财经少华

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For four consecutive weeks, the third place on the Alcoin V ranking list has changed again and again.

Only the world's richest man Musk ranked first and I ranked second have not changed.

I have really become the second place for a thousand years😍😂😅🤭😁

Ordinary days shine because of gatherings; may every gathering become that eternal light in our hearts, illuminating the path we walk ahead.

Analyze PEPE

PEPE has shown strong market performance recently, consistently ranking high in price increases and leading in trading volume, with the following dynamics:

High Price and Trading Volume: In the past 24 hours, the price has increased by 9.23%, and the trading volume has exceeded 1 billion USD (an increase of 46%), making it the only token of this scale on the gainers list. The surge in trading volume is driven by both spot accumulation and active futures trading.

Bullish Sentiment in the Futures Market: Short positions lost 2.55 million USD in 24 hours, while long positions only lost 708,000 USD, indicating a significant profit and loss gap between bulls and bears. The long-to-short ratio reached 1.06 (above 1), and the weighted financing rate of open interest has been positive for three consecutive days, with the market continuously betting on upward movement.

Spot Holders Actively Accumulating Coins: Long-term holders bought 6 million USD worth of PEPE in the past 24 hours and transferred it to private wallets. If this continues, it may trigger a supply crunch, further driving up prices.

Current market bullish momentum is dominant, but caution should be exercised regarding high volatility risks, as short-term trends may be influenced by capital flows and changes in sentiment.

#PEPE

Analyze XRP

According to data, the probability of XRP spot ETF approval skyrocketed to 92% in 2025 (an increase of 22% since early May), and investor enthusiasm is at an all-time high.

Key drivers:
Legal obstacles cleared: In March 2025, the SEC withdrew its lawsuit against Ripple. Although the settlement signing was delayed due to document issues, market confidence has been restored.

Futures market warming up: The CME's XRP futures ETF launched in mid-May performed well, validating market maturity.

Market response:
Several asset management companies have submitted ETF applications, with market expectations for approval within the year.

XRP price strengthened in the short term, rising by 6% at one point within 24 hours, currently quoted at $2.23 (an increase of 1.63%), signaling a buying opportunity.

Potential impact:
If the ETF is approved, it may attract more institutional funds, enhance XRP liquidity and market recognition, and provide a reference for the compliance of cryptocurrencies. However, the SEC's final decision remains uncertain, and regulatory developments should be closely monitored.

#XRP

Analyze ADA

The price trend of ADA has uncertainty, with a possibility of recovery in the short term, but it also faces the risk of further decline. In the long run, under certain conditions, the overall trend remains bullish. The specific analysis is as follows:

Short-term trend:
In the past week, ADA has fallen below key support levels due to market structure changes, with a price drop of over 10%. However, after dropping to a critical area, whales began accumulating a large number of buy orders, triggering about a 3% recovery within 24 hours, which is an early sign of bullish pressure building. If the bulls seize the existing momentum and continue to make purchases, especially large ones, ADA may experience a short-term rebound.

Downside risk: The support level is weak, and if the bulls fail to seize the existing momentum, it may trigger a new wave of selling pressure, leading to further price declines. Traders and investors are waiting for lower lows and the recovery of the broken trend line to confirm a reversal. Until then, market sentiment is wavering, and ADA is in a fragile range.

Medium-term trend:
Whales gathering in demand areas usually signifies a bullish outlook in the medium term, but this also depends on whether demand can continue to rise. If demand continues to increase, ADA is expected to welcome a medium-term rebound trend. If demand cannot be sustained, the medium term may continue to face price fluctuations or even downward pressure.

Long-term trend: The overall long-term trend somewhat depends on whether the bullish sentiment of Bitcoin and other markets persists. If mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin continue to maintain bullish sentiment and the macro cryptocurrency market environment is favorable, then ADA is likely to maintain a bullish trend in the long run.

#ADA

The results of the trades yesterday (June 2) were quite satisfactory.

