Since the last post on June 23, the bit has continued to float, alta has managed to become more popular, and some coins have grown quite well. Grandfather’s uncollected liquidity is above 31.5k and below 29.5k. It is difficult to predict where the price will move first. One thing is clear: after 10+ days of walking sideways, the yield will most likely be at least 10 percent higher.
More generally, the goals do not change. A hike to at least 34-36k with the closing of the gaps of the 22nd year and a decrease to at least 20k in the area of the March “icicle” (there is also an unclosed price gap there). Since we are currently closer to the first goal, it is perhaps more logical to implement it first.
A fear/greed index of 60 (greed) is more likely for a local decline. But, at the same time, the index of short positions on the cue ball, despite breaking through the April price highs, is at very high values (higher than in March-April). In other words, they are in no hurry to cover short positions (by the way, I am also not covering shorts on BTC yet). This factor is for local growth.
It is worth taking into account the presence of unclosed price gaps at 4h tf, which formed during a sharp increase on June 16-20. I counted 4-5 of them. This is also a plus for the option of correction by at least 27-28.5k - from current prices or after an increase of 34-36k.
According to the news background over the past 5-7 days, there has been rather more negativity, both in US stocks and separately in crypto. Although, in my opinion, everyone has already become accustomed to the growth of American indices, resigned themselves and are tired of being surprised)
Also, a noticeable decrease in short positions on the snp500 index is striking. In May-June they reached their highest levels since 2016, but over the past couple of weeks they have decreased significantly. The shortists are slowly capitulating. Most often this happens before a stock market correction. If it happens, then theoretically, Bitcoin can pick up/work out this trend in advance. But, of course, this is not a matter of one or two days.
Treasuries continue to fall in price, despite attractive yields. Apparently, the final withdrawal of buyers is underway, although manipulation is not typical for the bond market; rather, there is simply a strong seller. In general, with such tasty yields on cheap bonds, sooner or later they will be actively bought as a relatively risk-free asset. At the same time, an exit from riskier and more expensive (at the moment) instruments, such as stocks and bitcoin, will begin. A kind of transfer of money by funds, professional investors and other big players.
Gold fell for the second month in a row, anticipating future growth in Treasuries. By the way, if you open a chart of gold and bitcoin, you will see very similar “pictures”. But gold futures are now at January-February/mid-March levels. BTC then cost 23500-26500. That is, either gold is lagging far behind, or Bitcoin is quite expensive at the moment.
Well, in conclusion about Baku. The dollar continues to “depress” the ruble, but is still relatively inexpensive to the pound/euro/franc (given the high risks of recession in the US over the horizon of 1-2 years). The weekly and monthly candles for the dollar closed very ominously against the ruble, and if this is not a false exit from the historical corridor of 74-79, then a direct path to 93-106 is open.