The BTC daily candlestick shows a bearish engulfing pattern following a spike, with multi-level divergence signals emerging alongside a breakdown trend. Short-term upward momentum may temporarily come to a halt, and the market is likely entering a phase of oscillation and decline.
From the 12H to daily level, although the price is currently holding above the MA30, the local candlestick presents a bearish-dominated 'torrential rain' pattern. If today’s close maintains this structure, the resistance for future spikes will significantly increase.
Current prices are above the MA30 of the 12H and daily candlesticks, theoretically suggesting the possibility of repeated oscillation within the range of 101700~106000. However, this week it is crucial to guard against the risk of a daily candlestick level bearish oscillation; ideal buying points on a larger scale require waiting for prices to break lower, while smaller scale operations can continue using the lifeline strategy.
The 4H level shows that after a rapid spike yesterday evening, a clear divergence structure has formed. The previous oscillation lower bound and moving average system provide some support, but repairing divergence requires time or space (detailed analysis will be in the subsequent video). Overall, caution is needed for the continuation of sideways movements and space-type pullbacks; in practical operations, the latter risk requires more emphasis on prevention.
From the 15-minute to 1H level, besides the divergence at the top, clear breakdown trends have emerged. Even if losses are recovered in the short term, it will be difficult to change the oscillation pattern, and the participation value is relatively low. Attention should be focused on a new wave of decline after a retracement.
Second Support: 96136~94010 (1:2 risk-reward ratio reference range)
Summary: The 4H to daily moving average system still maintains a bullish structure, but the candlestick pattern is relatively weak, and the price has not exited the original oscillation range; The 15-minute to 1H level is in the retracement phase after a top divergence breakdown, with significant resistance above, focusing on preventing a decline after the retracement in operations.
Altcoins will enter a major oscillation phase at the daily level, similar to the market trend in August 2024 — the oscillation period is precisely the window for accumulating chips, and it is expected that a market movement will start at some point in June-July.
The low point on April 15 can be seen as the bottom for most mainstream altcoins (especially the new coins that can be listed on BN); even if there is another oscillation downward, the probability of creating a new low is relatively low.
The next month is a critical period for building positions; if the price approaches the April low, it can be gradually accumulated. The liquidity window brought by the U.S. debt replacement is considered the best opportunity for altcoins in the next year.
Operations require patience and waiting for the right rhythm, similar to the market script during Trump's election last year, and it is necessary to hit the right nodes. The upcoming market movement in June-July may have annual level profit potential, and seizing this opportunity could cover the annual profit target.
Once, people always said that BTC was a unicorn riding a rocket to the moon, rising by hundreds of points in a year, and you could earn just by closing your eyes and buying.
But now, this myth is gradually returning to reality.
Looking back at the annual compound growth rate chart of Bitcoin, 2017 was indeed crazy, with casual market waves resulting in several times or even a dozen times increases. But after 2020, everything changed - in that year, Bitcoin was accepted by the 'regular army': institutions began to allocate, corporate ledgers included BTC, and even some countries adopted it as a reserve asset.
When BTC was institutionalized, it was no longer a toy for speculation in the crypto world, but a new type of safe-haven asset in the eyes of global capital, alongside traditional safe-haven assets like gold and bonds.
Since then, the annual compound growth rate has dropped from over 100% to 30-40%, and it is still gradually slowing down. But this is not a bad thing; rather, it means it is maturing and becoming reliable, starting to have the capacity to accommodate larger capital inflows.
Many people predict that the long-term annualized growth rate of BTC may eventually stabilize around 8%.
Why this number? Because the long-term average global currency expansion is about 5%, economic growth is around 3%, and as an anti-inflation asset, this is the growth rhythm it should have.
We once fantasized about overnight surges and financial freedom, but now, looking back, an asset that can sustainably outperform inflation over the long term, and even maintain double-digit growth each year, is indeed precious.
BTC is such an existence - it is no longer stimulating, but it is worth long-term trust; it no longer doubles every day, yet it still performs better than the vast majority of publicly traded assets.
So, If you have already entered the market, take your time, no need to be anxious; If you are still hesitating, don't expect it to return to the craziness of ten years ago.
