交易_笔记

Hot News:
1. Whale #JamesWynn's Bitcoin long position is currently up by $400,000, having once been down over $1.35 million. Currently, his long position size is about $100 million, with an opening price of $105,890.3 and a liquidation price of $103,620. More people question whether his actions are part of #Hyperliquid's intentional marketing.

2. A certain whale increased its holdings of over 110,000 HYPE at an average price of $36, while also going long on #HYPE with 4 times leverage;

3. Tether's Bitcoin reserve address transferred out 14,000 #BTC, valued at $1.48 billion;

4. #Strategy plans to issue 2.5 million shares of STRD stock to increase its BTC holdings. Bloomberg reported that Strategy imitators are performing poorly, and the speculative frenzy is gradually fading;

BTC
Last week's weekly line closed negative, which is in line with the time point of the change mentioned in the daily report! The seven-week winning streak ended! The closing price of the weekly line this week is very critical, pay attention to 103068! If it falls below, there will be further room for exploration!
The current H4 oscillation range is 103000-108000! Pay attention to the distribution opportunities of 108700-110700 on the top! Wait for the accumulation opportunities after the liquidity plunder below 102000 on the bottom!

ETH
Short-term rebound 2550, but continue to look down! If the rebound stands, the target is 2630-2650! Long orders are arranged and wait for the liquidity of these low points below to be plundered before entering the market! You can pay attention to the trading opportunities that are first touched at 2438-2400 and 2398-2348!

Hot news:

1. Whale #JamesWynn lost over $96 million in 7 days, currently holding long positions in #BTC and #PEPE, after multiple liquidations and stop losses, only $800,000 remains;
2. REX Shares applies for Solana and Ethereum staking ETF; the staking ETF is about to arrive, with more and more being locked up;

3. SharpLink Gaming submitted a $1 billion S-3 ASR registration, intending to use the raised funds to increase its holdings of ETH;

The U.S. stock market is the real imitation; the imitation season actually occurs in the U.S. stock market;

4. Trump plans to raise steel tariffs to 50%, providing political support for US Steel and Nippon Steel transactions;

Analysis of the current status of the encryption market:

BTC
OK! 106300, H4 fell below to form a structural destruction, the current rebound 107400-108500 rejected, then continue to wait for the price reaction of 103780-102000! The logic of the daily report is to make a deterministic transaction!

ETH
At 2608, H1 broke through to form structural damage, and the H4 pin range middle track rebound was relatively strong, but it ultimately depends on the intention of the main force. At least yesterday's breakthrough was confirmed to be a false breakthrough. After completing the plunder of liquidity above 2740, the price has the probability of plundering liquidity downward! The current rebound is 2640-2660, but there is still a probability of a second downward exploration. The lower 2550-2510 continues to wait for testing! If it falls below, then we must pay attention to the lower edge 2398-2348!

Market dynamics analysis:

BTC
107400-106300 is holding again! However, a lower equal point has been formed here, and it will be plundered sooner or later! The upper side still looks for selling opportunities at 110900-111980 pressure! Only by stabilizing above 120,000 can it be confirmed that the rise will continue!

ETH
The Ethereum army is rising independently, currently plundering the liquidity of 2740. Here we observe whether it is a valid breakthrough? The daily line is still within the pressure zone of 2745-2857, which means that only by stabilizing in this area can the daily structure continue to rise! The current support area for a pullback is 2640-2608! A drop below 2608 would indicate a potential correction!

SOL
Keep following the fluctuations of Bitcoin. If it stabilizes at 175, there is hope to plunder liquidity upwards to 179! Otherwise, if it does not hold 177-179, continue waiting for the price reaction in the range of 167-165!

The first day of Bitcoin 2025 came to an end. What did the bigwigs say?
1⃣Donald Trump Jr., Trump’s eldest son: The floodgates of BTC are opening;
2⃣ David Sacks, Director of Cryptocurrency and Artificial Intelligence at the White House (Crypto Tsar): We believe that blockchain, BTC, and cryptocurrency are the financial system of the future;
3⃣ Trump Administration Executive Director: BTC is the gold standard;
4⃣ U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming: Trump supports her BTC bill, which proposes to build a strategic BTC reserve and purchase 1 million BTC;
5⃣Robert Mitchnick, head of digital assets at BlackRock: BTC has much more room to rise than gold;

I. The Essence of Trends
1. Trends are not technical indicators, but a collective explosion of market sentiment
- Moving averages and candlesticks are just post-event verification tools
- The true trend often contradicts common sense in its early formation
2. Trends have exclusivity
- Will not cater to everyone's understanding ability
- By the time you understand, the best opportunity has passed
II. Warning of Cognitive Pitfalls
1. Three common mistakes:
- Over-reliance on technical analysis (taking results as causes)
- Pursuing the 'perfect entry point' (missing the entire wave)
- Applying old experiences to new market conditions (carving a boat to seek a sword)
2. Lessons learned the hard way:
- Investors who held onto the ETH ecosystem last year

1. A bloodbath triggered by a single statement from Trump.
- When this old man makes a tough statement, Bitcoin immediately drops by 5000 points, and various altcoins generally fall by 10%-20%.
- It's actually just talk to scare people, but the market reacted excessively, leading to a liquidation of $590 million in leverage (of which $500 million was long positions).
- Every time such a sharp drop occurs, it 'stores fuel' for the next rise, which seasoned investors understand.
2. Don't take the tariff war too seriously.
- The U.S. and China imposing tariffs on each other is like two people arguing and flexing their muscles.
- With global inflation so high now, it doesn't benefit anyone to implement it.
- In the end, it’s likely to be more noise than action, but the market will definitely shake three times in the short term.

