Last night, the Bitcoin spot ETF opened normally. The selling pressure of Grayscale GBTC was not affected by the FUD last Friday and continued to hit a new historical low. Only $107 million worth of BTC flowed out, while other ETF institutions did not slow down their pace of taking over. BlackRock alone increased its holdings of Bitcoin worth $137 million, and Fidelity's capital inflow was close to $40 million. The net inflow of BTC across the entire network was close to $70 million. From the data, it can be seen that the general trend of ETF net inflows has not changed. In addition, Grayscale's CEO has recently begun to urge regulators to approve the listing options of spot Bitcoin ETFs as soon as possible. In short, all formal derivative tools related to encryption will come out in the future, and the only asset with market value benchmark is gold.
Market Analysis
Bitcoin has been falling in the U.S. time and rebounding in the Asian time in the past few days. I personally think that this wave is suspected to be profit-taking. However, as the selling pressure of ETFs gradually stabilizes, I believe that the upward trend of the market has been adjusted back. What's more, there is a halving effect in the future, and various Bitcoin ecosystems may explode in a few years, so BTC still has huge room for upward development in the long run.
Ethereum continues to follow the market, and its daytime rebound trend is stronger than that of Bitcoin, indicating that the main force in the market during the day is mainly retail investors. Like Bitcoin, Ethereum will have the expectations of Cancun upgrade and ETF in the future, and ETH is still the first beneficiary in the TGE narrative, so as long as the bull market starts normally, the upward ceiling of the ETF will be very high.
In the past two days, after experiencing a wave of pullbacks, the second-layer network currencies have begun to move again. Today, let’s take a look at the mid-term trend of OP. OP is the first currency issued on the second-layer network. Although its value is slightly lower than that of ARB, it is also the first currency issued.
After OP experienced a pullback to stop the decline, it started to fluctuate. It is necessary to analyze the strength of the bulls and bears in the entire fluctuation zone to determine the next market trend.
1. The callback did not break the previous low, and the low point gradually increased, which shows that the bulls began to become strong.
2. The retracement amplitude in the oscillation zone begins to narrow, and the short volume is weakening.
3. In the midline, this oscillation zone can be regarded as a new round of bottom oscillation, and the oscillation zone forms a double bottom.
4. We have now reached the upper pressure level. If the previous high is broken, it will mean that a new round of upward trend is about to begin.
5. From the perspective of the Bollinger Bands, the previous high is also a pressure level, but after such a long period of oscillation, and with the bullish force in the oscillation zone beginning to strengthen, a breakthrough is a high-probability event.
Through the above analysis, we can see that the OP callback is over, and a new round of rise is about to begin. If the neckline of the double bottom, that is, the position of the white line, is broken, the subsequent upward trend will be formed. The pressure above the midline is at $4.28. Overall, OP is a pullback after breaking the previous high, and the subsequent space is still very good. Although OP's long-term layout has missed the best time, there are many mid-term and short-term opportunities. As long as you can understand the trend of the market, there will never be a lack of opportunities.
Nvidia's market value increased by another $500 billion at the beginning of the year, close to the market value of Tesla. At the beginning of 2024, Nvidia's stock price continued to rise. In about 6 weeks, its market value increased by about $500 billion, almost equivalent to the entire Tesla's market value.
Nvidia's stock price has soared more than 200% last year, driven by AI. So far this year, it has risen another 40%, adding $489 billion to its market value at the close of Monday, to $1.71 trillion. This means that Nvidia is likely to surpass Amazon and Google's parent company Alphabet to become the third most valuable American company after Microsoft and Apple.
ps: Good news for the leading token in the Ai sector
AI track: Due to the rise of NVIDIA, there will definitely be many opportunities in the AI track. After all, US stocks are often ahead of our small circle, so this track will definitely run through the entire bull market, and we can also find some traces of future speculation in some of the latest products launched by BN! Representative products include: the old RNDR, FET focus layout, new products include AI, NF
The next track to learn is modular blockchain, a new concept sector
Representative varieties include: MANTA, TIA
In fact, due to limited energy, I haven’t taken the time to learn more about the inscription track!
The third track is the game track:
Representative varieties include: ACE, XAI, MAGIC
MAGIC belongs to the ARB ecosystem, so it can be focused on
The fourth track is the big pie ecosystem
Representative varieties include: STX, ORDI, BADGER
The fifth track is the L2 sector
Representative varieties include: ARB, OP, METIS, MINA, IMX
The sixth track of opportunity, fan series
CHZ，SANTOS，JUV，AND
The seventh key area worth paying attention to is the SOL ecosystem
Representative varieties: PYTH, JTO, JUP
The key investment targets are BTC, ETH, and SOL.
