Today is Valentine's Day. Here, I wish all my friends who follow me: Happy Valentine's Day! Lovers finally get married. Today is also Tuesday, the day when the Federal Reserve announces CPI. The Fed's "third in command" and New York Fed President Williams pointed out that commodity prices have fallen and housing costs have slowed down, but wage growth is still far higher than the Fed's 2% target, and there is still a long way to go. For tonight's CPI data, the market expects a high probability of between 6.0% and 6.3%, which should not be too ugly. Analysts believe that the US statistics have adjusted the circle of CPI influencing factors, lowering the weights of oil and used cars that have continued to rise recently, while the weights of renting and new cars have been raised. Tonight's US stocks and tomorrow's Hong Kong stocks should choose a direction, and the RMB exchange rate should also choose a direction. Regarding the response of the Hong Kong and US stock markets, especially the US stock market, the following is sorted out. Cryptocurrency may be decoupled from the US stock market again due to the impact of its BUSD suspension event and the expectation of increased supervision. However, as a risky asset, cryptocurrency should be affected by CPI data.

  • The probability of CPI growth exceeding 6.5% in January is 5%. If this happens, high inflation may return, and US stocks will face further declines, so it is appropriate to reduce positions.

  • The probability of CPI growth in January being between 6.4% and 6.5% is 25%. If so, the US stock market will fluctuate slightly. Pay attention to whether there will be another interest rate hike.

  • The probability of CPI growth in January being between 6.0% and 6.3% is 65%. If this growth is achieved, the US stock market will fluctuate. The US stock market may be led by technology stocks, which will perform better than cyclical stocks; pay attention to technology stocks.

  • The probability that the CPI year-on-year growth in January will be lower than 6.0% is 5%. If this growth occurs, the positive news will be better than expected and the US stock market will perform well.

Back to the topic:

1. Overall performance of the market:

BTC maintains the previous judgment that 2023 has reached a critical time point. Although BTC has reached the dense chip area of ​​the last rebound in the short term, it is at a relatively bottom position overall. Long-termists only need to invest on dips as planned. Regarding the BUSD incident in the currency circle, I personally think that the madman’s views are very good, and I will directly share the madman’s views.

2. Track Analysis:

There is a saying about sector rotation in the currency circle: public chain > defi > application (such as GAMEFI) > meme coin, etc. Another thing is to speculate on new rather than old. This week's hot tracks are: Dragon One: Decentralization is the soul of the industry and the only way for the industry to develop. Corresponding varieties: DYDX, GMX, UNI, CAKE. Wallet echelon: SFP, C98, TWT, etc. The BUSD suspension event and the recent increase in supervision further reflect the importance of decentralized stablecoins. This leading sector needs to pay more attention to decentralized stablecoin-related varieties: FTM, FXS, ADA, CRV, AAVE, SNX. Dragon Two: The infrastructure sector (new public chain) and new currency concepts that have been adjusted in place this time. Such as: OP, APT, etc., but we have to wait until the adjustment is in place, and it is impossible to rush. Dragon Three: LTC, DASH, the concept of production reduction.

3. Short-term trading opportunities

Short-term trading depends on your own level and energy. If you don't have it, just grasp the big cycle opportunities, especially the opportunities of mainstream coins. The currency circle altcoins make a lot of money, but there are also many people who are trapped. Short-term trading opportunities are suitable for short-term players. I pay more attention to long-term opportunities. Short-term trading funds are small and the frequency is also low. Short-term trading opportunities should be selected from the leading track. Find the corresponding varieties, draw lines at the 1-hour and 4-hour levels to find buying and selling points (especially pay attention to the new varieties of decentralized stablecoins in the decentralized section)

Conclusion: Daily review is only for organizing one's own investment ideas. Views are also formed based on one's own cognition. The corresponding currencies are only for reference and do not constitute advice. DYOR.