Dear coin friends, I am Xuanji , a veteran in the crypto circle. Watching the XPL candlestick chart is like watching a horror movie — the price dances the tango against a black background, with the Bollinger Bands and moving averages acting like the dance partners' leashes, but the big funds behind the scenes have already started betting on the shorts. My view is very direct: XPL is standing on the edge of a cliff, and a slight breeze could either plunge it into the abyss or launch it into the sky. Tonight, will it be a short party or a bull counterattack? The suspense is here — will this $5 million USDC three times leverage short position become the last straw that breaks the camel's back?
Market sentiment analysis—retail investors' direction today
Now, connecting this suspense, let's talk about market sentiment. The recent news shows that a new wallet dumped 5 million USDC on HyperLiquid to short XPL, using 3x leverage to amplify risk—this clearly indicates that large funds are betting on a short-term decline, suggesting that institutional sentiment towards XPL is turning bearish. Meanwhile, the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 50 basis points in September is only 5.8%, which means the macro environment is leaning hawkish, and market liquidity may tighten, putting overall pressure on the cryptocurrency market. Combined, retail investors' direction today should be: cautious observation, avoiding blind chasing of prices. In terms of sentiment, most retail investors may feel panic or hesitation, as an increase in short positions can trigger selling pressure, but if the key level of 0.68 holds, it may trigger a rebound. Remember, the market is always emotional—today, don't let FOMO drive you, but respond with a calm mind.
Trading direction logic: why should retail investors proceed this way?
The logic is simple, based on technicals and news:
Technical aspect: From the K-line chart, resistance is at 0.7, the key level is 0.68, and support is at 0.6455. The current price is around 0.6584, below the key level, indicating a short-term weakness. The middle track of the Bollinger Bands at 0.6525 is dynamic support; if breached, it may accelerate the decline.
News aspect: An increase in short positions directly exerts pressure on prices, amplifying risk from leverage, which may lead to a short-term crash; the low probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates reinforces the strength of the dollar, negatively impacting risk assets like XPL. Logical conclusion: Today leans towards higher downward risk, but there may be rebound opportunities near the support level. Retail investors should adopt a defensive stance and wait for clear signals.
Xuanji short-term trading strategy: clear and practical, with support and resistance
For retail investors' operations today, I provide specific strategies—remember, survival first, profit second:
Support level: 0.6455, if it drops here, consider a small position to try going long, but must set a stop-loss below 0.6400, as breaching it may accelerate the decline.
Resistance level: 0.7, rebounding here is a selling point, don't be greedy.
Watershed: 0.68, this is the battlefield for bulls and bears today—if the price stabilizes above 0.68, can look long in the short term; if it breaks below, decisively look short, targeting the support level.
Xuanji practical advice:
If going long, only enter near the small support level of 0.65, stop-loss at 0.6450, target 0.68.
If going short, open shorts in the rebound zone of 0.69-0.70, stop-loss at 0.7050, target 0.66.
Survival tips: Use limit orders to avoid slippage, control position size within 10%, and leverage should not exceed 3 times—news volatility is high and can easily trigger liquidation. Today's market may be volatile, observe more and act less, wait for trends to clarify.
I am Xuanji , my view is firm: XPL faces downward pressure in the short term, but the battle for the key level will determine the direction. Don't be intimidated by the news; the technicals are your navigator.
I am Xuanji , after years of trials and hardships in this market, I’ve encountered more pitfalls than you’ve walked roads. Follow me to avoid ten years of detours— in the crypto market, following the right people is 100 times more important than blind efforts! If you don't know how to hit the points, feel free to find me in the village, I’m here to support fans 24 hours a day! #比特币ETF连续三周资金净流入