The above is just a part of what I listed randomly. There are so many varieties that need to be studied and learned. The key points should be to understand the modular blockchain and SOL sectors. The key sector to be laid out is still the L2 track, because there are still two big kings who have not yet issued B, there are still many opportunities!
According to the plan made before, we have to wait until Bitcoin falls back to 35,000 or even below before we can intervene heavily. Ethereum has to adjust to 1,900 or even below before we can take a heavy position to buy the corresponding Shanzhai. At present, Bitcoin is still around 43,000 and Ethereum is still around 2,300. At such a high level, we should remain cautious and mainly participate in spot trading. When the leverage is relatively low, we can intervene again! Otherwise, it is easy to put ourselves on the edge of a liquidation. Before February 17, which is the eighth day of the first lunar month, I personally do not expect to participate in heavy positions and leverage, but only participate in spot trading. Strictly implement this strategy!
In fact, in a certain trend, the annoying market conditions account for more than 90%, and the truly profitable market conditions may be only 10%. This is the case for most varieties. Although ARB has risen to a high level now, it had almost no performance from its launch on March 23, 2023 to early December. Therefore, according to the expectation of reaching the peak on January 11, the rally actually took only one month. The lowest on December 11 was around $1, and the highest on January 11 was around 2.4. The adjustment time was much longer than the time of the rally. Taking the launch on March 23 as the node, and adjusting to around December 22 (opening price of 1.15), it took a full 9 months to adjust. The rally actually took less than a month. The lowest on January 23 was 1.54. So, if you calculate it this way, if you can really grasp a good node, it only takes less than a month to make money. But in fact, there are almost no people who can grasp it so accurately. Perhaps only the dealer can do it. After all, we are just followers of the market. It is good enough for retail investors to get some soup. Don’t think about taking advantage of all the market conditions. Otherwise, if you don’t withdraw in time, you will be the one who takes over at a high level!
Therefore, we don’t need to rush to make a layout. The real bottom of the market often gives us enough time. The current Bitcoin is still at such a high level. It depends on when. A sharp drop will definitely cause a bloodbath in the cottage industry. At that time, the corresponding sectors mentioned above, L2, modular blockchain, AI, games, Bitcoin ecology, Hong Kong concept, fan series, SOL ecology, can be focused on. In general, I personally think that the opportunities in 24 years will definitely be much better than those in 23 years. After all, the expectation of interest rate cuts in the United States is about to come. The rise and fall of the market is more determined by liquidity. If there is more money in the market, the corresponding assets will naturally rise. This is determined by the supply and demand relationship! It is also the simplest logic of rising!
2.6 to 2.7 point reference:
BTC: It failed to break through and stabilize at 43300 many times. If there is no huge positive line to pull it up directly, it is difficult to stabilize at the strong pressure area of 43300-43800. Why is it not easy to break through and stabilize at 43800? Because the strong pressure level above 43800 is only 45800, with a space of 2000 points in between. If there is no strong capital entering the market, it is basically impossible to break through. Therefore, it needs to be repeatedly procrastinated here. If it cannot break through, it needs to repeatedly test the support.
BTC falls back to 42350 and 42085, buy 10% in batches, cover 10% at 41850, and take profit at 42850-43000;
ETH: Currently in a golden cross rebound on the 1-day line, it is relatively strong compared to the BTC market, and the rebound target is 2350-2380 (2390). Considering that a pullback of BTC will lead to its decline, it is necessary to take profit near the above points, otherwise the floating profit will be easily lost.
When ETH retraces to 2310-2292, buy 10% more, and add 10% more at 2280 (if you are already short, you can only wait for it to retrace to enter the market).
SOL: This week, part of the funds rotated to ETH, which has been information-driven recently. It has been weak and formed a daily downward channel. The 12-hour adjustment cycle is about to end and is about to reach the 92-90 strong support zone. The bulls need to counterattack strongly.
SOL falls back to 92.35-91.50 and buy 5% at a low price, add 10% at 89.85, and take profit when it rebounds to 94.85.
Finally, there are still many things that are not written down, such as specific opportunities and specific decisions. These things are often not something that can be summarized in one article.
The new year has begun, and we are creating a high-quality circle, mainly explaining various basic industry knowledge of the currency circle, recommendations of market potential coins and altcoins! The rotation of hot sectors, the basic methods of identifying tops and bottoms, how to better grasp this bull market, and a series of other knowledge, you can find me if you are interested.