BTC entered at 105816, lowest at 103659, profit 2%

BNB entered at 653.6, highest at 673.76, profit 3%

ENS entered at 20.5, highest 7.9%, profit 7.9%

PEPE entered at 1156, highest at 1289, profit 11.5%

Analyze AVAX

AVAX has plummeted by 10% in the past week, while large holders of the AVAX token are increasing their net inflow of cryptocurrency, hoping to profit from the opportunity presented by the price drop.

In the past month, AVAX has decreased by 3.64%, and its performance over six months shows an even larger decline of 55.30%. The price trend indicates that the market is currently struggling to cope with downward pressure. After FIFA announced a blockchain partnership with AVAX, there was indeed a rise, but the trend reversed afterwards.

What is the next step for AVAX?
Avalanche coin AVAX is in a bearish state, and the latest price predictions indicate that its upward momentum is not as strong as before. It is expected that the asset will pull back to $21, but will not see significant increases again in June.

On the other hand, predictions suggest that AVAX will experience a surge later this year. It is forecasted that by July, AVAX could climb to $24 and continue to rise to an annual high of $50.94 by December 2025.

#AVAX

The recent pullback of Bitcoin is a 'healthy reset', not a collapse

Bitcoin is experiencing its first significant pullback since the low in April, after skyrocketing by 50%, rising from $74,501 to an all-time high of $111,880, followed by a decline.

This pullback reflects a change in market rhythm, after nearly 50 days of consecutive gains with very little retracement. This pullback is not merely technical, but occurs against a backdrop of significant macroeconomic pressures following the unexpected reinstatement of tariffs by the U.S. government, which has led to the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield breaking above 5% and heightened risk aversion.

Despite the pullback, Bitcoin's structural strength remains robust, and this pullback seems to be a healthy reset rather than a collapse, driven by deleveraging and profit-taking after one of the strongest recoveries in cryptocurrency history. Additionally, the cryptocurrency industry may also experience a wave of significant developments across corporations, regulatory bodies, and even the global financial sector.

#BTC

Analysis of Bitcoin's Dominance and Altcoin Trends

Currently, Bitcoin's price remains above $100,000, but the trend is declining, suggesting the market may shift towards altcoins. Long-term holders are reducing their BTC holdings, indicating a decrease in mid-to-long-term positions, which may weaken Bitcoin's dominance.

Logic for Altcoin Rise
Historical Cycle Pattern: Altcoins typically perform better in the latter half of market cycles, experiencing bull markets after the market lows of 2016 and 2020; the current macro signals are similar to those lows, and stronger returns may be realized in the next 1-3 years due to long-cycle consolidation.

Capital Rotation Effect: If Bitcoin breaks through resistance levels, capital may flow from BTC to altcoins, driving their prices up. Conversely, if holders maintain strong positions and new capital is insufficient, altcoins may continue to lag behind.

Market Sentiment Signals: Data shows that reductions in mid-to-long-term holdings have historically triggered price increases, suggesting that altcoins have upward momentum.

Current Situation and Risk Warning
Short-term Caution: Data indicates that the altcoin seasonal index is only 22, suggesting that the “altcoin peak season” has not yet begun, with weak market share growth and a bull market yet to start.

Long-term Potential: Trends and macro conditions indicate that the altcoin bear market may be nearing its end, requiring patience for capital allocation and a shift in market sentiment.

#BTC

Ethereum (ETH) Analysis:

Bullish News
Pectra Upgrade: Completed in May, the maximum validator staking amount increased from 32 ETH to 2048 ETH, improving network efficiency.
SEC Clarifies Staking as Non-Security: Reduces regulatory uncertainty, benefiting the staking ecosystem.
Participation of Traditional Financial Institutions: Several US banks involved in ETH staking, indicating increased mainstream acceptance.
ETF Progress: REX Shares applied to launch a staking ETF based on ETH and Solana, likely to be approved in the short term.

