Crypto Steeds trading
Трейдинг. Мысли о рынке. Анализ графиков. Адекватен. Реалист. Учусь торговле. Набиваю скилл. Опыт с апреля 2022. Дистанция всех рассудит ©
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Results of the second month of trading (10.06-10.07)
The public deposit on Binance dropped by 3.4% in dollars and increased by 7.0% in rubles over the month. And it decreased by 6.65% in dollars, but grew by 8.73% in rubles based on the results of two months of maintaining a public account on Binance. It is clear that losses and profits are mostly unrealized, that is, the balance is floating and depends on the exchange rate of coins and the exchange rate of the dollar to the ruble at a given time. Since I trade long-term (distance), I’m generally in no hurry to quickly jump out and realize profits/losses.
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Thoughts on the market, 27.08
While Bitcoin is above 23800-24800 and there is no trigger for general panic, perhaps not many are afraid to buy off their grandfather and alta. And although, I personally see some altcoins already at quite attractive prices, so I can slowly begin to cover shorts with a plus (which is what I do) and gradually gain long positions. But, all the same, somehow there is not enough general news stress and care (preferably with a fix) of BTC under 25k.
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FTM
Fantomych. Another asset that can, in my opinion, show strength in the medium term. The coin is near the historically bullish $0.15-$0.18 zone and also has a lot of pent-up liquidity and uncovered gaps above.
Of course, globally, if you open the day, the coin still has room to fall, but I don’t mind trying to trade long on such strong support.
I closed all short positions on it and am already holding one long position for $0.20. Ready to get a little more. The target of $0.30-0.50 is in place.
Fantomych. Another asset that can, in my opinion, show strength in the medium term. The coin is near the historically bullish $0.15-$0.18 zone and also has a lot of pent-up liquidity and uncovered gaps above.
Of course, globally, if you open the day, the coin still has room to fall, but I don’t mind trying to trade long on such strong support.
I closed all short positions on it and am already holding one long position for $0.20. Ready to get a little more. The target of $0.30-0.50 is in place.
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GMT
One of my favorites in the medium term, despite the fact that the asset has been falling for six months without any special pullbacks. If the project does not collapse soon, then I expect a decent long-term rebound this fall, or at least in the winter.
There is a lot of raw liquidity and price gaps, especially in the $0.35-$0.45 range. It is unlikely that it will be possible to fall much below the current flat (without a good rebound). I consider the $0.10-0.15 zone as a possible mid-term bottom and will continue to increase the asset at these values a little more.
Minimum medium-term goals are $0.27-0.31, average goals are $0.35-0.45. The maximum, at the moment, is seen at $0.60-0.65. I already hold longs worth 3% of the deposit.
One of my favorites in the medium term, despite the fact that the asset has been falling for six months without any special pullbacks. If the project does not collapse soon, then I expect a decent long-term rebound this fall, or at least in the winter.
There is a lot of raw liquidity and price gaps, especially in the $0.35-$0.45 range. It is unlikely that it will be possible to fall much below the current flat (without a good rebound). I consider the $0.10-0.15 zone as a possible mid-term bottom and will continue to increase the asset at these values a little more.
Minimum medium-term goals are $0.27-0.31, average goals are $0.35-0.45. The maximum, at the moment, is seen at $0.60-0.65. I already hold longs worth 3% of the deposit.
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TWT
One of the few coins that, in my opinion, did not realize its full bullish potential after the June dump. It seems like it is asking to break through $1, but there is not enough strength yet, although it is holding up well and is not in a hurry to go down, while other coins have already significantly shed on August 17th.
Due to the fact that in June-August I had accumulated a lot of short positions on the market, which en masse began to go into the positive only by mid-August (many of them had already been closed), I took a couple of long positions on TWT for $0.88-0.89 to dilute short poses, well, I still hold them.
But the other day I decided to hedge these longs with one short at $0.87, since the asset does not yet show the necessary bullish strength, and a lot of liquidity has accumulated below $0.82.
If we don’t go above $1 from the current ones, then the wide zone of $0.55-0.75 will be interesting to me personally for recruiting/extending long positions (with a focus on BTC and other altos).
