The market is like a tug of war, with both bulls and bears fighting fiercely at key positions— and Xuánjī is now clearly telling you: Today, I believe the bears have the upper hand for now! Don't be fooled by the warm winds blowing in the news, as the technical 'internal injuries' have not healed yet, and Ethereum is likely to crouch down first before jumping higher. Suspense? Don't rush, let's first see whether it will perform a good show of 'false breakout and real dive' at the key position of 4545!
Retail investors are now like a group of startled birds— scared to death by NVIDIA's shocking news yesterday, and this morning they were further hit by the overall drop of Ethereum reserve concept stocks. Today, even if they see good news like 'whales increasing positions' and 'institutions adding holdings', they still feel anxious and wonder: 'Is this a trap to lure me in?' Under such emotions, the market is more likely to follow the script of 'good news leading to bad outcomes'. From the funding perspective, although whales holding $145000000 seems fierce, most of it is spread across multiple currencies (BTC/ETH/SOL/SUI), offering limited individual support for ETH; while Bitmine's increase in holdings may be a long-term bullish signal, in the short term, it could be interpreted as a smokescreen for 'pumping and dumping'.
Retail investors' operational logic today
Why do I judge today to be bearish? The core is just two points:
The technical aspect can't hold the key level: 4670 pressure remains unchanged, and 4545 has become the dividing line between bulls and bears. If it can't break 4545, it will repeatedly rub between 4500-4545, and once it falls below 4500, panic selling will hit the 4475 or even 4450 support.
The favorable news is not substantial: whale holdings are 'diversified investment' rather than concentrating firepower on ETH, Bitmine's increase is a long-term layout, and in the short term, it may trigger profit-taking pressure.
For the cautious: today you need to hold back! Don't chase long positions, you can try shorting lightly near 4545 (stop loss at 4560), aiming for 4500-4475. If it directly breaks below 4500, wait for a pullback to 4510 to short, looking towards 4450.
For the aggressive: you can bet on a 'false breakout': if ETH suddenly surges past 4545 but quickly falls back, directly enter a short position, stop loss at 4570, target below 4500. Remember: quick in and out, don't linger in battle!
Remember my words: today's market is destined to be 'loud thunder but little rain', favorable news is just a sugar-coated shell, bears are the hidden BOSS! If you don't want to become the main force's harvested leeks, keep a close eye on the 4545 position—if it can't break through, it's the bears' hunting moment!
Where do you think this wave will squat? Tell Xuanji in the comments! Follow Xuanji, I will help you expose the traps behind the candlesticks in the most straightforward way, the crypto world plays on cognitive differences—if you are a step behind, you may lose money; if you are a step ahead, you can benefit! #美联储降息预期升温 $ETH