Latest data shows that institutional investors in the United States (including exchanges, banks, and funds) have significantly increased their holdings of Bitcoin in the short term.
Looking back at historical performance, the tendency of such institutions to increase Bitcoin holdings often coincides highly with periods of rising prices.
The current growth trend in holding ratios may indicate that the Bitcoin market is building strong upward momentum, with a high probability of initiating a new bull market in the foreseeable future.
BTC Market Technical Analysis: Currently, the Bitcoin price frequently oscillates in the range of 94,000 - 95,000. The K-line exhibits dense small bearish and bullish patterns, reflecting that the market's long and short forces are in a stalemate.
From a technical indicator perspective: MACD: The DIF and DEA dual lines continue to operate below the zero axis, and the histogram consistently maintains negative values, indicating that the bearish forces still dominate;
RSI: The indicator value hovers around 48, neither reaching the overbought threshold nor falling into the oversold zone, showing that the market direction is currently unclear;
EMA: The price fluctuates narrowly between EMA7 (94,607) and EMA30 (94,698), and EMA7 crosses below EMA30, forming a death cross, highlighting the significant suppression effect of the short-term moving average;
BOLL: The 6-hour Bollinger Bands continue to contract, indicating that the oscillating market will persist.
Although the 4-hour level trend releases bullish signals, a slight pullback may accompany it in the short term.
From a medium to long-term perspective, the bullish trend remains clear. It is recommended to accumulate long positions on dips. The key support level is 93,600, and the resistance level to watch is 95,300.
The Bitcoin daily chart has been oscillating within the range of a box for 7 days. Currently, it is important to closely monitor whether the price can achieve a breakout or breakdown of the box.
The key resistance level above focuses on around 95,500, while the support level below is around 92,000. It is expected that the market will soon break the box pattern.
The trading strategy is as follows: for short-term trading, when the price approaches 95,000, consider placing a short position; if it touches around 92,000, then attempt to go long.
Be sure to set strict take-profit and stop-loss orders to control risk.
For dollar-cost averaging, when the price falls back to around 92,500, you can start the first investment. Subsequently, execute orders based on the established dollar-cost averaging strategy and operational details. #币安Alpha上新
Ordinary investors rely on price increases to make profits, while experienced investors can also profit through short selling. However, some exchanges and market manipulators ("dog dealers") focus on constantly introducing new trading products to attract investors. They only seek to maintain market scale without regard for the actual quality of the products.
The common contradiction in the past was between the continuously growing investment demand and the relatively lagging market development level, but now it has shifted to the contradiction between a highly active market with frequent new products and the limited actual funds and demand of investors.
"Dog dealers" continuously extract funds, and when investors hold on to their price expectations, they find that liquidity is diverted due to the constant launch of new trading products.
Ethereum daily chart analysis shows that the recent price has been fluctuating within the narrow range of 1700-1900 USD, with volatility continuing for a week.
The K-line has tested the MA60 moving average resistance multiple times, while the MACD indicator shows signs of breaking above the zero line.
If the MACD successfully stays above the zero line, Ethereum is expected to start a strong trend, making an attempt to hit the key resistance level of 2000 USD.
In terms of operations, it is recommended to pay attention to short-term pullback opportunities. If the price falls back to around 1700 USD, consider buying the dips in spot trading to seize the entry opportunity. #币安Alpha上新
In career planning, it is crucial to prioritize fields that can provide immediate and effective feedback, facilitating rapid skill iteration.
Taking a case from around, one student worked as a game planner and after graduating, spent over 4 years deeply engaged in a project at Changyou. After the project was launched, it was quickly removed due to poor testing results.
Although the student later moved through several leading gaming companies, they always found it difficult to fully experience the entire process from planning design, production, to launch operations, failing to obtain key practical feedback, which led to a bottleneck in skill enhancement. In contrast, quickly launching mobile game projects and optimizing adjustments based on real-time data can better promote career growth.
While knowledge accumulation and theoretical learning are important, the real feedback from the real world is the core driving force for skill progression.