... On the chart, I’m interested in medium-term buy and sell zones, as well as open trades and hedge trades (green dotted line - long, red - short)
One of the few coins that, in my opinion, did not realize its full bullish potential after the June dump. It seems like it is asking to break through $1, but there is not enough strength yet, although it is holding up well and is not in a hurry to go down, while other coins have already significantly shed on August 17th.
Due to the fact that in June-August I had accumulated a lot of short positions on the market, which en masse began to go into the positive only by mid-August (many of them had already been closed), I took a couple of long positions on TWT for $0.88-0.89 to dilute short poses, well, I still hold them.
But the other day I decided to hedge these longs with one short at $0.87, since the asset does not yet show the necessary bullish strength, and a lot of liquidity has accumulated below $0.82.
If we don’t go above $1 from the current ones, then the wide zone of $0.55-0.75 will be interesting to me personally for recruiting/extending long positions (with a focus on BTC and other altos).
... On the chart, I’m interested in medium-term buy and sell zones, as well as open trades and hedge trades (green dotted line - long, red - short)
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BTC/RUB
I was thinking about where to put the rubles from the spot, which I quickly bought back due to the crazy growth of the dollar (Teaser) in July-August... In terms of dollars, my average purchase price is 70 rubles, I started selling Teasers back in April, continued in June and closed the main part in plus already on the dump of the ruble in the last couple of months. The average sales came out to almost 90 rubles per $. As a result, now about 20% of the cache in rubles is collecting dust on the spot.
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ETH
Locally, the cue ball still looks weaker (the cue dated June 14 struck, unlike the old one). For medium-term speculation, in my opinion, it has not yet reached this point. But approximately from the current ones it can go to the region of 1800-1900.
If this happens, I will take 1-2 short positions there, since I am stuck in that zone with a hedge long at 1870. Also, there is one open short at 1740.
In other words, I won’t take it at the current price, I’ll wait another 1300-1500. I'll buy a short pose there. Well, it’s safer to buy at those values in the medium term, and you’ll have a larger upward range.
Locally, the cue ball still looks weaker (the cue dated June 14 struck, unlike the old one). For medium-term speculation, in my opinion, it has not yet reached this point. But approximately from the current ones it can go to the region of 1800-1900.
If this happens, I will take 1-2 short positions there, since I am stuck in that zone with a hedge long at 1870. Also, there is one open short at 1740.
In other words, I won’t take it at the current price, I’ll wait another 1300-1500. I'll buy a short pose there. Well, it’s safer to buy at those values in the medium term, and you’ll have a larger upward range.
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CHZ
They made a fracture on June 10th. Below there is very little liquidity, only new, but not much of it. Therefore, without additional news feed, it will only be possible to drain down through the formation of a new trade, which is what is happening now.
The level of $0.03-0.05 will most likely act as powerful support for the bulls. Therefore, I consider $0.04-0.05 or slightly lower to be an excellent buying zone. For the medium term.
I think there is growth potential to $0.10-0.12 and even higher. I won't buy at the current price just yet. Although the price is already quite good.
Closed the third part of the short in plus. One hedge long and two shorts opened above have not yet been touched. I will put a take on the second short position just below the loy on August 17th.
... On the chart, I’m interested in medium-term buy and sell zones, as well as open trades and hedge trades (green dotted line - long, red - short) ...
They made a fracture on June 10th. Below there is very little liquidity, only new, but not much of it. Therefore, without additional news feed, it will only be possible to drain down through the formation of a new trade, which is what is happening now.
The level of $0.03-0.05 will most likely act as powerful support for the bulls. Therefore, I consider $0.04-0.05 or slightly lower to be an excellent buying zone. For the medium term.
I think there is growth potential to $0.10-0.12 and even higher. I won't buy at the current price just yet. Although the price is already quite good.
Closed the third part of the short in plus. One hedge long and two shorts opened above have not yet been touched. I will put a take on the second short position just below the loy on August 17th.
... On the chart, I’m interested in medium-term buy and sell zones, as well as open trades and hedge trades (green dotted line - long, red - short) ...
