I will divide it into two parts, since there is a lot of text and I rarely write. So, finally, the grandfather moved and chose the direction to the south. As a bear, this is especially pleasant for me. As I wrote in the review dated July 20, few would have expected a trip to 24k at that time, and according to the law of meanness, the less expected usually happens in stock trading.

Yes, we haven’t reached 24k yet, but I still think this scenario is very likely and logical from the point of view of giving confidence to the bears and instilling fear in the bulls. After which, it’s quite reasonable to buy back the whole thing and try again to storm the 32-33k level (and on the third attempt to break through it, though most likely falsely).

Also, on July 31, he suggested that at 30k there are already enough people who have gone long, and when descending into the 26-27k zone they will also be very actively picking up, which is what we are seeing right now. Accordingly, I personally don’t see any reason to immediately charge new passengers 32k or more from the current price.

So what happened on the graph? In fact, for almost 2 months, they were trading in the 29-31k corridor (with minor gaps from it). Therefore, after such a long accumulation, BTC was bound to rise significantly or fall significantly. A descent of 25k is no longer small, but, in my opinion, it is not yet enough to realize the full potential of a two-month consolidation.

In addition, we saw a sharp breakout of two weekly and two daily moving averages from top to bottom, which was quite unexpected for me. I still assumed that if there was a hike to 24k, it would be smoother.

On the way down, we closed all the gaps and collected all the liquidity that formed after June 17th. Below, there are only two unshaved levels nearby: 23900 and 24800.

To summarize, 30-36 thousand are prices from which the cue ball could well go deep down, I have been talking about this since May. And on the chart we now see something similar to a double top (April and July). The fall has begun, but I still think that it is more logical to break through 32-33k and close the gaps of the 22nd year before going to 15-18k.

Also, we have barely touched the zone of speculative purchases (or closing shorts in plus) 23000-25300, which I marked and wrote about on July 31st. But I would like to do more, namely to walk in the 23-24k corridor, accumulating money there, spreading bad news, breaking all the technical analysis into a long position. And only then, from those values, start at 33-36k.

A descent to 20-21k followed by a drop to 33k and above is, in my opinion, illogical and unlikely. If I see those numbers, I’ll be more likely to favor a retest of the 15-17k zone with a possible reversal of the November lows than a growth of 30k straight from 20k.