张大爷

It is always easy to make a mistake, that is, subjective future expectations dominate current transactions.

For example, based on the shrinkage of the U.S. national debt, I think there will still be a financial crisis in the United States in the future, and the probability of this is very high. Then I should be strongly short on risky assets, including Bitcoin. But now that the Federal Reserve has stopped raising interest rates and there are expectations of raising interest rates, should I believe in the future or the present?

In fact, many people have such troubles. I think that if it is something in the future, the most important thing to wait for is the timing. If you keep waiting, you will find that you have come up short, which is very uncomfortable. Just like this time, it is true that the US economy has problems, and it is also true that the debt is too high. However, the suspension of interest rate increases and the emergence of expectations for interest rate cuts next year prove that it is not the time for the crisis to arrive. So don’t let the long-term outlook affect your current judgment.

This is a multiple-choice question. If it were you, would you continue to choose to wait for the economic crisis to appear, or would you choose to enter the market now and take advantage of the fundamentals of suspending interest rate hikes?

【Leader Weekly】
Two major events happened last week. The first was that the Federal Reserve suspended its interest rate hike in November, and the second was that the non-farm payrolls report was lower than expected. Both things are boosting risk assets and hurting confidence in the U.S. dollar. Therefore, last week’s stock market and currency circles all experienced different gains. As we all know, the bear market starts with expectations of interest rate increases, so does the bull market start with expectations of interest rate cuts?

There is definitely no problem from the underlying logic. After the suspension of interest rate hikes, expectations for interest rate cuts next year began to appear over the weekend. Here we can take a look at the dot plot of the Federal Reserve. Figure 1 is the dot plot given by the Federal Reserve in September. Picture, I analyzed this picture in September. Everyone at the Federal Reserve insists that the interest rate this year will not exceed 5.5%. So this means that there will basically be no interest rate hikes this year. This is all in the past, and the focus is on looking at the future. The dot plot shows that most Fed officials support cutting interest rates, with the largest number of people between 4.75 and 5.25. This means that next year we will see at least a 0.25 interest rate cut. With evidence of interest rate cut expectations, should we aggressively go long? This is hard to say. The current market gives people a foggy feeling. Inflation in the United States is declining, and interest rate hikes are also suspended. This gives us a reason to do long, but history tells us that many crises have occurred in When interest rates are cut. Therefore, we need to be vigilant. In addition to some internal economic reasons in the United States, unstable local conflicts are also hidden dangers. Generally speaking, there is nothing wrong with looking long and doing long in the short term, but we need to have a keen sense of smell and stop in time when risks come.

Finally, let me report my position. I continue to hold long orders in the big pie. I also entered a BNB because it was relatively low and broke through sideways at the bottom. Moreover, Binance’s endorsement is worthy of my trust. If there is a bull market, the currency There was no way Amby was unresponsive (Figure 2). Therefore, I am still more inclined to hold it for a long time. bnb continues to decline. This is the first step up.

I currently don’t have any short-selling illusions about U.S. stocks. Last week I also said that if I want to be short on U.S. stocks again, I will proceed with caution. This caution has prevented me from being scammed many times. What I'm looking forward to more is gold.What I personally look forward to more is a correction, at least to the white line on the way. If it reaches the white line, the entry trading signal may be more obvious, but if it is adjusted sideways, then the only way to pursue it is to break through. , which makes me feel that the risk is very high. (image 3)

Finally, let’s talk about the geo-conflict. Regarding the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, other countries in the Middle East have not come to an end and have been supporting it. This is really related to the fact that Palestine has not achieved certain results. Although there is a common belief such as Islam, Palestine is currently too If it is weak, neighboring countries will also have to weigh whether the final result will be beneficial to them. I think that as long as the Palestinian-Israeli conflict does not expand to the entire Middle East, it will be eased. Recently, I have rarely seen news about Ukraine. The United States has nothing to do with Ukraine anymore. I hope that the problems in the Middle East will not expand and send aircraft carriers there. To put it bluntly, it is protecting Israel and bombing the US aircraft carrier as much as it wants, while no other country dares to do it. Whether the conflict can be expanded, let’s continue to wait and see!