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LTC
The price has already removed a lot of liquidity, making a turning point at the end of 22nd year. I consider $40-50 an excellent shopping area for the medium term (not for the whole cutlet, of course). It will probably go below $40, but it is unlikely that this will happen before reaching $70-90.
At the current price, I think that either cover the short position with a plus (who shorted it higher), and hold off on purchases. Or go long just a little bit if you haven’t bought higher yet. But the probability of a hike is lower. The probability of growth in the short term (0-1-2 months), in my opinion, is high. It's all about what price to buy before growth.
I would do this step by step, starting with very small percentages of the deposit. But, since there are two hedge longs and one short above, I won’t buy right now. The second short has already closed in positive territory.
I see the growth potential of the coin up to $70-90. In principle, there are options to walk around $120-130 in order to close short sellers who entered right before the halving. But these are already too optimistic goals.
... On the chart, I’m interested in medium-term buy and sell zones, as well as open trades and hedge trades (green dotted line - long, red - short) ...
The price has already removed a lot of liquidity, making a turning point at the end of 22nd year. I consider $40-50 an excellent shopping area for the medium term (not for the whole cutlet, of course). It will probably go below $40, but it is unlikely that this will happen before reaching $70-90.
At the current price, I think that either cover the short position with a plus (who shorted it higher), and hold off on purchases. Or go long just a little bit if you haven’t bought higher yet. But the probability of a hike is lower. The probability of growth in the short term (0-1-2 months), in my opinion, is high. It's all about what price to buy before growth.
I would do this step by step, starting with very small percentages of the deposit. But, since there are two hedge longs and one short above, I won’t buy right now. The second short has already closed in positive territory.
I see the growth potential of the coin up to $70-90. In principle, there are options to walk around $120-130 in order to close short sellers who entered right before the halving. But these are already too optimistic goals.
... On the chart, I’m interested in medium-term buy and sell zones, as well as open trades and hedge trades (green dotted line - long, red - short) ...
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BTC
I hold 4 short positions on the coin, two at 30k and two at almost 29k. I closed the fifth with a slight plus. I didn’t think that the cue ball would be so famously salted.
I placed two takes at the mercy of short poses. One for 24,500, the second for 24,000. I haven’t thought of covering the rest of the shorties yet.
Longs speculatively for Bitcoin are interesting to me from 23000-24000 or lower down to 20k. Below 20,000 it is unlikely to be lowered easily, without a good rebound upward.
In the medium term, I continue to believe in going to the 33-36k zone. Maybe higher, of course. In the longer term, there are still thoughts that it will go below 15,000.
... On the chart, I’m interested in medium-term buy and sell zones, as well as open trades and hedge trades (green dotted line - long, red - short) ...
I hold 4 short positions on the coin, two at 30k and two at almost 29k. I closed the fifth with a slight plus. I didn’t think that the cue ball would be so famously salted.
I placed two takes at the mercy of short poses. One for 24,500, the second for 24,000. I haven’t thought of covering the rest of the shorties yet.
Longs speculatively for Bitcoin are interesting to me from 23000-24000 or lower down to 20k. Below 20,000 it is unlikely to be lowered easily, without a good rebound upward.
In the medium term, I continue to believe in going to the 33-36k zone. Maybe higher, of course. In the longer term, there are still thoughts that it will go below 15,000.
... On the chart, I’m interested in medium-term buy and sell zones, as well as open trades and hedge trades (green dotted line - long, red - short) ...
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How is BTC doing? Long term forecast
As for the more global scenario. Why am I attached to the fact that my grandfather is more likely to go down to 33-36 thousand than not, and why is it more reasonable to do this without going down to 20,000...
The point is also in price gaps, which are not closed both on the CME futures exchange and on Binance. In addition, the price gave way to hostages (buyers) who had been stuck at 30k since May 2022 (and now, most of them have massively closed their longs and are waiting for 20k to stock up again and fly on a rocket to 40k and above).
The point is also in price gaps, which are not closed both on the CME futures exchange and on Binance. In addition, the price gave way to hostages (buyers) who had been stuck at 30k since May 2022 (and now, most of them have massively closed their longs and are waiting for 20k to stock up again and fly on a rocket to 40k and above).
