1. Overall performance of the market:
On Wednesday, several senior officials of the Federal Reserve sounded hawkish: the third-in-command said the 5.1% peak was reasonable, and a director said the interest rate might be higher and more sustained; the expectation of a rate hike in May rose to 70%. Traders began to bet heavily on the Fed to raise interest rates to 6%. Some analysts believe that the Fed is unlikely to continue raising interest rates this year, and it is very likely that the Fed will raise interest rates once or twice and then maintain high interest rates for a period of time to observe economic data before making a decision, which is also in line with the "respect for data" emphasized by President Bao in his previous speeches. Both the US stock market and the cryptocurrency circle should pay attention to the CPI data next Tuesday.
BTC maintains the previous judgment that 2023 has reached a critical time point. Although BTC has reached the dense chip area of the last rebound in the short term, it is at a relatively bottom position overall. Long-termists only need to invest on dips as planned. The liquidation map shows that the short liquidation area is around 23,500, and the long liquidation is in the two intervals of 22,800 and 21,500 respectively; overall, the large Brown interval is 21,500 to 23,500.
ETH: This round of rebound has also entered a period of pressure. Its trend depends on BTC's mood.
2. Track Analysis:
There is a saying in the currency circle about the rotation of sectors: public chain > defi > application (such as GAMEFI) > meme coins, etc. Another thing is to speculate on new rather than old. This week's hot tracks are: Dragon One: Decentralization is the soul of the industry and the only way for the development of the industry. Corresponding varieties: DYDX, GMX, UNI, CAKE. Wallet echelon: SFP, C98, TWT, etc. Dragon Two: LTC and DASH, which are concepts of production reduction, are worth seeking opportunities for long-term intervention. This wave of rebound has basically taken place from public chains to meme coins. The increase in altcoins has basically exceeded 100%, so I think the risks are greater than the benefits, especially for small-cap coins, and you should pay attention to protecting your principal. Artificial intelligence is still a hot spot in the market, but it is not in my top three leaders. I guess I won't put it in later.
3. Short-term trading opportunities
Short-term trading depends on your own level and energy. If you don't have it, you can just seize the big cycle opportunities, especially the opportunities of mainstream coins. The altcoins in the currency circle make a lot of money, but there are also many people who are trapped. Short-term trading opportunities are suitable for short-term players. I pay more attention to long-term opportunities. Short-term trading funds are small and the frequency is also low. Short-term trading opportunities should be selected from the leading track. Find the corresponding varieties and draw lines at the 1-hour and 4-hour levels to find buying and selling points. (BNX was noticed the day before yesterday, but there was no prompt or participation, and the cognition was still not in place.)
