璇玑趋势

ETH currently feels like a beast bound to a barrel of explosives—prolonged sideways movement has made retail investors anxious, with such small fluctuations that even high-frequency trading quantitative robots seem to be in 'sleep mode'! However, seasoned veterans who have been through the ups and downs in the crypto space know well: the calmer the market, the more hidden crises often lurk beneath!
There are 28 hours and 44 minutes left (which is 2 AM Thursday, remember this time point!), the Federal Reserve's 'interest rate cut sword' is about to swing down. Will this knife 'unbind and salvage' ETH, or will it leave it 'in tatters'? The key support level at 4400 will either be a 'wealth lowland' tonight or a 'bottomless abyss'!

The old-timers in the crypto circle are well aware that every time the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, the market hits the mute button and falls into silence, and then... often a storm brews.
Today's market is so boring it could make one's eyelids fight each other. Bitcoin is just sitting there, motionless, and Ethereum seems to be asleep as well. The mainstream coins are collectively 'playing dead', with such small fluctuations that even short-term traders can't muster the interest to operate. Don't mention you; even I almost dozed off in this calm. But don't panic, this is definitely not a sign that the market is hopeless. On the contrary, this is the calmest night before the storm.

The market is like a tug-of-war, with both bulls and bears pulling back and forth at the key level of 114500, while the whistle about to be blown by the Federal Reserve may determine the next directional choice.
Bitcoin is currently in the calm before the storm. As of September 16, Beijing time, the Bitcoin price is fluctuating around the range of 115,000-116,000 USD, showing a relatively balanced force between bulls and bears from a technical perspective.
Market trading volume has significantly shrunk, like investors holding their breath waiting for the results of the Federal Reserve meeting, afraid to place orders easily. Although the daily level still shows a bullish arrangement, the 2-hour candlestick has continuously closed bearish, and the MACD momentum is weakening, indicating a clearly weak short-term trend.

The market is like a tug of war, with both bulls and bears fighting fiercely at key positions— and Xuánjī is now clearly telling you: Today, I believe the bears have the upper hand for now! Don't be fooled by the warm winds blowing in the news, as the technical 'internal injuries' have not healed yet, and Ethereum is likely to crouch down first before jumping higher. Suspense? Don't rush, let's first see whether it will perform a good show of 'false breakout and real dive' at the key position of 4545!

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Retail investors are now like a group of startled birds— scared to death by NVIDIA's shocking news yesterday, and this morning they were further hit by the overall drop of Ethereum reserve concept stocks. Today, even if they see good news like 'whales increasing positions' and 'institutions adding holdings', they still feel anxious and wonder: 'Is this a trap to lure me in?' Under such emotions, the market is more likely to follow the script of 'good news leading to bad outcomes'. From the funding perspective, although whales holding $145000000 seems fierce, most of it is spread across multiple currencies (BTC/ETH/SOL/SUI), offering limited individual support for ETH; while Bitmine's increase in holdings may be a long-term bullish signal, in the short term, it could be interpreted as a smokescreen for 'pumping and dumping'.

PUMP这波走势就像一场盛宴，音乐震耳欲聋，人人都在狂欢。但聪明人已经发现：有人正悄悄从后门溜走，还顺手调高了空调温度——让你觉得热，其实人已经越来越少。
pump.fun昨日再砸305.6万美元回购，累计回购额逼近1亿美元，流通量减少6.67%。听起来很厉害？但这顿大餐，散户能不能吃上口热的，还得打上个问号。

情绪博弈：狂欢下的暗流
市场表面繁荣，深层数据却透露不安。全网PUMP24小时爆仓额高达888.92万美元，多空激烈博弈。
平台收入确实亮眼——协议日收入338万美元，再超Hyperliquid。但巨鲸却以5倍杠杆做空6400万美元的PUMP，目前浮亏超4400万美元。这种规模的对赌，表明大户间也存在巨大分歧。

操作逻辑：为何我看空？
回购故事吸引人，但链上数据发现隐患：早期投资1000万美元购入25亿枚PUMP的大户，开始获利了结，向交易所转入2.5亿枚PUMP，套现500多万美元。
技术面关键点位：