Today the Bitcoin trend is very disappointing! It just broke through the platform and was met with heavy selling, resulting in a reversal-style decline, which is very likely a turning point in the trend.
If the trading volume continues to increase after the U.S. stock market opens tonight, and the closing pattern does not improve or even worsens, then the short-term trend may come to an end, and we must be vigilant about the medium to long-term trend turning point!
Although there is support around 100,000, in the face of a trend turning point, this level of support is simply insufficient. The next couple of days' trends are crucial, and we must keep a close eye on the possibility of a trend turning point.
ETH is closely linked with Bitcoin, and there are currently signs of capital outflow; now we are just waiting for Bitcoin to clarify its direction. If Bitcoin can maintain its upward trend or high-level consolidation, ETH still has room for an increase.
The altcoin market is also following Bitcoin. After Bitcoin starts adjusting, capital has fled to safer assets.
In the future, for altcoins to rise, they must rely on Bitcoin to create a favorable market environment, which requires market stability and optimism, but right now the market is filled with panic.
The current Fear and Greed Index is 74, so everyone must operate with caution!
Yesterday, Bitcoin (BTC) was generally consolidating, with increased volatility in the early morning but the trend remained relatively stable. The market is currently greatly influenced by fundamentals, especially the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which needs close attention!
From the intraday trend, if BTC can hold steady at key levels, the upward momentum may follow, and we can consider building positions in batches. In the longer term, a golden cross has formed on the weekly chart, suggesting that a new round of market activity is about to start!
Ethereum (ETH) is moving in sync with BTC and is also consolidating.
However, in the early hours, ETH's pullback was slightly larger than that of BTC.
But there is a divergence signal appearing on the 4-hour K-line! If it can hold steady today, there might be potential for an upward movement, and we can also consider entering in batches.
For altcoins, the trend is quite similar to mainstream coins, and the market trading sentiment is still somewhat sluggish. It is recommended to wait for mainstream coins to stabilize before following up!
Recently, it's worth paying close attention to meme coins, as Binance has been very active lately with consecutive Alpha bonus events. You can take the opportunity to accumulate points in preparation for the next round of activities. Additionally, the SOL chain has been very active recently, and the MEME coins on the chain are also worth focusing on!
Today's highlights for BTC: The technical indicators on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts show that the trend is very healthy, and the daily line has also returned to a good state. It is expected to mainly consolidate today, with support in the range of 102500 - 103000 and resistance in the range of 105000 - 106000.
ETH: The trends on the 1-hour and 4-hour levels are also very stable, and the daily line condition is good. Today, it is highly likely to continue consolidating, with support at 2300 - 2350 and resistance at 2500 - 2600.
BTC Future 60-Day Trend Prediction: Why Bearish? The divergence in market views often stems from differences in understanding the concepts of rise and fall.
Core Cognitive Clarification: Rise and fall are relative concepts; judgments detached from the time dimension are meaningless; Short-term rises and long-term falls are not contradictory, and a downward trend within the year does not imply a continuous decline; Forecasting errors do not mean inability to profit; investment decisions should not rely on a single judgment.
Bearish Logic Deduction: Rise and fall can be both the result of analysis and the starting point for analysis. In the absence of predictable market trends, predicting rises and falls is essentially a matter of probability choice.
Analyzing from BTC's historical trends, it has been about 120 days since the high point of 109588 corrected. Based on a simple time cycle division, this period can be split into two segments of "rise - fall," with each phase theoretically corresponding to 60 days.
Therefore, I judge that BTC will continue its downward trend in the next 60 days, and the downward cycle may begin immediately. I will update the analysis daily to find more technical and fundamental support for this prediction. #美国加征关税 #MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC
Ethereum (ETH) Market Analysis and Strategy Current Price 2394 USD, the four-hour level shows back-and-forth pin-style fluctuations. Such oscillations are prone to misjudgments of a 'new round of decline'; in fact, it is more likely a signal for the main force to clean up high leverage and build a bottom.
Operation Suggestions: Initial Positioning: Lightly enter long positions near the current price of 2390 to prevent missing out;
Supplementing Plan: Add positions when it falls back to 2365 to build average cost;
Risk Control Settings: Stop loss and exit if it falls below 2322;
Target Outlook: Look for above 2500 USD after breaking through the range.
