US Debt Credit Rating Downgraded Across the Board:
The End of the AAA Era: Following Fitch and S&P, Moody's has downgraded the US debt rating to 'AA1', citing the $36 trillion nominal debt and a budget deficit exceeding 6% of GDP.
As the 'global benchmark for safe assets' that has maintained a AAA rating since 1917, the US debt has been collectively downgraded by the three major agencies for the first time, marking a substantial crack in its credit foundation.
Core Contradiction Analysis:
Debt Spiral Risk: Under the monetization model of fiscal deficit, the imbalance between debt scale and economic output has surpassed the market's tolerance threshold;
Policy Uncertainty: Frequent unconventional policies have intensified market concerns about the sustainability of US debt, weakening its traditional 'risk-free asset' attribute.
Long-term Impact Projection:
The downgrade of US debt ratings may not trigger immediate market turmoil, but its function as the 'global monetary anchor' is subtly changing:
Asset Allocation Restructuring: Central banks, sovereign funds, pension funds, and other long-term investors may reassess the 'default allocation' status of US debt, initiating a risk premium pricing mechanism;
Acceleration of De-dollarization: Regions such as the Middle East and Southeast Asia are accelerating the advancement of local currency settlement systems; the allocation of gold, bitcoin, and non-US dollar assets in national reserves may increase.
Market Misjudgment Warning:
Short-term price stability does not indicate that the underlying financial logic has not shifted.
This rating adjustment is essentially a 'paradigm shift in allocation' — from 'unconditional trust in US debt' to 'diversified risk hedging', a trend that may reshape the global asset landscape in the coming years.
The loosening of the US debt credit system is essentially a microcosm of the retreat of globalization during the 'failure of old anchors and the need for new anchors'. When 'risk-free assets' are no longer risk-free, finding new value storage vehicles may become the core proposition of financial strategies for various countries.