【Leader Weekly】

Two major events happened last week. The first was that the Federal Reserve suspended its interest rate hike in November, and the second was that the non-farm payrolls report was lower than expected. Both things are boosting risk assets and hurting confidence in the U.S. dollar. Therefore, last week’s stock market and currency circles all experienced different gains. As we all know, the bear market starts with expectations of interest rate increases, so does the bull market start with expectations of interest rate cuts?

There is definitely no problem from the underlying logic. After the suspension of interest rate hikes, expectations for interest rate cuts next year began to appear over the weekend. Here we can take a look at the dot plot of the Federal Reserve. Figure 1 is the dot plot given by the Federal Reserve in September. Picture, I analyzed this picture in September. Everyone at the Federal Reserve insists that the interest rate this year will not exceed 5.5%. So this means that there will basically be no interest rate hikes this year. This is all in the past, and the focus is on looking at the future. The dot plot shows that most Fed officials support cutting interest rates, with the largest number of people between 4.75 and 5.25. This means that next year we will see at least a 0.25 interest rate cut. With evidence of interest rate cut expectations, should we aggressively go long? This is hard to say. The current market gives people a foggy feeling. Inflation in the United States is declining, and interest rate hikes are also suspended. This gives us a reason to do long, but history tells us that many crises have occurred in When interest rates are cut. Therefore, we need to be vigilant. In addition to some internal economic reasons in the United States, unstable local conflicts are also hidden dangers. Generally speaking, there is nothing wrong with looking long and doing long in the short term, but we need to have a keen sense of smell and stop in time when risks come.

Finally, let me report my position. I continue to hold long orders in the big pie. I also entered a BNB because it was relatively low and broke through sideways at the bottom. Moreover, Binance’s endorsement is worthy of my trust. If there is a bull market, the currency There was no way Amby was unresponsive (Figure 2). Therefore, I am still more inclined to hold it for a long time. bnb continues to decline. This is the first step up.

I currently don’t have any short-selling illusions about U.S. stocks. Last week I also said that if I want to be short on U.S. stocks again, I will proceed with caution. This caution has prevented me from being scammed many times. What I'm looking forward to more is gold.What I personally look forward to more is a correction, at least to the white line on the way. If it reaches the white line, the entry trading signal may be more obvious, but if it is adjusted sideways, then the only way to pursue it is to break through. , which makes me feel that the risk is very high. (image 3)

Finally, let’s talk about the geo-conflict. Regarding the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, other countries in the Middle East have not come to an end and have been supporting it. This is really related to the fact that Palestine has not achieved certain results. Although there is a common belief such as Islam, Palestine is currently too If it is weak, neighboring countries will also have to weigh whether the final result will be beneficial to them. I think that as long as the Palestinian-Israeli conflict does not expand to the entire Middle East, it will be eased. Recently, I have rarely seen news about Ukraine. The United States has nothing to do with Ukraine anymore. I hope that the problems in the Middle East will not expand and send aircraft carriers there. To put it bluntly, it is protecting Israel and bombing the US aircraft carrier as much as it wants, while no other country dares to do it. Whether the conflict can be expanded, let’s continue to wait and see!