Core Logic: Pin fluctuations are essentially a cleanup of leveraged chips; repeated testing within the current range may be a bottom solidification process. Beware of reverse breakout risks and suggest gradually building positions as planned with strict stop losses.
US Debt Credit Rating Downgraded Across the Board:
The End of the AAA Era: Following Fitch and S&P, Moody's has downgraded the US debt rating to 'AA1', citing the $36 trillion nominal debt and a budget deficit exceeding 6% of GDP.
As the 'global benchmark for safe assets' that has maintained a AAA rating since 1917, the US debt has been collectively downgraded by the three major agencies for the first time, marking a substantial crack in its credit foundation.
Core Contradiction Analysis: Debt Spiral Risk: Under the monetization model of fiscal deficit, the imbalance between debt scale and economic output has surpassed the market's tolerance threshold;
Policy Uncertainty: Frequent unconventional policies have intensified market concerns about the sustainability of US debt, weakening its traditional 'risk-free asset' attribute.
Long-term Impact Projection: The downgrade of US debt ratings may not trigger immediate market turmoil, but its function as the 'global monetary anchor' is subtly changing:
Asset Allocation Restructuring: Central banks, sovereign funds, pension funds, and other long-term investors may reassess the 'default allocation' status of US debt, initiating a risk premium pricing mechanism;
Acceleration of De-dollarization: Regions such as the Middle East and Southeast Asia are accelerating the advancement of local currency settlement systems; the allocation of gold, bitcoin, and non-US dollar assets in national reserves may increase.
Market Misjudgment Warning: Short-term price stability does not indicate that the underlying financial logic has not shifted.
This rating adjustment is essentially a 'paradigm shift in allocation' — from 'unconditional trust in US debt' to 'diversified risk hedging', a trend that may reshape the global asset landscape in the coming years.
The loosening of the US debt credit system is essentially a microcosm of the retreat of globalization during the 'failure of old anchors and the need for new anchors'. When 'risk-free assets' are no longer risk-free, finding new value storage vehicles may become the core proposition of financial strategies for various countries.
Recent market technical analysis indicates that after a rapid price increase, it has entered a correction phase. Although the moving average system remains in a bullish arrangement, the short-term moving averages are flattening or declining, showing a decline in upward momentum.
A high-level stagnation pattern is apparent, and potential reversal patterns such as head and shoulders and descending triangles need to be closely monitored.
Technical Indicator Analysis
K-line patterns: Head and shoulders, descending triangles, and doji patterns are frequently observed, releasing trend reversal or downward signals.
EMA indicator: EMA12 and EMA26 are in a downward trend, with short-term bearish momentum prevailing, and price is pressured near EMA60.
BOLL indicator: The upper band is slowly converging downward, while the lower band is also narrowing, reducing volatility, with prices approaching or breaking through the middle band, showing a fluctuating downward rhythm.
MA indicator: Short-term moving averages (MA5, MA15) and medium-term moving averages (MA30) are converging, intensifying short-term selling pressure, but prices are still above the long-term moving averages (MA60, MA90), suggesting a phase adjustment within an upward trend.
Pattern breakout: The trend line of the triangular consolidation range has been broken, and the pattern is leaning bearish.
Key Levels and Trend Outlook Short-term support: 2425, 2380 (4-hour level support around 2380, with this level's signal currently showing bullish). Resistance level: 2520.
Conclusion: The market is overall in a correction cycle, and it is necessary to be cautious of the downward risk after confirming reversal patterns, with short-term attention on the effectiveness of support levels and breakout situations at resistance levels.
The weekend market once again exhibited typical 'early morning volatility': BTC/ETH experienced intense fluctuations early Monday morning, and those who did not set risk controls faced liquidation, while those following strategies accurately grasped the rhythm — short positions were entered during the second peak, ETH was bought at 2343, achieving over 100 points in profit, marking a seven consecutive wins last week.
Key Points Tracking BTC
Support: 101175 (core), 98500, 97200, 93911 Resistance: 110000 Strategy: Observe the strength of support near 101175 during a pullback; if broken, it will test the 100,000 mark; if stabilized, maintain high-level volatility, and consider going long based on support.
