June Non-Farm Payrolls Exceed Expectations, Fed Rate Cut in July Unlikely

On Thursday, data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that U.S. non-farm data was better than expected, with an unexpected decline in the unemployment rate.

In June, the U.S. non-farm employment population recorded 147,000, higher than the expected 110,000, and the previous value was revised from 139,000 to 144,000. The U.S. unemployment rate for June recorded 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3%, and below the previous value of 4.20%.

June's average hourly wage month-on-month rate recorded 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.30%, with the previous value at 0.40%. The average hourly wage year-on-year rate recorded 3.7%, lower than the expected 3.90%, with the previous value revised from 3.90% to 3.8%.

After the data release, the U.S. Dollar Index touched 97, rising 0.39% for the day. Spot gold briefly fell by $19, breaking below $3320 per ounce.

Following the non-farm data release, interest rate futures traders abandoned bets on a Fed rate cut in July, with the market currently estimating an approximately 80% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, down from 98% before the non-farm employment report was released.