Last night, Bitcoin ETF continued to see capital inflows of 430 million, and Ethereum also had strong net inflows of 125 million. Other listed companies are also buying. The current amount of capital in the market supports Bitcoin to remain around 110k. As for whether it will hit new highs, I believe we still need to wait for more positive developments in tariff negotiations and increased expectations for interest rate cuts. Therefore, tonight's CPI also needs our attention. Currently, expectations for both core and broad CPI are higher than previous values, indicating that the market believes inflation has started to rebound. If Trump can manipulate some false data to pressure Powell into cutting rates, then tonight might see a rise. Conversely, if CPI exceeds expectations, the market may pull back.
The farce involving Musk and Trump has officially ended. Musk formally apologized to Trump on Twitter, expressing regret over some comments made about the president. He stated that they went too far last week and even tagged Trump in the apology, making it very formal.
Regarding altcoins, there have been updates on the SOL ETF. Last night, the SEC requested the issuer of the proposed spot SOL ETF to submit a revised S-1 form within the week. Industry insiders believe this ETF will be approved within 3 to 5 weeks. Additionally, there are reports that the SEC seems willing to accept proposals that include staking mechanisms, which is beneficial not only for SOL but also for ETH.
Last night, both ETH and SOL showed strong performances. It seems that altcoin ETFs are on the way, which is expected to bring about a wave of altcoin market activity. Bloomberg believes the market is about to enter the altcoin ETF phase and has provided the approval rates for other altcoin ETFs in 2025: LTC 90%, SOL 90%, XRP 85%, DOGE 80%, HBAR 80%, ADA 75%, DOT 75%, AVAX 75%, SUI 60%, TRX is uncertain. These are all coins worth watching, basically belonging to the ETF sector.
ETH drove some related altcoins to rise yesterday, briefly surging to 2834 points, slightly surpassing the previous high of 2788. From the trend, it can be said with relative certainty that after the very severe market washout from February to April this year, ETH's big market trend finally shows signs of beginning.
From a fundamental perspective, several key factors in the recent period are relatively favorable for ETH, such as the regulatory framework for stablecoins and the advancement of real-world assets (RWA), which are essentially beneficial for the Ethereum ecosystem. On the other hand, the U.S. SEC's attitude towards ETH staking is gradually loosening, which also opens up imagination for ETH's long-term value.
In the future, the proportion of ETH held by listed companies like Sbet may continue to increase, and on a macro level, the Fed's rate-cutting cycle is still ongoing.
In the past couple of days, altcoins related to Ethereum have shown performance. If Ethereum can lead the way in rising, it would definitely be great news for the entire altcoin market!
However, there isn't enough money in the market right now, and the atmosphere isn't that hot. It's unrealistic to expect all coins to rise simultaneously. The most likely scenario is that different types of coins will take turns rising. If Ethereum can get off to a good start and drive this 'turn-taking rise' situation, it will give altcoins a strong boost, allowing everyone to have more confidence and be more willing to invest.
To summarize: If Ethereum can rise steadily and for a longer duration, we can expect more small coins to follow suit.
Is this wave of increase a rebound or a reversal? The key lies in two points:
Can Ethereum really stand strong on its own without following the rise and fall of Bitcoin?
Secondly, the requirements for Bitcoin are not high; as long as it can stabilize without falling, even if it just remains flat, that would be the best situation for the current market.
The increase in the past few days is entirely related to the progress of the trade negotiations between China and the U.S., which is currently receiving high attention from the global financial community. If the negotiation results are better than expected, it will undoubtedly be strong positive news for the market, possibly driving further increases.
The information coming from the U.S. side is relatively optimistic, for example, Trump mentioned, 'All I hear is good news,' giving a sense that the negotiations might progress smoothly. However, the Chinese side has been relatively low-key, only stating that communication is smooth and not revealing more details.
If the negotiations are officially realized in the next few days and the results indeed exceed the market's original expectations, the market may experience a rapid increase again. From the recent stock price trends, it is also possible that some insiders have already caught wind of the news and entered the market early.
However, regardless of how the negotiation results turn out, the current price level is already in a sensitive range. If one blindly chases after rises at this time, once the market reacts worse than expected or experiences a short-term pullback, the downtrend space may not be small. For those trading in segments, if the timing goes wrong, the risk of loss may increase.
Today and tomorrow, the CPI and PPI data will be released. The inflation data will reflect the impact of tariffs, and current market expectations are not very optimistic. If the data is indeed negative, it may have a bit of an impact on interest rate cut expectations and market sentiment.
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