ETH Support: 2343 (verified), 2285, 2215 Resistance: 2851 Note: This morning's sharp drop validated the effectiveness of support, and those who positioned long against the trend have already profited, highlighting the predictive value of key levels. Market experience and today’s strategy have undergone multiple cycles of verification, with risk control being the foundation of survival.
Today's Trading Suggestions: Watch the market during the day, waiting for ultra-short-term confirmation signals for a second bottom; If new lows are created in the evening or a short squeeze occurs, consider positioning long, strictly setting stop-loss (e.g., stop-loss if ETH falls below 2285).
Motto: Keep a stop-loss close, opportunities can be grasped; blindly chasing orders can lead to losses, patiently wait for signals.
The core logic of the main force's washout and reallocation lies in selecting the true 'allies' — their goal is not simply to clean out retail investors, but to guide the chips to circulate orderly among market participants.
The main force does not wish for the 'startled birds' (speculators lacking strategy) to hold stocks for the long term; instead, through methods such as fluctuations, inducing buying, and inducing selling, they promote the continuous turnover of retail chips, avoiding the same group of short-term speculators holding from the bottom to the top.
The essence of 'forcing the handover of chips' is not to make retail investors exclusively deliver them to the main force, but to guide the chips to transfer among the retail investor group through the contest between bulls and bears.
During the main force's accumulation phase, they often obscure their true intentions with obscure patterns; even if retail investors intervene halfway up the mountain, the main force will still use volatility to prompt them to take profits or stop losses, passing the chips to the next participant, repeating this cycle until the market reaches its peak.
It is important to be cautious:
If retail investors collectively dump at the top while the main force has not yet completed their distribution, it will lead to them passively taking over and being trapped — this is precisely the key reason why the main force strictly controls the chip structure.
Finally, it is emphasized: enhancing market awareness is the foundation of survival. Only by understanding the logic of capital operation can one avoid becoming the last runner in the 'chip relay race'.
Today, May 26, the BTC price is reported at 13,600 USD.
In the face of BTC's continuous high volatility and the mixed trends of bulls and bears, many investors are expressing that they "don't understand".
Several friends around me suffered losses during yesterday's fluctuations—when Bitcoin is consolidating at high levels, altcoins often fall into a series of declines. Recently, multiple warnings about risks have been issued: contract trading is only recommended for short-term intraday participation, while spot trading should focus on larger cycles.
Just like the gear principle of a mechanical watch, the second hand, minute hand, and hour hand correspond to different time frames, with the ups and downs of a small cycle ultimately forming the trend of a larger cycle.
For small players, survival in the market is not easy: when capital is limited, high leverage and betting everything may seem like "betting small to win big", but in reality, it is disconnected from the trend—even if the larger cycle trends upward, frequently participating in minute-level and hour-level fluctuations is still prone to losses.
The root of "fast is slow" lies in: small cycles have strong randomness, and a single mistake can wipe out everything; while large capital players, with sufficient margin and position tolerance, can afford small fluctuations after positioning at relatively low levels, ultimately capturing the upward trend completely, illustrating that "slow is fast".
The difficulty of crossing social classes far exceeds the superficial rises and falls of the market. From the day trading perspective, Bitcoin still has short-term support, but the pressure of a pullback after a spike has not dissipated, and one should take profits when they see them.
It is worth noting that current altcoins are weak in following Bitcoin's rise; if Bitcoin retraces, it may trigger a correlated decline. ETH remains in a bullish structure, and the market is not yet over.
In terms of strategy, one can short high-positioned altcoins that have recently risen in contracts but should not hold positions overnight. With market volatility increasing, it is essential to remain cautious.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's attitude towards the current data is quite contradictory.
He stated yesterday that interest rates will not decrease in the short term, with the earliest possible rate cut after September, depending on inflation and employment data. This means that the Federal Reserve's impact on the market in the short term is relatively limited, and the real variable comes from Trump.
Powell has previously admitted that the timing of last year's rate cut was too late, while the current economy shows signs of cooling.