Let’s talk about US stocks this weekend. US stocks are currently falling below the long-term rising channel. It is a signal that I am bearish. I will be short on US stocks when the market opens next week depending on the situation. Why should I always be short on US stocks? If the outbreak of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict continues to develop, it will have a drastic impact on the U.S. stock market. The logic is that if the Palestinian-Israeli conflict continues to intensify, if the Middle East countries participate in supporting the most powerful weapons besides military and weapons, Crude oil, because the same thing happened in the 1970s. The current situation is that Russia has announced that it will cut crude oil production until 2024, so the price of crude oil itself remains high. The current economic situation of the U.S. stock market is most afraid of the soaring crude oil. Rising crude oil prices will lead to rising prices in the United States. After all, crude oil is an industry. Blood, rising prices will cause inflation to continue to rise. We can see the data. Crude oil has been rising in the past two months, and the US cpi and pce data have rebounded. If Middle Eastern countries do not cooperate with the United States in lowering crude oil prices and begin to reduce crude oil production on a large scale, U.S. inflation will continue to soar. Inflation is soaring, and U.S. bond yields will continue to rise. The higher the cost of bond issuance, the harder it is to support the U.S. economy. Needless to say, the performance of U.S. stocks. Of course, the above inference is based on the fact that countries in the Middle East have begun to cut production and strictly control crude oil prices. situation. I think the short-selling trade starts with the breakdown of the long-term rising channel in the United States. Whether it can succeed or not can only be judged by the book.

Well, a lot happened yesterday. The first one is the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Needless to say the details. Watch more news and pay attention to the progress. At present, it seems that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will not end in a short time. The key point is whether it will bring trouble to the United States. It is reported that Israel has asked the United States for 10 billion U.S. dollars in aid. Giving the money means that Ukraine has truly become an abandoned child. Putin woke up laughing in bed. It is said that Putin went to Beijing yesterday to attend the Belt and Road Conference. The Belt and Road Initiative has been developing for many years. The reason for this grand occasion has a lot to do with the international geopolitical situation in the past two years. The Belt and Road Initiative will become a life-saving straw for all developing countries. Although the United States is working on the India-India Corridor, it is of no use. At present, no Western country has spent so much money to build this corridor. To put it bluntly, it is Biden's pie. Then there was the release of US retail sales data last night. This data was hilarious. The previous value was 0.6, the expected value was 0.3, and the announced value was 0.7! The Fed's management of retail prices last month was abysmal, in large part because of soaring crude oil prices. The U.S. dollar did not rise much after the data was released, but U.S. bond yields have indeed risen since the 10-year period. It seems that interest rate hike expectations are about to increase again. U.S. bond yields hit new highs again. After the Palestinian-Israeli conflict broke out, they finally fell a little, and the monthly retail rate fell again. 33 trillion debt, 4.8% interest. Think about how much money the United States has to pay back. Another thing is that the transit fee of the Suez Canal is directly increased by 10%. The natural geographical environment makes the Suez Canal price increase very arbitrarily. No matter how expensive it is, it has to be passed. Anyway, the money is paid by the end users. It is worth mentioning that crude oil is a very important cargo on this route. If transit fees increase, the sales price of crude oil will naturally not be too low. Finally, gold broke through the trend line suppression. I hope to see gold at US$2,500 per ounce. However, the rise in U.S. bond yields has put some pressure on gold's upward trend. However, fierce geopolitical conflicts and expectations of future crises have given gold a boost. Who can do that? I don't know whether to win, I only know that gold has broken through the long-term suppression.

I just want to ask my 8 followers, I said two days ago that breaking through the trend line to go long, have you done it? I really want to know, say #BTC

Last time I said that breaking through the trend line is a good trading opportunity. The market pulled in the middle of the night last night, which caught me off guard. It was a bit late when chasing, and the position was relatively light. We should pay attention to whether we can get the opportunity to add to the position in the future. I don’t know whether it can reach a new high, and I can’t predict it, but there are currently no unhealthy callback signals. It is worth mentioning that there is a certain difference between the volume of Binance’s spot and futures contracts. Yesterday, I talked about high-volume breakthrough entry on Weibo. The spot does not seem to have high volume, but the contract trading pair does. #BTC

[One moving average to understand the long and short boundaries of the pie] #BTC

The first picture is my short-selling strategy analysis after May 9. Expectations accelerated, but things went contrary to expectations, and shocks and declines kept hitting me at capital losses.

In the second picture, you can see the 3-day moving average chart MA60. This moving average is the short lifeline for falling from 69,000 to 15,000. After 15,000 rose and broke through the moving average, the market started to rise, and then it fell back to the moving average. We can see from the chart alone that the moving average 6 has become the lifeline of the rise. The current pullback happens to hit this moving average, so I think that if the market can hold on here and continue to rise, there will be no chance if it falls below. This is a bet on whether the price can fall below. It is recommended that it is best not to make a contract at the moment. For spot prices, the price of the pie is relatively high, and it may be better to adopt a fixed investment strategy. For later tracking, just keep an eye on the moving average.

The market's correction is exactly at 38.2%. Pay attention to the breakthrough of the trend line above, which is a relatively good long trading signal.

It took more than 140 days to reach 15,000 to 31,000, and the current adjustment is only about 60 days, so in terms of time, it is still unknown whether it can reach a new high. At least breaking the trend line can become a short-term bull signal. #BTC