Just like NBA professional coaches, who provide immediate guidance by closely observing players' training and performance in games, driving team improvement;
Cryptocurrency trading also has similar advantages, as the market is ever-changing and can quickly provide feedback on the correctness of trading decisions, with new gameplay emerging constantly.
For practitioners who are good at reflection and persistent deliberate practice, leveraging this high-frequency feedback mechanism can allow them to leap from a beginner level to the top tier in emerging gameplay within a year.
Conversely, if one is only indulged in strategy-less speculative games, even spending a lot of time, it is difficult to achieve substantial breakthroughs in skills.
1. Short-term Risk Warning: As of today at 7:15 AM, the 4-hour K-line of Bitcoin shows a significant downward trend with increased volume, presenting a typical "M" head double top pattern at a high position, with the price rapidly retreating after a spike. It is advisable to closely monitor the resistance level indicated in the chart to avoid the risk of chasing highs; if it touches the support level, consider positioning for long trades or entering the spot market.
2. Multi-Cycle Trend Assessment: From the 2-hour to daily level, the Gu Bi trend indicator is forming a bullish resonance, establishing a bullish tone for the medium to long term; however, the smaller cycles within 1 hour show bearish resonance, suggesting that short-term trading should focus on shorting at highs. Last week's weekly K-line formed a lotus flower emerging from the water pattern, further confirming the potential for upward movement in the future; even if a pullback occurs, it may also present a good entry opportunity.
3. Indicator Signal Interpretation: The 4-6 hour MACD indicator shows an oil leak pattern in the air, releasing a price pullback signal. Short-term operations can seize opportunities to short at highs. When the 30-minute price rebounds to critical resistance levels like the EMA60 moving average and the double top neck line, it marks an ideal shorting point (strict stop-loss settings must be enforced during operations). Spot investors can place light orders at important support levels.
Risk Warning: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and the above analysis is for reference only. Investors can leverage the correlation effect of Bitcoin to simultaneously monitor trading opportunities in mainstream coins, sub-mainstream coins, and some quality altcoins.
BTC Medium-Term Trend Analysis: New High Resistance is Heavy, Upward Space May Stop at the $100,000 Mark
1) Core Variables of Trend and Space - Volume Signals Show Fatigue. From the daily trading volume performance, the current market trading enthusiasm continues to shrink, releasing a warning signal of insufficient momentum.
2) From the perspective of Elliott Wave Theory, BTC may be playing out a daily level three-wave structure. Combining Fibonacci retracement calculations, if the trend continues, the target is likely to reach the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, corresponding to the $100,000 integer mark. Against the backdrop of continuously declining volume, breaking through historical highs becomes significantly more difficult.
3) In a conservative expectation, if the price encounters resistance and falls back at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (approximately $96,000), this round of rebound may end prematurely.
Will the market face significant liquidations soon?
Data shows that historically, significant liquidations of Bitcoin occur on average every 13 days, with individual liquidation sizes typically ranging between 800 million to 2 billion dollars.
The most recent significant liquidation happened on April 7, and as of April 30, the market has been calm for 23 days. With such a long period of low volatility, is the risk of significant liquidations accumulating?
Investors need to pay close attention.
The market is constantly changing, but the human instincts of greed and the tendency to chase trends and panic sell always remain, and the tactics used by manipulators to harvest retail investors have never changed.
In the face of potential risks, staying vigilant is the best strategy.
Examining the Bitcoin liquidation heat map, the current contract market shows a clear accumulation of long and short positions. Regardless of price fluctuations, a large number of contracts will be triggered for liquidation.
This phenomenon indicates that the market is still dominated by contract trading, and the underlying logic behind price fluctuations lies in the plundering of contract liquidity.
If the price rises, a large number of significant and oversized short liquidations will emerge in the $95,450 - $98,750 range; if the price drops, many significant and oversized long positions will face forced liquidation in the $93,600 - $90,300 area.
4.30 Bitcoin Trend Analysis Starts Today, the market curse of "falling whenever there is a meeting" is likely difficult to break, and Bitcoin is expected to face a wave of downward correction, which is precisely a good opportunity to enter the market. Investors should not miss it.