Technical Aspect:
BTC/ETH Exchange Rate: Currently at a critical position of 0.0269; if broken, it may trigger an ETH rebound, but an independent market still needs to be observed, as the market is still dominated by BTC.
8-Hour Chart: ETH's pullback is smaller than BTC's, showing relatively stable performance, but it has not broken critical points, raising doubts about the possibility of an independent market.

Summary and Suggestions:
Ethereum: Frequent bullish news, price faces upward pressure, but limited by the BTC-dominated market environment; an independent market needs a BTC/ETH exchange rate break of 0.0269 as a signal.

Operational Suggestions: Cautiously bearish in the short term, avoid excessive pessimism, pay attention to US market sentiment and ETF capital flows, while also monitoring developments related to ETH staking.

#ETH

Bitcoin (BTC) Analysis:

Capital Flow:
American investors and institutions are the main driving force behind this round of market movement. The inflow of spot ETF funds shows that their sentiment is high, continuing to buy even when prices are at high levels. Asian market funds, on the other hand, are following the trend, with buying interest becoming cautious at high levels and lacking proactivity.

Technical Analysis:
Short-term profit-loss ratio: The current loss ratio is 22.4%, far below the 40-50% needed to signal a stop in decline, indicating that Bitcoin has not yet shown signs of halting its downward trend.

Chip Distribution:
Zone A ($100,000 - $105,000): Chips are concentrated, with $101,500 being an important support level, and $100,000 being a psychological barrier.
Zone B ($93,000 - $98,000): This zone has the most chips and the strongest support, with the highest probability of a pullback.
Zone C ($81,000 - $87,000): There are fewer chips here, with a lower probability of a pullback; the 0.618 retracement level is approximately $88,800.
Weekly range: $74,000 - $110,000, with the highest likelihood of a pullback to Zone B, while the chance of a complete retracement of the entire wave of increase is low.

Trend Judgment:
Short-term bearish, but indicators show it has not yet reached extreme high levels; it is recommended to avoid excessive bearishness.
Overall, the market is still dominated by the sentiment and funds from the U.S. market, with the Asian market being more passive in following trends.

#BTC

Bitcoin is consolidating around $105,500, but the market may be in the early stages of a new super cycle.

Bitcoin is currently trading at around $105,500, near a key support level, with market sentiment cautious. This level could be a turning point for short-term directional choices; if it breaks down, it may test support around $74,573,058,490,103,000. If it holds, it may look to challenge $115,000 again.

On the other hand, although the market is highly volatile in the short term, the long-term outlook remains optimistic, as the long-term upward trend has not been broken, and it is expected to potentially challenge the $115,000 level again, currently possibly in the early stages of a new super cycle.

#BTC

Recently, the most discussed topic with friends is whether you can make money by speculating in the cryptocurrency circle? It is extremely difficult to make a living by trading in the cryptocurrency circle. It is essentially an anti-human and high-risk survival challenge. The following analyzes its core difficulties from the dimensions of market rules, ability threshold, psychological loss, etc.:

1. Market essence: the anti-human dilemma of zero-sum game

Cryptocurrency trading is a "negative-sum game". Retail investors need to fight against hidden costs such as handling fees and dealer control, and more than 90% of them suffer long-term losses.

Profit logic goes against instinct:

Dare to buy when falling (overcome fear), dare to sell when rising (restrain greed), and short positions when weak (fight trading impulse). Most people find it difficult to break through human weaknesses.

2. Survival threshold: the double crushing of information gap and fund management

Cognitive barriers: dealers dominate the market with funds and insider information, and retail investors rely on fragmented information (such as KOL shouting orders) and are easily harvested. Professional capabilities such as on-chain analysis and macroeconomics require long-term accumulation.

Fund life and death line: Full position and leverage trading are extremely risky (e.g., a 10x leverage fluctuation of 10% means liquidation), and the average survival period of contract traders is less than 3 months.

3. Psychological loss: chronic consumption of loneliness and emotions
Trading directly impacts emotions: self-blame for losses, regret for missing out, and worry about gains and losses in profits. Long-term high pressure can easily lead to insomnia and social isolation. Market cases of sudden wealth amplify the "survivor bias" and cover up the truth that "one general's success is the result of the sacrifice of thousands of people".