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How is BTC doing?
I will divide it into two parts, since there is a lot of text and I rarely write. So, finally, the grandfather moved and chose the direction to the south. As a bear, this is especially pleasant for me. As I wrote in the review dated July 20, few would have expected a trip to 24k at that time, and according to the law of meanness, the less expected usually happens in stock trading.
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What do I do if the price goes against me? Part two, final
At the very beginning of June, I published the first part of the article and subsequently completely forgot about it) But in essence, everything that I do after June 20 and which I mentioned more than once in July is a description of what to do if the price went up, and you were short, or down, and you were bullish.
One day I came across an English-language article on Twitter that cited statistics from several brokers that approximately a third of all small traders and about 80-90% of large players in the stock and forex markets do not use stops. I think the statistics are the same in crypto, plus or minus.
One day I came across an English-language article on Twitter that cited statistics from several brokers that approximately a third of all small traders and about 80-90% of large players in the stock and forex markets do not use stops. I think the statistics are the same in crypto, plus or minus.
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How is BTC doing?
As I wrote earlier, after a month of flat, the way out of it will most likely be impressive and it is quite possible to expect both an increase to 36k (the zone of price gaps from last year) and a descent to 24k (a local turning point, going under the May-June sideways trend) and collecting liquidity on the way to and under it). These are like final short-term goals and upon achieving one of them, it is quite possible to significantly rebound in the opposite direction. Perhaps the second option, to me personally, seems more unexpected for most now.
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Hedged a short position on the cue ball with a long position on the cross margin. Stop at 30100 (just below the bullish hammer on the hourly timeframe dated July 2, 1800). If it hits the elk and goes up again, I’ll re-enter
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Now on to the viola...
Of course, I continue to hold short positions, gained approximately 25% of the deposit in June; I closed only 2 shorts on xrp and one on twt for a small plus. Out of harm's way. I didn’t touch negative short positions, I just added liquidity to isolated pairs and waited for further developments.
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How is BTC doing and what's going on with our markets?
Since the last post on June 23, the bit has continued to float, alta has managed to become more popular, and some coins have grown quite well. Grandfather’s uncollected liquidity is above 31.5k and below 29.5k. It is difficult to predict where the price will move first. One thing is clear: after 10+ days of walking sideways, the yield will most likely be at least 10 percent higher.
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Now, according to alts
Using ada, matic and chz as an example. The remaining coins, which I recently shorted on an isolated margin, have almost identical charts.
Proper averaging in stock trading works quite well, it has been personally verified more than once. It turns out that if you took longs in May and gained more after the spill in June, you could already end up with a small loss, and for some coins, even a profit. It depends, of course, on what volumes to enter for the first and second time.
Proper averaging in stock trading works quite well, it has been personally verified more than once. It turns out that if you took longs in May and gained more after the spill in June, you could already end up with a small loss, and for some coins, even a profit. It depends, of course, on what volumes to enter for the first and second time.
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Market situation
Again the market tricked me, just like at the beginning of June, only now with shorts)) Well, okay, where did ours go? This pump caught me in the seas, so I decided not to jump out, but simply double the liquidity on an isolated margin for all pairs, fortunately there is still quite a lot of cash.
Tonight, already at home, I opened the laptop, looked at the charts, basically nothing terrible happened, the prices for my alts went down by an average of eight percent. I took hedging longs on chz, matic, ada and dot. With short feet. If I deem it necessary, I will take a long hedge on other coins on which I opened short positions in June. Now the task is to try not to repeat the beginning of the month, when gmt and algo were strongly not in my direction, and I started building a short hedge late.
Tonight, already at home, I opened the laptop, looked at the charts, basically nothing terrible happened, the prices for my alts went down by an average of eight percent. I took hedging longs on chz, matic, ada and dot. With short feet. If I deem it necessary, I will take a long hedge on other coins on which I opened short positions in June. Now the task is to try not to repeat the beginning of the month, when gmt and algo were strongly not in my direction, and I started building a short hedge late.
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