三人行研习社

Today I will continue my brief analysis of BTC, but take a brief look at each level. After this brief analysis, I feel that my thinking has become much clearer. If you have different opinions, please feel free to discuss them together.

1. Weekly level: The weekly level broke through the downward channel and once broke through the previous high. Is it a real breakthrough or a false breakthrough? Whether it is going sideways or continuing after correction, we need to observe it.

2. Daily level: same week level, breaking through the channel. But it is obvious that the upward attack is weak.

3. 12-hour level: from big to small, and from small to big. You can observe the 12-hour level to support the judgment of the daily level.

Today is the Dragon Boat Festival. Once again, I wish my friends and partners a healthy Dragon Boat Festival. The rice dumplings are far away and the rice dumplings are success.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that although the Fed paused raising interest rates once this month, it still has a "long way to go" in fighting inflation, reiterating the need to raise interest rates. Nothing unexpected. Hawkish rhetoric.

Today I will continue my brief analysis of BTC, but take a brief look at each level. After this brief analysis, I feel that my thinking has become much clearer. If you have different opinions, please feel free to discuss them together.

Big news this week:

This week’s big news: interest rate hike! Does the Fed still dare? Wait with bated breath! The Federal Reserve’s key interest rate decision is coming; major financial reports from Tencent, Meituan, Pinduoduo, etc. are about to be released. The People's Bank of China will announce the 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates (LPR) on Monday;

The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision is coming, and the second interest rate meeting this year will be held on the 22nd. The importance of this interest rate meeting will be far higher than any previous one. The attitude of the Federal Reserve determines whether the financial crisis will end or develop in depth. Although the current inflation rate in the United States has slowed to 6%, it is still far from the 2% target. Beyond that, the biggest unknown is whether the Fed will consider taking steps to protect investors if the banking crisis worsens in the coming weeks. I still maintain my previous judgment of 25 basis points. The Federal Reserve does not dare to be like before, but it still wants to continue raising interest rates to the end. The probability of suspending interest rate hikes and small interest rate hikes adds up to 100%. If it unexpectedly announces a suspension of interest rate increases, US stocks will usher in a strong rise. In addition: central banks of many countries will also announce interest rate decisions, and the central banks of the United Kingdom, Switzerland and Norway may raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve and Swiss National Bank have just announced that six major central banks have joined forces! Enhance liquidity provision through liquidity swaps. This undoubtedly increases the possibility of further interest rate hikes.

Recently, because I have fallen into a period of cognitive confusion, I have not updated the article. When I came up today, I saw a friend leaving a message saying: You admire Buffett and recognize his investment philosophy, but Buffett is not optimistic about the encryption industry. Why should you invest in cryptocurrencies? As a new thing in the crypto industry, I feel I should remain tolerant and open-minded. In addition, cryptocurrency has high volatility and can be regarded as a component of asset allocation. I have written an article before about large-scale investment. Let me share it now:

Major financial events of the week

There are three focuses this week. The first is the U.S. CPI data for February, which is the last key data before the March FOMC meeting. Core inflation is expected to increase by 5.5% year-on-year, a slight decline from the previous month, but prices are still high. The second is the ECB meeting, which is expected to raise the policy interest rate by 50 points and maintain a hawkish attitude. However, the possibility of raising interest rates to 25% due to the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank cannot be ruled out. Today's rescue by the Federal Reserve has reduced expectations of a 50 basis point interest rate hike. The third is for the National People's Congress to review and approve the main members of the new government.

Cai MA said:

Today I’m thinking about how to invest in myself and the future, and live a fulfilling life. In this regard, we really need to learn from Buffett and Munger. I personally admire these two old men very much because they explain the true meaning of investment. Updating the public account every day and trying to make money through trading in a field with large market fluctuations are really a test of human nature. If you are affected by the short-term market, it will be really tiring and difficult to make money. Today's sharp plunge in A-shares illustrates this point. The market teaches you how to behave every second. Investment does not require overly complex tools or strategies. Investors should choose companies and industries that are easy to understand and evaluate, and make long-term investment plans. Buffett recommends that investors should not over-trade, but should choose good stocks and hold them firmly to obtain better returns.

Today is Valentine's Day. Here, I wish all of my friends who follow me: Happy Valentine's Day! Lovers will eventually get married. Today is also Tuesday, the day the Federal Reserve releases CPI. Williams, the "third in command" of the Federal Reserve and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, pointed out that commodity prices have fallen and housing costs have slowed, but wage growth is still well above the Fed's 2% target and there is still a long way to go. For tonight's CPI data, the market expects a high probability of between 6.0% and 6.3%, which should not be too ugly. Analysts believe that US statistics have adjusted the circle of CPI influencing factors and lowered the weight of oil and second-hand cars that have continued to rise recently. , while the weights of renting a house and new cars are increased. Tonight's US stocks and tomorrow's Hong Kong stocks should choose a direction, and at the same time the RMB exchange rate should also choose a direction. Regarding the response of the Hong Kong and US stock markets, especially the US stock market, the following is organized. Cryptocurrencies may once again decouple from U.S. stocks due to the impact of the suspension of BUSD and expectations of increased regulation. But cryptocurrencies as risk assets should be affected by CPI data.