4. Sustainability challenges: strategy iteration and uncontrollable risks
Strategy timeliness: market rules change rapidly, technical indicators may fail in reverse, and strategies need to be continuously optimized.

Macro risks: policy supervision, technological changes (such as Web3.0), and black swan events (such as exchange explosions) can instantly destroy accumulation.

Cognitive reconstruction: admit that trading is a "probability game", focus on risk control, and give up predicting the market.

Ability foundation: master basic analysis (technical aspects + on-chain data + macroeconomics), and use simulation disks to verify strategies.

Rational investment: Use spare money to trade, set profit targets and exit mechanisms, and avoid greedy withdrawals.

Conclusion
Trading for a living is suitable for very few people - they need to have anti-human discipline, continuous learning ability and stress resistance. For most people, it is more practical to invest in mainstream currencies and accumulate capital by deepening their main business.

In the cryptocurrency world, “survival is a life or death struggle”, and “staying alive” is more important than “getting rich quickly”.

Analyze Bitcoin

The price trend of Bitcoin remains bullish, suggesting the establishment of long positions near $104,000, with a target price of $120,000 (expected to be reached by mid-June). The current pullback is a normal market adjustment, consistent with the bullish trend, and market liquidity is increasing. However, retail participation is low, indicating that the rise may be driven by institutional investors or large holders, which provides sustainability.

Key Point Analysis:
Current Price and Market Conditions:
The current price of Bitcoin is $104,824, having risen 0.7% in the past 24 hours, but trading volume has decreased by 34.21%, reflecting reduced market activity. The price has formed a "monthly open trap" below $104,000, presenting a buying opportunity.

Bullish Forecast:
The target price for Bitcoin is $120,000, based on bullish factors: low participation, high liquidity, and institutional-led "over-the-counter increases."

Risk Warning:
If Bitcoin falls below $97,000, the bullish signal will be invalidated. It is suggested to consider rebound trading below $97,000, with a target of $109,000 to manage risk.

Recommendations:
Long Strategy: Establish long positions near $104,000, with a target of $120,000 and a stop loss set below $97,000.

Risk Management: Pay attention to the $97,000 support level; if broken, consider rebound trading strategies.

Market Dynamics: The decrease in trading volume may indicate short-term volatility, so close monitoring of market participation and institutional fund movements is required.

#BTC

ENA will unlock 170 million tokens today, worth approximately 53.48 million USD, accounting for 1.146% of the total supply, with a current circulation of 4.62 billion tokens and a total supply of 15.0 billion tokens.

Bitcoin rose nearly 10% in May; what will the trend be in June?

Reasons for the rise in May:

Capital inflow: Spot ETF saw an inflow of $5.6 billion in a single month, and the amount held by listed companies increased to $85.6 billion (month-on-month +4%), with long-term allocation demand from enterprises supporting the price.

Policy and macroeconomic dynamics: Uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies has spurred demand for safe-haven assets, and the market expects monetary policy easing (indicating interest rate cuts), coupled with Bitcoin's scarcity (such as the halving mechanism), enhancing asset attractiveness.

Key points to watch in June:

Upward potential: The technical level needs to break through the $113,000 - $115,000 resistance level; if successful, it could aim for $130,000. Continued inflows into ETFs and the trend of enterprises increasing their holdings will provide long-term buying support.

Risk warnings:
Regulatory uncertainty: A Senate vote in early June may impact stablecoin liquidity, and another stablecoin bill in the House faces resistance, potentially escalating regulatory frictions.

Technical support testing: $109,000 is a key short-term support level; a drop below this could trigger selling pressure from bearish options.

Policy volatility risk: Macro variables such as Trump's tariff policies and the progress of China-U.S. trade negotiations may still trigger significant market fluctuations.

Industry trends:
The increase in blockchain adoption is changing market logic, with Bitcoin trading and discussion dimensions surpassing traditional macro data, but long-term risk resistance capabilities still need to be tested in more complex environments.

