As for the more global scenario. Why am I attached to the fact that my grandfather is more likely to go down to 33-36 thousand than not, and why is it more reasonable to do this without going down to 20,000...

The point is also in price gaps, which are not closed both on the CME futures exchange and on Binance. In addition, the price gave way to hostages (buyers) who had been stuck at 30k since May 2022 (and now, most of them have massively closed their longs and are waiting for 20k to stock up again and fly on a rocket to 40k and above).

And finally, a breakout of the coveted 32-33 thousand, accompanied by an excellent news background, will attract new buyers and allow those who bought at 16,000-20,000 to finally fix on them and drag them into the negative for a long time.

If you open the long index for the cue ball, you will see that the majority bought not at 30,000, but at 40,000. Therefore, if you go to 40k, the same story will happen. like when hiking 30k. That is, longs will be closed en masse and wait for a drop of 20-30 thousand in order to buy them back. But why give the crowd that made a mistake in April 22 a freebie and another chance?

I think if you go to 40, then you need to buy the whole thing and drag the grandfather to 45-50, without correction to 20-30, so that the fomo turns on. But who from the big seller, who has stocked up for 17k, will buy from the crowd for 40,000? Most likely, there won't be any. Well, even if we see 40-45 thousand against a successful news background, then, most likely, then grandfather will be lowered so deep that many have never dreamed of. Because there are no freebies.

Also, I’ll speak about the figure 20,000. No, no, I’m looking through some public pages, people are wondering there: is this already the bottom in terms of viola? Will we see another 20k in BTC? Will we have time to climb into the rocket at that price and fly almost to the top at halving or a little later? My logic is this - either don’t go for 20 thousand at all, but immediately fly solidly up, or marinate buyers at twenty and then, through small upward rebounds, take it deep and for a long time down. Because the majority cannot earn money, and even for free. They released at 30, got stuck again at 20 and drove to 120. Beauty.

Well, once again let’s pay attention to American Treasuries (one of the highly liquid instruments in the world), which are now trading at the lowest values ​​and with the highest yield over the last 15-20 years. That is, US bonds are nowhere cheaper and with the best interest rates; shares and cue ball are quite expensive and in a prolonged bullish trend. The Fed is slowing down on rate hikes. Therefore, the time is right for big and smart money to dump risky, expensive assets and transfer them to cheap treasuries.