inflow of all BlackRock’s ETFs. You must know that BlackRock’s IBIT funds only account for 0.2% of the 10 trillion US dollars it manages. It is this 0.2% fund category that bears A capital increase of nearly 50%.

So everyone should be able to see the degree of fomo that Wall Street capital has towards BTC. When we speculate in currencies, we often pay attention to the ratio of TVL and market capitalization. Usually, the higher the TVL, the more valuable the market value of the project. In fact, the same is true in traditional markets, such as Bailey Deibit has assumed 50% of the incremental funds with a proportion of 0.2%, which shows that the scale of IBIT is seriously underestimated. Normally, the share of the sector that can attract 50% of the increase must account for at least 20% of the total funds. OK, that means ibit still has 100 times the room for growth. Besides, the scale of funds managed by BlackRock is 10.2 trillion. 20% is 2.04 trillion. The current total market value of the pie is only 1.2 trillion. In this way, If BlackRock IBIT achieves its goal, the market value of the pie will have to increase at least 5-10 times. By then, the price of Bitcoin will reach US$300,000 to $600,000, so the imagination of the pie is very large. .

Market analysis:

BTC: After Bitcoin reached its highest level of 64,000, there was a short-term adjustment. At present, the trend is not broken from the 2-hour level. In fact, the trend has already arrived. Even short-term adjustments cannot affect the upward trend of the long-term trend. Therefore, every drop is the best opportunity to participate. Currently, there is no support signal at the 4-hour level of Bitcoin, but 60,000 will be a strong support point. Every time it falls, Wall Street’s capital tycoons are eyeing it and will rush to buy chips.

ETH: The exchange rate of ETH against BTC has rebounded compared to yesterday and is now back above 0.055. It is still effective to adjust ETH and BTC positions according to the exchange rate. That is, after ETH/BTC falls below 0.055, you can consider exchanging BTC for ETH. The rule Even if it falls near 0.005, the rebound will be very strong. Once the exchange rate reaches or 0.006, you can consider exchanging ETH for BTC. In the past few months, when the eth exchange rate reached 0.006, the price of BTC plummeted. Of course, this only refers to the positions of ETH and BTC. In fact, the trend of ETH is still stronger than that of most counterfeit assets, and it is one of the few investment targets that can be held for a long time.

Mainstream coins: Mainstream coins have also seen a wave of compensatory gains in the past two days. The animal and storage sectors have experienced relatively good prices. As long as the market stabilizes in the near future, there should be a wave of compensatory gains in several other sectors.

APT

The current price is 11.58 for a position, and one replenishment is around 10.5. (Not necessarily available)

1. A few days ago, we announced our cooperation with $ondo and released the rwa roadmap announcement in April. ondo has just announced that it will introduce traditional securities to the chain and may have some in-depth cooperation with apt.

2. As a new public chain, the increase in this round is lower than $sui and $sei.

3. K-line upward trend.

FRONT currency exchange expectation PLA currency exchange PDA nearly doubled the increase. It is recommended to pick up FRONT on dips. The ideal receiving range is around 0.543, extreme 0.49 (more difficult), pick up around 0.55 and PDA has gained dozens of points.

ARK

I found that in the past few days, the stick system has begun to move and increase the volume! Just go to UP to open the volume ratio ranking! As soon as I picked out ARK, I started to pull it hard, but I never dared to send it out! Now it has fallen back to around 0.94. You can control it yourself.

After being listed on Binance, the last wave of pullback was very fierce! A very powerful Qiangzhuang Coin should also have high market control! We can expect a wave of gains

There have been some voices in the market recently saying:

Bitcoin may experience some corrections in the near future. If there is a correction, it may fall back to around $50,000 and then reach a new high.

At present, Bitcoin is 62,000, and there is a possibility of a 10% correction in the market, but I think the probability of a 20% to 50,000 correction is very small.

There are two suggestions for action:

1. If you are a more conservative investor

You can reduce your position by 1/4, why is it 1/4? The callback prediction this time is not as certain as last time.

But the big bull is still behind, so if you reduce your position and take profit too much, you are afraid that it will be lost without a correction later, so you should leave 3/4 of your position on the car for insurance.

If your position is not full at the moment, there is no need to reduce even 1/4 of the position. It would be better to reduce the position to 8% of the total position.

Why is the position so high at 80%? Because I still think it will rise later, and the target price will be around 100,000 within this year.

2. If you are more aggressive, or are afraid that you will not be able to take it back later if you reduce your position now.

Then don’t lighten up your position! Profit and loss cost performance is not high

A 10% correction is possible, but it is more likely to go up to 8-9w. Compared with the current price, there is still 30-50% room, so if I hold it now, the profit-loss ratio is between 3-5. And if you get off the car, you may not be able to pick him up.

3. My suggestion is:

For some altcoins that are more profitable, you might as well reduce your positions a little and move them to other altcoins that are not pulling in the market, and just wait for them to take off!

Finally, there are still many things that have not been written in, such as specific opportunities and specific decisions. These things often cannot be summarized in one article.

Create a high-quality circle, mainly to explain various basic industry knowledge in the currency circle, and recommend coins with market potential and altcoins! The rotation of hot spots, the basic methods of identifying tops and bottoms, how to better grasp this bull market, and a series of other knowledge, if you are interested, you can contact me.