Recommendations:
Closely monitor policy nodes, technical breakout signals, and capital flows, and be alert to short-term volatility and regulatory risks.

The "Sell in May and Go Away" Strategy

The "Sell in May and Go Away" strategy suggests that investors exit the market in May and return in November, due to historically weak performance in the summer months (June to September). Bitcoin data partially supports this view, but when excluding bear market years such as 2014, 2018, and 2022, the average returns for summer months turn positive, with September profits at +0.37% and October reaching as high as +26%. This indicates that the summer slump is mainly driven by bear markets rather than a fixed pattern.

Cost of Compound Returns
Investing $100 in 2012 and holding continuously yields over $2 billion.

Exiting in May and returning in November: only $112 million, an 18-fold decrease.
Avoiding June to September: $536 million, only 1/4 of continuous holding. Missing the summer has weakened Bitcoin's exponential growth effect.

Current Market Outlook
On-chain indicators show that Bitcoin is far from reaching the cycle top, with a peak possibly coming in October 2025 or later. The summer could become a key rising period, and exiting may mean missing out on a bull market explosion.

Conclusion
Bitcoin prices are driven by supply and demand and macroeconomic factors, with limited influence from seasonal factors. A strong rise may occur in the summer of 2025, and investors should pay attention to on-chain and macro signals, discard the "Sell in May" cliché, and focus on long-term positioning.

In June, the Web3 industry welcomed a triple high-energy cycle of regulation, market, and technology.

The SEC's review of Grayscale's spot Ethereum ETF staking function has concluded, along with the House of Representatives' stablecoin hearing and DeFi roundtable, marking the ongoing advancement of U.S. regulatory actions.

Macroeconomic data such as non-farm payrolls, CPI, and FOMC interest rate decisions will also impact market sentiment.

On the project side, leading projects like ZKsync, Sui, Aptos, and Starknet are experiencing large-scale token unlocks, which are worth paying close attention to.

Bitcoin Halving Cycle and Price Prediction

Bitcoin sets the miner reward to halve every four years, creating a four-year bull and bear cycle. The historical halving dates are:
November 2012: 50 coins → 25 coins
July 2016: 25 coins → 12.5 coins
May 2020: 12.5 coins → 6.25 coins
April 2024: 6.25 coins → 3.125 coins
The next halving is expected in 2028, and the cycle logic remains unchanged.

Historical Patterns: New Highs After Halving and Time Cycles
Time Pattern: Each halving takes about 540 days to reach a new price high (this has been the case for the first three rounds).
The new high after the 2012 halving took 540 days, an increase of 10,752%;
The new high after the 2016 halving took 549 days, an increase of 2,263%;
The new high after the 2020 halving took 562 days, an increase of 662%;
After the halving in April 2024, based on the cycle, the new high point may be around October 2025 (about 1 year has passed, approximately 5 months remaining).

Increase Pattern: The multiplication of increases decreases after each halving:
2012-2016: Increase multiplication 4.75 (10,752% → 2,263%)
2016-2020: Increase multiplication 3.41 (2,263% → 662%)
2020-2024: Current increase 76% (after 6.25 coins → 3.125 coins), far below historical levels.

Current High Point Prediction: Mathematical Model and Interval Estimation
Using an average price of $65,000 as a baseline, combined with the historical decrease in multiplication:
If the increase multiplication is 2 (conservative):
$65,000 × (1 + 200%) = $195,000
If the increase multiplication is 2.5 (neutral):
$65,000 × (1 + 250%) = $227,500
If the multiplication approaches the historical minimum value of 1.31 (corresponding to $150,000): $65,000 × 1.31 ≈ $85,150 (closest to the current price, but less likely).

Conclusion: Combining cycle patterns and decreasing multiplications, the current high point is likely within the range of $170,000 - $230,000, with $150,000 being a more conservative definite target; higher points will need to observe market liquidity and the macroeconomic environment.