If high interest rates are maintained, it may repeat past mistakes and exacerbate the economic downturn;
But rashly cutting rates also carries risks — Trump's uncertainty regarding tariff policies makes him concerned: without tariff interference, the inflation data that has clearly declined in April may prompt the Federal Reserve to cut rates in May-June; but once tariffs are fully imposed, the price increase of imported goods will push up inflation, potentially leading to a passive situation where inflation rebounds after a rate cut.
Based on this, Powell prefers to wait and see rather than take risks: either cut rates in advance before July to stabilize the economy, or delay until after July to intervene once the crisis is clear. #币安Alpha上新
Secondary Market Spot Trading Strategies ——⬇️ Commonly used strategy in the primary market: "Double your capital, use remaining positions for speculation". The core logic is the net profit coin model, which can be transferred to secondary market operations:
Position Management: Set a position limit for each cryptocurrency (e.g., 100-500U) and diversify across multiple altcoins. Profits from one asset cover losses from others, achieving overall risk hedging.
Coin Selection Logic: Lock in bull market cycles, filter out market noise, and use candlestick charts as the core judgment basis, entering positions on the right side at relatively low points. For example, with 100U: If Coin A triggers a stop loss (e.g., 10%), the remaining capital is 90U; when the entry price is touched again, only use the remaining funds to add to the position without increasing the capital, controlling risk exposure.
Holding Strategy: Sell 50% of the position to recover capital after the asset doubles, turning the remaining chips into a "zero-cost position"—after capital recovery, the mindset improves, maintaining an active position in both ups and downs. Increases gains during rises and reduces profit drawdowns during declines, aiming to maintain survival capability in a volatile market.
Entry and Exit Rules: Use the time axis and price axis as judgment dimensions, with the intersection point serving as the exit signal. In practice, either price or time may trigger first, following the principle of "first come, first executed" to flexibly respond to market changes.
$101,500 support level reclaimed three times, BTC shows strong performance!
In the current scenario, the battle between bulls and bears is intense, requiring precise timing for shorting at the top and going long at the bottom, while the risk of operations in the middle range is relatively high. BTC shows a triangular consolidation pattern on a smaller timeframe, and a direct decline on the four-hour cycle is quite challenging, so a strategy of selling high and buying low is recommended in the short term.
Considering that FTX will launch the second round of bankruptcy distribution on May 30, it is inclined to believe that the market may first fake a breakout upward before falling back — it requires first creating a higher high to form a second bearish divergence signal on the four-hour level.
Specific operational suggestions: Long position: ambush range $101,800-$100,000;
Recent market characteristics and technical analysis trend overview: Although prices are generally fluctuating upward, they have recently entered a consolidation phase, and market volatility has significantly decreased.
Short-term technical signals Bollinger Bands (BOLL): Prices are oscillating near the middle band, with the upper and lower bands narrowing, indicating sideways consolidation. There remains a possibility of slow upward movement below the middle band support.
EMA indicators: EMA12 is close to the price line and maintains an upward trend, with short-term bullish sentiment still present, but momentum is weakening; EMA60 is steadily rising, and the long-term trend remains bullish.
Moving Averages (MA): MA5 has broken above MA10 forming a golden cross, but the slope of the moving averages is flattening, reflecting a decrease in upward momentum.
Key patterns and points candlestick characteristics: The doji pattern frequently appears, with both top and bottom formations coexisting, intensifying the bullish-bearish divergence, and the trend may face a halt.
Consolidation range: The upper resistance level is 105000, and the lower support level is 102000, showing a pattern of oscillation without a clear direction. 4-hour level: The bullish structure remains intact, with key support forming around 102000 USD, and caution is needed for potential breakdown risks.
Conclusion: The short-term market has entered a consolidation period of "watching more and acting less"; the 4-hour support level determines the short-term direction, and a cautious approach with oscillation strategies is advisable before breaking through the range.
The Logic Behind the Divergence in ETH and BTC Trends:
Under the primary wave structure, the bearish expectations of ETH and BTC show essential differences:
From the perspective of the primary wave structure, ETH is overall in a downtrend, and the current rebound is a consolidation in the downtrend center, while BTC is nearing a double top formation.
Key Logic: ETH faces strong resistance in the range of $2700-$3000 (corresponding to the Fibonacci 50%-61.8% resistance level); this range may become a turning point for the market, triggering a deep pullback.
