BTC Future 60-Day Trend Prediction: Why Bearish?
The divergence in market views often stems from differences in understanding the concepts of rise and fall.
Core Cognitive Clarification:
Rise and fall are relative concepts; judgments detached from the time dimension are meaningless;
Short-term rises and long-term falls are not contradictory, and a downward trend within the year does not imply a continuous decline;
Forecasting errors do not mean inability to profit; investment decisions should not rely on a single judgment.
Bearish Logic Deduction:
Rise and fall can be both the result of analysis and the starting point for analysis. In the absence of predictable market trends, predicting rises and falls is essentially a matter of probability choice.
Analyzing from BTC's historical trends, it has been about 120 days since the high point of 109588 corrected. Based on a simple time cycle division, this period can be split into two segments of "rise - fall," with each phase theoretically corresponding to 60 days.
Therefore, I judge that BTC will continue its downward trend in the next 60 days, and the downward cycle may begin immediately. I will update the analysis daily to find more technical and fundamental support for this prediction.
