It is always easy to make a mistake, that is, subjective future expectations dominate current transactions.

For example, based on the shrinkage of the U.S. national debt, I think there will still be a financial crisis in the United States in the future, and the probability of this is very high. Then I should be strongly short on risky assets, including Bitcoin. But now that the Federal Reserve has stopped raising interest rates and there are expectations of raising interest rates, should I believe in the future or the present?

In fact, many people have such troubles. I think that if it is something in the future, the most important thing to wait for is the timing. If you keep waiting, you will find that you have come up short, which is very uncomfortable. Just like this time, it is true that the US economy has problems, and it is also true that the debt is too high. However, the suspension of interest rate increases and the emergence of expectations for interest rate cuts next year prove that it is not the time for the crisis to arrive. So don’t let the long-term outlook affect your current judgment.

This is a multiple-choice question. If it were you, would you continue to choose to wait for the economic crisis to appear, or would you choose to enter the market now and take advantage of the fundamentals of suspending interest rate hikes?