Strategy Differences: BTC primarily adopts a high-short-low-long oscillation strategy, while ETH tends to be bearish — it is more prudent to wait for verification of the Fibonacci resistance levels above the daily level before placing short orders.
ETH Market Analysis: Weak Rebound Indicates Adjustment Demand, Altcoins Liquidate and Wait for New Cycle. The ETH rebound trend is relatively weak; one must rationally view its doubling from the bottom, having reached the previously anticipated high point range and aligning with the time node. Yesterday (15th) initiated the first wave of slight decline, and the daily closing shows that a waterfall-style crash is unlikely in the short term.
Intraday Resistance: The 2600-2650 USD range has been reached; Support Level: In the short term, first look at 2450 USD, with key intraday support at 2420-2380 USD. If it breaks below, it may test the 2200-2300 USD range.
Altcoin Strategy: Currently, all previous positions have been cleared. Under the market rotation characteristics, the advantages of old coins are difficult to sustain. It is recommended to wait for this round of adjustments to be in place before positioning based on new market trends.
BTC Market Analysis: Strong Rebound After Hitting Bottom at Dawn, Key Resistance Level Determines Bullish or Bearish Direction. BTC Quickly Rebounded After Reaching $102,500 at Dawn, Indicating Strong Short-Term Bullish Momentum, with the Day's Trend Remaining Strong. Key Focus Now is the $105,000 Resistance Level - If It Cannot Be Effectively Broken, There May Be Another Downward Movement from Afternoon to Evening.
Short-Term Support: Watch the $101,500-$102,200 Range on a Smaller Scale; Key Daily Support: The $100,000 Level is the Watershed for Bullish and Bearish Trends. A Break Below This Level Will Disrupt the Consolidation Pattern, Potentially Opening Up Further Downward Space to the $96,000-$98,000 Range.
When will the waterfall decline of BTC and ETH start?
In-depth analysis of market depth, technical characteristics, and market rhythm. BTC's daily line yesterday closed with a small bearish candle with a long lower shadow, without a large bearish candle body. After a slight pullback today, it quickly rebounded, showing strong buying support.
Although the cumulative increase from the bottom has reached $30,000, the current high-level consolidation is a normal technical demand.
From the perspective of volume, BTC's selling pressure has not been significantly released, but market trading activity has declined; ETH has doubled in its rise from the bottom, closing with a small bearish candle with a shadow yesterday, and the previous day's high followed by a retracement shows an intensifying tug-of-war between bulls and bears, indicating a short-term directional choice window.
The underlying logic of the tug-of-war between bulls and bears: The common patterns at the bottom and top: the accumulation at the bottom requires a long grinding process, and only after repeatedly shaking out floating positions will the main upward wave begin;
Similarly, the top region needs to build enough bullish signals to attract chasing funds to enter and form a trapped position, allowing the main force to complete the selling action.
Current market state: Although BTC and ETH are at relatively high positions, there are no large-scale capital withdrawal signs yet.
The main force is more inclined to consume bullish momentum through a strategy of 'high-level oscillation + spike to induce buying', rather than directly triggering a sharp decline.
Key signals and operational suggestions. Necessary conditions for the waterfall to start: must simultaneously meet multiple signals such as 'large volume breaking through key support levels', 'market sentiment extremely exuberant', and 'large outflow of main funds'.
Taking BTC as an example, if the daily level breaks below the psychological level of $100,000 and the volume surges, it may trigger panic selling;
ETH needs to break below the neckline at $2,400 to confirm a trend reversal.
Retail investors' coping strategies: Overcome the contradictory psychology of 'fear of heights' and 'eager to exit at the top', using key support levels as the boundary between bulls and bears - before breaking, consider it a normal adjustment, and execute stop-loss strategies after breaking.
Avoid frequent operations during the oscillation period, and patiently wait for the market to provide a clear direction.
Conclusion: In the short term, BTC and ETH will still mainly oscillate at high levels, and waterfall declines need to wait for the main force to complete the induced buying and position exchange.
Investors can refer to the 'large volume break + extreme sentiment' dual indicators to judge the turning point. Before that, maintaining a 'light position and wait + high sell low buy' strategy is more prudent.