 
支撑位：0.007881、0.007700压力位：0.008775、0.009000分水岭：0.008000
实战策略：两种投资者的选择
稳健者
等待回调至0.0077-0.0079支撑区间分批建仓，跌破0.00710立即止损。单笔风险控制在1%-2%总资金内。
激进者
现价0.00836附近小仓试水，突破0.008775加仓。阶梯止盈：0.008500止盈30%，0.009000止盈50%，剩余20%看0.009500。
生存法则：拒绝高杠杆——PUMP波动剧烈，24小时涨幅曾达26%。紧盯比特币走势——大波动会带动PUMP联动。牢记“利好出尽是利空”——回购消息或已消化，短期可能见顶。
趋势真相：回购背后的效率问题
pump.fun的回购创造通缩，但资金使用效率低。此前1950万美元回购的PUMP，数天后市值缩水至820万美元——高位回购反而浪费平台收入。平台业务依赖Memecoin热度，这种热度往往难以持续。一旦市场冷却，收入下降，回购力度减弱，代币价格将失去支撑。
链上数据显示，大量PUMP正被转入OKX等交易所，暗示内部人士或早期投资者可能正在抛售套现。音乐停止是迟早的事，别做最后找椅子的人。PUMP的回购故事动听，但资本游戏本质不变——有人赚就有人亏。
当前0.00836的价格，犹如悬崖边的舞蹈，美却危险。守住0.007881支撑，破位即走；若突破0.008775，短期可跟，但记住：永远不要最后一个离开派对。
我是璇玑，关注璇玑，洞察币圈更多机会与风险！#美联储降息预期升温

The whales are not opening their mouths to feed you, but to let you jump into the pot! Today's SOL is like a carefully choreographed surfing performance - the giant whale's $145 million long position seems grand, but in reality, there are undercurrents. My view on Xuanji is clear: the short-term temptation risk is greater than the opportunity, and I remain bearish today!
Market sentiment: Retail investors' 'herd anxiety' and 'fear of missing out'

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The current market is trapped in a typical 'whale dependency syndrome' - retail investors are eager to hitch a ride on the giant whales, while fearing becoming the bag holders. News shows that investors are cautiously watching, which reveals the fragility of market consensus.

The sharpest scythe in the cryptocurrency circle is often not the sudden crash, but when you think a rebound is imminent, the dealer quietly removes the support beneath your feet!
Xuanji first states the conclusion: Don't expect a V-shaped rebound today!
ETH is currently quoted at $4520, but don't be fooled by the slight rebound in the early session - it's like the last wave of a drowning person's arm, not a signal for survival, but rather a final struggle. Last night, U.S. stocks of ETH concept stocks collectively plunged, indicating that large funds are retreating: "The risk hasn't fully released yet, I'll take a step back first!"

Don't know when to enter and exit the market? Welcome to follow Xuanji, who analyzes the market in real-time for fans in the village every day.

The ETH market trend today is a classic "whale script": first, a false breakout at 4660 creates a signal for chasing the rise, then it quickly crashes through the psychological barrier of 4500, currently oscillating repeatedly around 4530. Essentially, this is a manipulation using technical patterns to entice and then squeeze out—large funds deliberately create false breakouts to induce retail investors to chase the highs, then reverse and dump to complete the harvesting.
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2 AM on Thursday. The market has significant divergence regarding the policy signals released by Powell. In such a time of high uncertainty, rational investors tend to remain on the sidelines, waiting for clearer direction in monetary policy before making strategic moves.

Hey, this market situation is just like a pack of hungry wolves eyeing a meat bone—Bitcoin hasn't budged yet, and altcoins are already howling to pounce! If you ask me, the market right now is like a powder keg ready to explode, just waiting for a fuse to ignite the whole place!
What is this fuse exactly? The secret is hidden in the flow of funds—recently, a large amount of retail funds is shifting from Bitcoin to altcoins, just like a tide receding to suddenly reveal a bunch of shiny shells. Data shows that among the top 100 cryptocurrencies, 70 have outperformed Bitcoin. What does this indicate? It indicates that the market's greedy sentiment is quietly shifting towards 'high odds games'!

