Bitcoin has broken through $110,000, but the rise of altcoins is still below expectations!
Bitcoin has returned to $110,000 this time, which is actually more influenced by macro factors. Last night there were two significant positive developments: one is the progress in US-China negotiations, although no final agreement has been reached, the lifting of export controls by the Americans shows that both sides are engaging in active dialogue. Negotiations will continue tonight, and if they can ultimately eliminate reciprocal tariffs, the market could rise again.
The driving force behind this round of Bitcoin's rise is institutions, which is completely different from previous bull markets. The market trend is no longer related to the funds in the market; it all depends on how much institutions are willing to invest. Last night, Bitcoin ETFs saw an inflow of nearly $400 million, and Ethereum ETFs saw an inflow of $52 million. BlackRock's iBit has set a record by reaching $70 billion faster than any previous ETF, three times quicker than gold ETFs. Additionally, MicroStrategy disclosed that it purchased 1,045 Bitcoins between February 8 and 8, with an average price of $105,426. There are also various listed companies mimicking MicroStrategy. Given the scale of global capital, the ceiling of the crypto market has not yet been reached.
Altcoins have indeed experienced a wave of broad gains, but the increase is still far below expectations. It can be seen that the funds have not yet shown the determination to take a leap; everyone seems to be observing, seemingly waiting for the signal that Bitcoin has firmly stood at $110,000 before making any moves. However, the altcoin season index has indeed improved, with 29 coins among the top 100 in market capitalization rising more than Bitcoin, which is slightly more than a few days ago, but this proportion is still not enough.
However, the key point is that ETH's performance this time is quite good, with the eth/btc exchange rate rising to 0.0245 today. The current resistance is around 0.026. If Ethereum starts to gain momentum, then the altcoin season is likely to begin, with strong altcoins mainly revolving around several sectors: meme, rwa, ai, defi, and public chains.
This round of the bull market isn't about buying anything that can rise; it's about choosing coins with support and holding on to them—this is the hard truth. The era of random buying is over; the participants have changed, and the game has upgraded, becoming more complex and brutal. If it was said that someone was manipulating the market before, the new players now are simply ruthless, giving retail investors no chance to breathe. The current market conditions are actually very unfriendly to retail investors in the spot market.
The fundamental reason for altcoins rising less than expected is still the lack of interest rate cut expectations!
On one hand, altcoins are queuing up for unlocks; in the next 7 days, there will be significant single unlocks (unlock amounts greater than $5 million), including APT, STRK, IMX, SEI, MOVE, etc.
In addition, there will be significant linear unlocks (daily unlock amounts greater than $1 million) in the next 7 days, including SOL, WLD, TIA, DOGE, TAO, AVAX, SUI, DOT, IP, MORPHO, NEAR, ETHFI, JTO, etc., with a total unlock amount exceeding $341 million.
On the other hand, ME 'Federal Reserve Watch' shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in June is 99.9%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 0.1%.
The probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged in July is 83.4%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 16.5%.
The expectation for interest rate cuts has been pushed to 2026, with Citigroup predicting that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by a cumulative 50 basis points in January and March of 2026.
How can an altcoin bull market come if the Federal Reserve doesn't provide liquidity?
So how do we talk about altcoins now? The market makers are ruthless; as soon as they see everyone rushing to buy, they crash the price, causing you to lose money when you buy. But if no one buys, they slowly grind the price up, and by the time you realize, there are no cheap chips left to pick up.
This Wednesday's CPI data and Thursday's PPI data are the most crucial, as they are the last two inflation reports before the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting (the first in two months). The market expects the Federal Reserve to announce a rate decision, but more importantly, it will assess the US economy, inflation, and medium-term monetary policy.
Another potential focus that could trigger volatility is the 10-year Treasury auction on Wednesday. Although this event seems unrelated, it may induce sharp fluctuations as the bond market continues to decline. Looking back at the last US Treasury auction: weak demand caused yields to soar, triggering a sudden drop in the stock market, and this trend also transmitted to Bitcoin's intraday price.
Finally, attention should be paid to the US-China trade negotiations. The two sides will hold a new round of consultations in London today. If progress is limited, it may exacerbate short-term selling pressure (especially since the market has partially priced in today's positive expectations). If positive signals regarding the trade agreement emerge, it will be beneficial for US stocks and the dollar.
Brothers, come gather in the chat room quickly:
