Today is June 7th. I wish all candidates good luck!
From the current state of the crypto circle, I'm not sending any high school exam wishes. If you've come across my article and recognized me, it basically means you probably won't get into any good schools. After the exam on the 9th, come find me to get a phone to browse Alpha, haha, just kidding. If any fans are students, I sincerely wish you good results.
Back to the market, the negative sentiment brought by Trump and Musk quickly dissipated, and there's also talk of reconciliation. Currently, it can be seen that this online feud has not escalated. As mentioned yesterday, without this 'argument', market sentiment is actually stable, and there are no major macro or event-driven bearish factors.
Last night's employment data was not bad either. Of course, there's no hope for a rate cut in the short term, but it's not that bad either. It was reported early in the morning that the US will hold a meeting with the University of Tokyo in London on the 9th. Hopefully, there will be some optimistic expectations reached. Moreover, Trump has once again called for a rate cut. The S&P has already rebounded to 6,000 points, and market sentiment is good.
Even though Circle's popularity remains high and is driving up prices, and new crypto companies are submitting IPOs, BTC is still lackluster, maintaining a narrow range of fluctuations in the short term. It's the weekend, and today can still maintain Friday's sentiment. The main focus will be on tomorrow night and Monday.
After the Prague upgrade, Bitcoin ETFs have been flowing out continuously while Ethereum ETFs continue to flow in. What does this indicate?
Ethereum ETFs have seen a continuous inflow for 15 days, while Bitcoin has been flowing out. This also indicates that changes are quietly happening in the market.
As mentioned before, the Prague upgrade has significant implications for the upcoming Ethereum ETF staking in the US. Once Ethereum ETF staking is implemented, holding the ETF can yield staking profits, with an annualized interest rate of around 5%.
The Prague upgrade has significantly reduced costs and increased speed across the entire Ethereum network. These two points are on par with SOL, but the most important aspects of Ethereum are security and decentralization, which SOL lacks. For traditional institutions and those traditional investors, Ethereum is safe and stable. Moreover, holding it not only means the price will rise in the future, but there is also a 5% staking interest every year, which is very appealing to institutions.
So, this is why Ethereum ETFs have been continuously flowing in recently while Bitcoin ETFs are flowing out. As those century-old institutions and seasoned investors in traditional industries, they know where the future opportunities lie.
Why aren't the prices rising?
Actually, it's the same as when the BTC ETF first came out. In the beginning, many institutions also flowed in while the price remained stagnant. After holding a certain amount, they used real money to push the price up. The same applies to Ethereum's ETF, but Ethereum didn't initially attract institutions because BTC's consensus cannot be compared to that of Ethereum. However, with the changes brought about by the Prague upgrade, it just happens to attract institutions. This can be seen from Ethereum's recent net inflow. Once institutions hold a certain amount, the funds for pushing the price up will also enter the market.
In the past few days, altcoins have plummeted again. However, we have discussed this overall direction before:
What was the market phase before May? At that time, the market basically was: a period of decline -> a slight rebound -> then another decline. The decline was the main theme, and many people couldn't hold on and had to sell even at a loss. There were also those who, seeing a slight rebound, excitedly rushed to buy, only to end up buying at the peak and getting trapped.
On May 29th, the market suddenly had a big surge, coupled with some good news from outside, many people thought the bull market had really arrived, full of confidence, rushing in to increase their positions and refusing to sell. What happened? The market then slammed down heavily.
I previously warned that once most people in the market feel that it’s time to buy, those large funds may very well go short. The same goes for Bitcoin. When it rises to a key position, many people think it will break through and rush in to buy, only to see the price drop back down and get trapped.
We estimate that we may have to wait until the price of Bitcoin (BTC) breaks through the key psychological price of $100,000 for market sentiment to completely collapse. However, it is precisely because this position is so important.
If the market slowly rises, it will max out around $109,500, and that's when you should consider selling (cashing out). Don't chase to buy. Conversely, if the market truly drops to around $97,000 and then oscillates there for a few days before starting to rise again, that could actually be the rhythm of 'washing out the unsteady ones and then truly charging upwards.' In that case, the chances of breaking through $109,500 later would be even greater.
Ethereum (ETH) is currently rebounding, coinciding with an important previous level (where it used to support prices, now it has become a barrier to rising). This hurdle is tough to get over. If you are trading short-term, I suggest selling a portion at this position.
But if you plan to hold for a long time, there's no need to be too anxious. Even if it really falls back to around $2,200, that would be the worst-case scenario, and the issue isn't significant. Moreover, the decline has already completed half, as long as the rhythm doesn't get disrupted, it may stabilize soon.
As mentioned in the article on May 31, Pepe, Sui, and Aave are positions that can be traded in waves, and can also be held for the long term. Right now, Sui is the highlight of the day, rebounding to 3.25. These three tokens are the first choice for both short and long-term trading.
Brothers, gather in the chat room: