When will the waterfall decline of BTC and ETH start?
In-depth analysis of market depth, technical characteristics, and market rhythm. BTC's daily line yesterday closed with a small bearish candle with a long lower shadow, without a large bearish candle body. After a slight pullback today, it quickly rebounded, showing strong buying support.
Although the cumulative increase from the bottom has reached $30,000, the current high-level consolidation is a normal technical demand.
From the perspective of volume, BTC's selling pressure has not been significantly released, but market trading activity has declined; ETH has doubled in its rise from the bottom, closing with a small bearish candle with a shadow yesterday, and the previous day's high followed by a retracement shows an intensifying tug-of-war between bulls and bears, indicating a short-term directional choice window.
The underlying logic of the tug-of-war between bulls and bears: The common patterns at the bottom and top: the accumulation at the bottom requires a long grinding process, and only after repeatedly shaking out floating positions will the main upward wave begin;
Similarly, the top region needs to build enough bullish signals to attract chasing funds to enter and form a trapped position, allowing the main force to complete the selling action.
Current market state: Although BTC and ETH are at relatively high positions, there are no large-scale capital withdrawal signs yet.
The main force is more inclined to consume bullish momentum through a strategy of 'high-level oscillation + spike to induce buying', rather than directly triggering a sharp decline.
Key signals and operational suggestions. Necessary conditions for the waterfall to start: must simultaneously meet multiple signals such as 'large volume breaking through key support levels', 'market sentiment extremely exuberant', and 'large outflow of main funds'.
Taking BTC as an example, if the daily level breaks below the psychological level of $100,000 and the volume surges, it may trigger panic selling;
ETH needs to break below the neckline at $2,400 to confirm a trend reversal.
Retail investors' coping strategies: Overcome the contradictory psychology of 'fear of heights' and 'eager to exit at the top', using key support levels as the boundary between bulls and bears - before breaking, consider it a normal adjustment, and execute stop-loss strategies after breaking.
Avoid frequent operations during the oscillation period, and patiently wait for the market to provide a clear direction.
Conclusion: In the short term, BTC and ETH will still mainly oscillate at high levels, and waterfall declines need to wait for the main force to complete the induced buying and position exchange.
Investors can refer to the 'large volume break + extreme sentiment' dual indicators to judge the turning point. Before that, maintaining a 'light position and wait + high sell low buy' strategy is more prudent.