The deep V rebound that ETH staged around the 4,500 point this afternoon is not a signal of long exhaustion, but rather a typical action of the major players washing the market. The consistent operating thought of the operators is as follows: to quickly clear floating longs through rapid declines and reduce the burden of price increases, with the goal of moving upward more lightly in the future.
Since last night, the number of liquidations in the cryptocurrency market has exceeded 120,000, and the short-selling attack has made many long investors feel a chill down their spine.
However, just as market sentiment plunged into panic, prices quickly rebounded to above $4,500—this is no coincidence, but rather resembles a well-planned 'wash trading' scheme. The intention of the major players is very clear: to create panic through a sharp drop, inducing retail investors to stop-loss and cut losses, while washing out indecisive long positions to pave the way for subsequent rises.

Dear coin friends, 我是璇玑, a veteran in the crypto circle. Watching the XPL candlestick chart is like watching a horror movie — the price dances the tango against a black background, with the Bollinger Bands and moving averages acting like the dance partners' leashes, but the big funds behind the scenes have already started betting on the shorts. My view is very direct: XPL is standing on the edge of a cliff, and a slight breeze could either plunge it into the abyss or launch it into the sky. Tonight, will it be a short party or a bull counterattack? The suspense is here — will this $5 million USDC three times leverage short position become the last straw that breaks the camel's back?

I am Xuanji, I have been in the cryptocurrency industry for many years, and I will say one straightforward thing: the market is like an ant nest before a storm—calm on the surface, but already in chaos underneath! Tonight, the Senate vote on the nomination of Milan to the Federal Reserve Board is that cloud hanging over our heads. Once he takes office, this Tuesday's Federal Reserve meeting may have an additional 'hawkish piece', but what if he doesn't make it in time? Hey, the market has to keep guessing! The outcome of this 'Washington Fast and Furious' may directly determine whether Bitcoin rises to $130,000 or crashes back to $100,000!

Brothers, BNB's plunge is like a hiker climbing a mountain in high temperatures, suddenly kicked off the cliff by BTC—right now at the position of 918 dollars, what’s underfoot is no longer steps, but a pile of retail investors' corpses! But don’t worry, I, Xuanji, dare to say: this downhill path may not be the end, but rather the last clearing before the main forces lay their explosives…
Market sentiment: There are secrets behind the panic

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After BNB broke the key support at 920, the market was instantly shrouded in the sentiment of 'it's over'. But look—

When the project party actively 'dig into their own pockets' to initiate repurchase and burn, it not only serves as a powerful expression of confidence in the market but also represents a long-term value 'sunshine strategy'!
Recently, the cryptocurrency market has welcomed a significant development - WLFI has proposed a plan with a clear core content: in the future, all revenue obtained by the official will be used for repurchasing WLFI tokens and executing a burn!

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Specifically, the WLFI team will use the fee income generated from their self-owned liquidity pools on Ethereum, BSC, and Solana chains to repurchase WLFI on the open market, and then burn these tokens by sending them to a destruction address, continuously reducing the total circulating supply in the market.

The trend of Dogecoin once again confirms the old saying: opportunities often arise between hesitation and panic. Right now, this round of correction might very well be the last low ticket the market gives us.
Do you remember Xuanji's reminder over the weekend? The market is moving completely in the anticipated direction: Dogecoin successfully surged above $0.3 and then retreated normally, currently oscillating around $0.275 and gaining strength.

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Do not misinterpret this kind of correction—it is not a risk, but an opportunity. Once missed, we may never see Dogecoin below $0.3 again after this week.

Brothers, the cryptocurrency circle is like a battlefield, with long and short positions fighting like two fierce beasts tearing at each other on the critical peak of 116000 - I, Xuánjī, directly express my opinion: BTC is now walking on a tightrope, it can soar upwards or plummet downwards, and today's 1-hour candlestick is the whistle that decides its fate!
The suspense is revealed: Huge funds flow in but encounter the 'trap mountain'!

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The news is like ice and fire: In the past year and a half, on-chain funds have poured 625 billion, more fierce than the total of the past 15 years, indicating that large funds have already secretly laid out! But there is a 'chip graveyard' above - 500,000 BTC are firmly defended in the cost zone of 117300-119100, this batch of old investors who bought in July are holding back for a break-even sale, which is equivalent to burying landmines for the rise!