US non-farm payroll data will be released tonight, and the US stock market may experience significant fluctuations as a result.

If the employment data released is similar to the weak trend of the earlier ADP report, the US stock market is likely to see a significant sell-off.

JPMorgan has set different scenarios for market reactions:

An increase of 85,000-105,000 may lead to a decline of 0.25%-1.50% in the S&P 500 index.

If it is below 85,000, the S&P 500 index could plummet by 2.00%-3.00%.

The report warns: "In the worst case, the market will face the risk of stagflation (weak economic growth accompanied by high inflation), and at that point, both fiscal and monetary policies may be powerless."

The report specifically points out: "As long as the non-farm data is above 100,000, the stock market will still receive support." Of course, employment data has also exceeded expectations before and may do so again.

JPMorgan predicts:

An increase of 125,000-145,000 may lead to a rise of 0.75%-1.25% in the S&P 500 index.

If it exceeds 145,000, the S&P 500 index's gains may expand to 1.00%-1.50%.