From the hourly trend perspective, the morning presents a volatile downward trend, and the afternoon market shifts to a volatile upward trend. However, during the late hours of the U.S. stock market, specifically in the early hours, Bitcoin's price experienced a rapid decline. Currently, the volatility at the hourly level has significantly increased, which usually indicates that the volatility at the daily level is also about to intensify.
Further from a technical analysis perspective, the trends at the 1-hour and 2-hour levels have difficulty supporting Bitcoin's current oscillation pattern at a high level, and at this stage, it mainly relies on the momentum of the 4-hour level to maintain.
From the perspective of the health of the trend, the price needs to pull back to the support levels of the 4-hour or 8-hour level before moving upwards, which is more robust. The expected pullback position is in the range of $92750 - $90300.
At the daily level, there are two key strong support levels. The first is the MA120 line, corresponding to a price of $91680; the second is the daily MA30 line, currently at $86470.
However, the MA30 line is quite far from the current price, and the possibility of a significant drop in price to that position in the short term is low. Subsequently, the MA30 line will continue to rise, gradually approaching the current price.
It is worth noting that the upward trend at the weekly level has already been established. Based on this, every pullback is an excellent opportunity to enter the market.
In terms of resistance and support levels, the daily resistance levels are $96188, $99700, and $102044;
The support levels are $91680, $88950, $86120, and $82880. Investors can plan their trading operations reasonably based on these key points combined with their risk tolerance and investment strategies.
Recently, the market has gradually recovered from the impact of tariffs, U.S. stocks have regained upward momentum, and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices are only 1-2% away from their previous highs. At the beginning of this week, they may test key resistance levels.
Bitcoin's surge is strong, but a rebound driven solely by market sentiment may be nearing its end. Future trends urgently require substantial positive support, such as U.S. economic data exceeding expectations, new developments in the crypto industry, or the voting results of the Bitcoin bill in Arizona on Tuesday local time—if the bill passes, it will inject strong momentum into the market.
Currently, investors are shifting their focus to economic fundamentals, with particular attention to the authenticity of data.
The founder of MicroStrategy has launched a Bitcoin tracking tool, indicating a new round of accumulation plans;
On-chain data shows that a certain whale recently purchased 30,000 ETH and 600 BTC, with a total value exceeding $110 million, sparking heated discussions in the market.
In the future, GDP and PCE data will become key variables for market trends.
If GDP growth exceeds 0.4%, U.S. stocks and Bitcoin may continue to rise;
Conversely, data that falls short of expectations will trigger market adjustments.
PCE data is also critical; if inflation is controllable, market confidence will be boosted; if inflation pressure intensifies, investors may become more conservative. Editor's share
Based on the analysis of weekly technical patterns, Bitcoin is very likely to challenge the $100,000 mark before May 15, while Ethereum is also expected to climb to the $2000-2200 range during the same period.
Compared to the current price levels, altcoins may have an upside potential of 30%-50%.
Recently, the gaming sector has already strengthened, and the market is expected to see a broad rally. It is recommended that investors appropriately reduce their positions at phase peaks to secure profits, and then wait for a pullback opportunity to reallocate.
Seizing this trend opportunity may yield considerable returns within the year, and it is advisable to remain patient and continue monitoring.
As of April 2025, global government Bitcoin holdings have decreased to 463,741 coins, accounting for approximately 2.3% of the total supply, down from 529,591 coins in July 2024.
In terms of holding distribution, the United States ranks first with 198,012 coins, strengthening reserve management through the "Digital Fort Knox" strategy;
China holds 194,000 coins, stemming from the seizure in the 2019 PlusToken case.
The United Kingdom has seized 61,000 coins due to criminal investigations, while Bhutan holds 8,594 coins thanks to sustainable hydropower mining. El Salvador continues to purchase 1 coin daily, now holding 6,135 coins;
Ukraine has received 256 coins in donations for military and civilian aid since 2024. Notably, Germany has emptied its 46,359 coin holdings by mid-2024.
