我之所以没有天天解盘大饼，不是我懒，懒的话也不会每个工作日更新了。是因为我找不到大饼涨跌的逻辑以及可以参考的标的。说白了就是纯看技术图表，但是技术图标没有低层的基本面逻辑做支撑，我很难做出判断。譬如我在分析黄金，原油，美股这些标的我会把基本面的逻辑给分析清楚，我才会考虑要不要做决定。事实也证明我还没错过。
如果硬要给大饼找一个基本面的逻辑，我尝试了去验证美联储不加息的预期，但是美股确实在一直跌。美元只是在横盘而已。说明市场并没有完全一边倒的认为美联储不会再加息了。所以这个观点也不成立。
The current U.S. bond yields continue to rise, and geopolitical conflicts continue to intensify. Risk assets should not increase. Then the only explanation in the end is that safe-haven assets will rise. But are the big chips really safe? When the Russia-Ukraine war breaks out in 2022, the pie falls from 40,000 to 15,000. Can this be a safe haven asset? If counted as technology stocks in the U.S. stock market, technology giants such as Nvidia and Tesla are also falling sharply. If this is counted as technology stocks, it is too far-fetched.
所以我以为我没找到一个正常的逻辑去解释和预判大饼将要发生什么，只能从技术图表来看，不被狗庄玩弄的方式，就是等待！图中两根黄线作为我的技术判断的标准，在这个区间的时候我不会参与！
If a target rises or falls without any logic, and goes against the basic market logic to create a different market, then I think there is either a major benefit that is not yet clear, or the market is trying to control the market.
When it comes to trading opportunities, I prefer to wait and wait for a breakthrough first. What are you waiting for? Look at the two pictures below!
Although the trend of the market is polarized with that of the US stock market in the short term, in the long term the trend is synchronized, and what we are waiting for is re-synchronization! If the U.S. stock market continues to decline, the big pie will definitely not be able to rise so dramatically! The long-term channel of U.S. stocks has now broken. It is a fact that U.S. stocks are facing high debt, high inflation, and economic uncertainty caused by the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. If the future of the U.S. stock market is not bright, no matter how big the pie is, it will come back!
