As I wrote earlier, after a month of flat, the way out of it will most likely be impressive and it is quite possible to expect both an increase to 36k (the zone of price gaps from last year) and a descent to 24k (a local turning point, going under the May-June sideways trend) and collecting liquidity on the way to and under it). These are like final short-term goals and upon achieving one of them, it is quite possible to significantly rebound in the opposite direction. Perhaps the second option, to me personally, seems more unexpected for most now.
So, the grandfather is already trading below the 25-day moving average, another obstacle to growth visible to everyone on the chart is the 100-week moving average at 32k. However, there are also powerful supports below - at 28.5k there is a 100-day MA and at 27k there are two weekly moving averages 25 and 200. By the way, literally from this week onwards the so-called “golden cross” was formed, i.e. The faster 25-week moving average crossed the slower 200 from bottom to top. In ancient books on trading, this is presented as a harbinger of rapid growth, but in our times, as a rule, on the contrary, a dump occurs, even if it is short-term.
And in general, the 32-39k zone is now a powerful resistance for the bulls, as well as 20-25k for the bears. If we simplify everything, then it is quite possible to open a day and try to trade, entering and exiting in parts from these price levels, without reinventing the wheel and not paying attention to the news noise.
By the way, the news background on crypto at the moment is a solid 5; I haven’t seen anything bad in the media over the last few days, at least. The Fear & Greed index is 56 (greed), which means most traders hope for continued growth of the crypto as a whole on the positive from XRP and ETFs.
Short positions on Bitcoin did not decrease after the news about Ripple, although in general over the last month of sideways trading, shorts have noticeably decreased, and the number of longs, on the contrary, has increased.
Looking through some large crypto publics and surveys of their participants, I noticed that basically the crowd was divided in half, those who are pushing for growth from the current price zone about the same as those who are waiting for a correction. Interestingly, the majority have two prevailing ideas - first a growth of 32-36k, and then a correction below 30k, or first a correction of 26-28k, and then a retest of 31k, breaking through and flying to 32k and above.
To summarize all of the above, then against the good news background of the last few weeks, many of those who did not manage to go long in mid-June (or closed early later) are now bullish or are waiting for a correction at 27-28k and will fly there.
Therefore, it is more logical, either without extra passengers to go straight up to 34-36k without correction (a sharp spike of 28-29k is quite acceptable), or to cut for another month or two in the 27-34k zone, throw in even more good news (they say, a trip to 40-45 is inevitable) and then merge by at least 20-22k. Well, or the backup (cunning) scenario described at the very beginning - a methodical merciless descent to 24k and from there again go to retest and break through 32k.