The Divergence Dilemma in the Crypto Market: Bitcoin Soars, Why Do Altcoins Remain Stagnant?
Bitcoin's sharp rise from $20,000 to $100,000 is astonishing, contrasting sharply with the near-stagnation of the altcoin market.
Every time Bitcoin hits a new high, investors' expectations for a rebound in altcoins are dashed once again, revealing hidden concerns behind this split movement.
Market skepticism persists: Is it that altcoin valuations have already priced in future gains, resulting in a lack of upward potential? Or are early-stage venture capital firms (VCs) cashing out after projects list on top exchanges, taking advantage of high market caps?
Recently, new cryptocurrencies often have a circulating market cap starting at $300 million, seemingly confirming the latter speculation.
The current market ecology has changed: the past script of wealth creation through undervalued explosions is difficult to continue, replaced by a chronic consolidation under high valuations.
While Bitcoin continues to hit new highs, altcoins resemble a bubble that has expanded to its limit without bursting.
Without the injection of new retail funds, how long can this valuation game be sustained?
Has the bull market for altcoins yet to arrive, or has it already completely passed? #加密市场反弹 #AI概念币领跑
The Bitcoin market is witnessing a grand performance of 'whale accumulation': data shows that whale funds continue to flow into Bitcoin, with the capital inflow to accumulation addresses reaching a historical peak.
Currently, whale holdings have hit a historical record, but retail participation has fallen to a historical low.
This means that the market is not yet fully prepared; once whales complete their positioning, it may trigger a new round of the Bitcoin bull market. #加密市场反弹 #Strategy增持比特币
Yesterday, after a brief divergence in the trends of Bitcoin and Ethereum, they resumed synchronized movement in the evening.
From the daily chart of Bitcoin, the moving averages are arranged in a manner resembling an alligator's mouth, further reinforcing the bullish trend, and the possibility of an upward breakout continues to increase.
The pullback last night halted after hitting $93,500, with a prolonged high-level consolidation digesting the pressure, achieving a 'horizontal movement instead of a decline'.
The current 4-hour trend is validating yesterday's analysis expectations, but it should be noted that yesterday's deductions were aimed at scenarios where the breakout failed to stabilize effectively.
Based on the current trend judgment, the upward wave pattern on the 4-hour level has not yet ended.
Ethereum's movement closely follows Bitcoin; once Bitcoin rises, Ethereum is likely to follow suit. In addition, established mainstream altcoins are also showing signs of rebound, which is worth close attention.
The green range corresponds to the high and low points of March, forming the current oscillation box.
After the price broke through the upper edge of the box (range-H), it is currently oscillating around the 95,000 USD level. Key Judgment: If the daily line cannot stabilize at 95,000 USD, a pullback is expected;
If it stabilizes at this level, it is highly likely to continue the upward trend, even challenging the 100,000 USD level.
After stabilizing at 95,000 USD, 100,000 USD may become the next target;
If it fails to hold, attention should be paid to the bullish order block at the daily level (D1 bullish ob) support.
On the hourly level, there is a liquidity area formed by the previous high (pwh) and the high point (mh) above, while below is the low point (ml) and the bullish order block at the 4-hour level (H4 bullish ob) forming the support range.
The ideal trend is: first consume the upper liquidity and then initiate a bearish trend; if it reaches the ml area below and effectively tests the H4 bullish ob support, one can consider positioning for a long order.
Bitcoin has been rising recently, experiencing sideways fluctuations in a key resistance zone. The current price trend indicates that Bitcoin seems to be gathering strength for stability, preparing for a surge at the end of the month.
It is worth noting that the market has been lacking significant news to stimulate movement, and BTC price fluctuations have been relatively limited, with only a few AI concept altcoins maintaining a slight upward trend.
From a technical analysis perspective, it is expected that Bitcoin may undergo a phase adjustment in early to mid-May, correcting technical indicators through price retracement. As the adjustment period approaches, the market may experience more key event-driven changes in trends, which investors should closely monitor.