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Summary of this week's major financial events

Several important economic data will be released this week, among which China's CPI, China's social financing, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States, and the expected one-year inflation rate in the United States are all worthy of investors' attention. In addition, Federal Reserve officials have frequently appeared this week. Chairman Powell will deliver a speech on Wednesday, and FOMC permanent voting member Williams, 2023 FOMC voting member Kashkari, and 2024 FOMC voting members will all speak. Pay attention to the speeches of Federal Reserve officials, which to a certain extent reflect the Fed's attitude towards subsequent interest rate hikes.

1. Overall performance of the market:

Last week was a heavy data week. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25% as expected. President Bao's speech was hawkish but dovish. A-shares, US stocks, Hong Kong stocks and digital currencies all had a good start after the Lunar New Year. Then, Friday's non-farm data greatly exceeded expectations: the seasonally adjusted non-farm population increased by 517,000, the expected 185,000, and the previous value was 223,000, the largest increase since July 2022. The unemployment rate was 3.4%, lower than the expected value of 3.6% and the previous value of 3.5. After the data was released, the US stock market fell and then fluctuated. The non-farm data alleviated concerns about economic recession to a certain extent, and at the same time provided certain conditions for the Federal Reserve to continue to raise interest rates. This round of rise in US stocks was due to the expectation of a slowdown in the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, which shook this expectation. Later, President Bao made many speeches, and everyone shifted their focus to the change in President Bao's attitude. Because this affects the market's expectations for the March interest rate hike. Digital currencies are traded 24 hours a day. BTC is still weak over the weekend, and the altcoins that rose more before also have a certain correction. Whether the correction will continue this week needs further observation. I still maintain my previous view that digital currencies represented by BTC are risky assets with small market capitalization and high volatility compared to US stocks. There is no reason not to follow the currency cycle,

From a technical perspective, BTC has reached the area of ​​concentrated chips in the last rebound. Will it eliminate the pressure through a correction or a sideways trend? The long headache point is around 22950, ​​and the short headache point is around 25900. The recent large-scale Brownian oscillation zone is roughly in the range of 22950-25900. The probability of a correction this week is relatively high.

2. Track Analysis:

There is a saying in the currency circle about the rotation of sectors: public chain > defi > application (such as GAMEFI) > meme coins, etc. Another thing is to speculate on new rather than old. This week's focus is on the leaders: Dragon One: Decentralization is the soul of the industry and the only way for the development of the industry. Corresponding varieties: DYDX, GMX, UNI, CAKE. Wallet echelon: SFP, C98, TWT, etc. Dragon Two: LTC, 1DASH, BCH, which are concepts of production reduction, are worth seeking opportunities for long-term intervention. This wave of rebound has basically taken place from public chains to Meme coins. There is still a certain degree of popularity for new projects.

3. Short-term trading opportunities

Short-term trading depends on your own level and energy. If you don't have it, just grasp the big cycle opportunities, especially the opportunities of mainstream coins. The currency circle altcoins make a lot of money, but there are also many traps. Short-term trading opportunities are suitable for short-term players. I pay more attention to long-term opportunities. Short-term trading funds are small and the frequency is also low. Short-term trading opportunities should be selected from the leading track. Find the corresponding varieties and draw lines at the 1-hour and 4-hour levels to find buying and selling points