Major financial events this week:

A number of important data will be released this week, among which the annual rate of U.S. unseasonally adjusted CPI and the monthly rate of seasonally adjusted CPI released on Tuesday night are particularly important and require attention. You should pay attention to the changes in API and EIA crude oil inventories for the week, the number of initial jobless claims for the week, and the monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities in China. In addition, Fed officials will speak almost every day this week, and you should pay attention to relevant attitudes and subsequent interest rate hike policies.

Regarding the response to CPI data, January's data will be released tomorrow. Economists expect that the overall CPI will increase by 0.4% month-on-month and 6.2% over the same period last year. Pay attention to CPI because it will affect the Fed's next move. Regardless of the outcome, it is destined to bring big fluctuations to U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies. Traders only need to take precautions beforehand and respond according to the data afterwards.

1. Overall performance of the market:

On Wednesday, many senior officials of the Federal Reserve made hawkish calls: the "third in command" said the peak of 5.1% was reasonable, and the governor said that interest rates may be higher and more durable; expectations for a rate hike in May increased to 70%. Traders began betting heavily on the Fed raising interest rates to 6%. Some analysts believe that it is unlikely that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates this year. It is very likely that it will increase interest rates once or twice and maintain high interest rates for a period of time before making a decision based on economic data. This is also in line with what President Bao emphasized in previous speeches. "Respect data". Both U.S. stocks and currency circles will pay attention to next Tuesday’s CPI data.

I just used Binance Plaza and I think it’s great! Strive to update 5 times a week and share your own trading learning notes and opinions. Everyone is welcome to follow, like and forward.

The question I have been thinking about recently is: What does it mean to sell at the peak of your life? Since the birth of ChatGPT, the number of users has exceeded 100 million in just two months, making it popular on the entire network again. Global technology giants such as Microsoft, Google, and Meta are accelerating their deployment, triggering hot discussions among domestic capital markets and practitioners. The artificial intelligence sector has gained the most in A-shares, and US stock-related sectors have also risen sharply. Major U.S. technology companies have joined the industry pursuit, and OpenAI is stepping up its commercialization. Chinese companies do not look down on being left behind and have joined in one after another to participate in the business model. No matter what the actual situation is: as long as relevant announcements are made, the stocks will rise sharply.

It was not sent successfully yesterday, so I will send it again today.

Summary of major financial events this week

A number of important economic data will be released this week. Among them, China's CPI, China's social finance, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States, and the one-year U.S. inflation rate expectation are all worthy of investors' attention. In addition, Federal Reserve officials have made frequent appearances this week. Chairman Powell will speak on Wednesday, and FOMC permanent voting member Williams, 2023 FOMC voting member Kashkari, and 2024 FOMC voting committee will all speak. Pay attention to the speeches of Federal Reserve officials, which to a certain extent reflect the Federal Reserve’s attitude towards subsequent interest rate increases.

Yesterday it was not approved and not successfully issued. Post again today.

Summary of this week’s major financial events:

A number of important economic data will be released this week. Among them, China's CPI, China's social finance, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States, and the one-year U.S. inflation rate expectation are all worthy of investors' attention. In addition, Federal Reserve officials have made frequent appearances this week. Chairman Powell will speak on Wednesday, and FOMC permanent voting member Williams, 2023 FOMC voting member Kashkari, and 2024 FOMC voting committee will all speak. Pay attention to the speeches of Federal Reserve officials, which to a certain extent reflect the Federal Reserve’s attitude towards subsequent interest rate increases.

1. Overall performance of the market:

Last night, as expected, interest rates were raised by 25%. President Bao continued to be hawkish and mentioned "disinflation" in his speech, and was more optimistic about the fall of inflation. However, the overall rate was dovish, which was really a hawk but a dove! After the meeting, U.S. stocks surged, U.S. bond yields fell, and expectations for an interest rate cut increased slightly. The currency market fluctuated before 3 o'clock, and then began to rise after 3:30. The trend of the currency market and US stocks was basically the same. The market currently expects to raise interest rates by 25 bp in March, with a high probability of stopping the rate increase thereafter, and to start cutting interest rates as early as September. The probability of a 50 bp interest rate cut before the end of the year is 100%. In view of the imminent recession, we still need to be alert to the risk of another adjustment in U.S. stocks in the next three months, but we can be optimistic about the performance of U.S. stocks in the second half of the year. As for whether BTC will follow the pace of US stocks at that time? Just don’t know. However, as BTC is a risky asset with a small market capitalization and high volatility compared to US stocks, there is no reason not to follow the currency cycle. We will also pay attention to the U.S. non-farm payroll data tonight.