1. Why haven't I made money despite the rise?
1. Surface phenomenon:
- Bitcoin has indeed increased 7 times (from 15,000 to 110,000 USD)
- On-chain data shows 99% of holders are making a profit
2. Actual reasons:
① Wrong timing to enter: Chasing high positions leads to losses, and being afraid to buy at low positions
② Can't hold: Selling after a small rise, missing the main uptrend
③ Randomly buying altcoins: 90% of altcoins eventually go to zero
④ Frequent trading: Losses from fees + errors in execution
⑤ Poor position management: Being heavily invested and having no money to average down after being trapped
2. Three fatal mistakes ordinary people often make
1. Insufficient greed:
- Case: Someone made 5 times on an altcoin and didn't sell, ultimately losing their principal

SEC's new chairman Paul S. Atkins has made an important proposal: allowing compliant financial institutions to simultaneously custody and trade securities (such as stocks and bonds) and non-securities (such as cryptocurrencies and stablecoins) on the same platform. This change could have the following significant impacts:
1. The era of 'one-stop shopping' in financial services has arrived
- In the future, platforms like Coinbase will allow direct purchases of Bitcoin, US stocks, and even ETFs using USDC
- Investors no longer need to switch between multiple platforms, and trading costs will be significantly reduced
- Paving the way for a 'financial super app' similar to WeChat Pay

Three major cycles of industry development
Every industry will go through **innovation, bubble, and maturity** phases, and the crypto industry is no exception.
1. Innovation phase (2009-2016)
- Characteristics: New technologies emerge, but most people cannot understand them and even consider them scams.
- Example: In the early days of Bitcoin, 10,000 coins could only buy 2 pizzas, and a few people quietly laid out their plans.
- Opportunity: True disruptors often enter the scene when no one is paying attention.
2. Bubble phase (2017-2022)
- Characteristics: Speculation frenzy, prices soar and plummet, a large number of projects emerge but most are unreliable.

First, let's look at two counterintuitive data points (from (The Realm of Clarity)):
1. If you stubbornly hold without stop-loss, 98.8% of losing positions can recover in two weeks.
2. If you stubbornly hold profit positions, 91.3% of profitable positions can earn more in two weeks.
Do you find it contradictory? Clearly holding positions can recover losses, so why do they all end up liquidated? Let me break it down with a bloody history:
🟡 Stage 1: Beginner Welfare Period (Hold 1-3 times)
- Losing money without cutting, and the market indeed rebounds.
- Thinking to myself, 'If I had known not to set stop-loss, I could have earned more.'
- Starting to think stop-loss is a fool's behavior.
🟠 Stage 2: Boiling Frog (Hold 4-5 times)

The U.S. credit rating faces a "full sweep" downgrade! All three agencies have stripped the AAA crown!
Latest news:
Moody's rating agency officially announced today that it has downgraded the U.S. credit rating from the highest AAA to AA1. This means that the U.S. has now been stripped of its highest credit rating by all three major global rating agencies—S&P removed the U.S. AAA rating back in 2011, and Fitch took the same action last August.
Why the sudden downgrade?
The rating agencies provided three main reasons:
1. The government is too indebted: It is expected that by 2035, the U.S. debt will reach 134% of the national annual GDP (currently it is already 98%).

The US GDP seems bad, but is actually stable:
- Surface: -0.3% (technical negative growth, mainly due to tariff disturbances in inventory).
- Core: domestic demand +3% (strong consumption, no substantial economic recession).
Market response:
- After a brief pullback, the rebound shows that investors believe in 'false bad news', with focus shifting to Friday's non-farm payroll.
Bitcoin:
- On-chain health: main cost 93,000-98,000, low turnover rate (little selling pressure).
Key variables:
1. Will Trump's tariffs escalate.
2. Non-farm payroll data (if employment ≥ 200,000, risk assets continue to rise).
In a nutshell: as long as the economy doesn’t collapse, the market won’t panic, keep a close eye on Bitcoin support levels.

At 20:30 Beijing time on Wednesday, the US Q1 GDP will be released, with market expectations dropping from 0.4% to 0.3%. The height of this number will directly affect market sentiment, with several possible scenarios:
1. Super bullish (≥2.4%)
- Result: GDP ≥ 2.4% (same as last year's fourth quarter)
- Impact: No recession risk at all, the market is in euphoria.
- Probability: Basically impossible; current expectations are even below zero.
2. Clearly bullish (1%~2.4%)
- Result: GDP is above 1%
- Impact: Slow economic growth, high hopes for a soft landing, low inflation pressure, the stock market will breathe a sigh of relief.

(Arizona Bitcoin Reserve Bill) passed by the legislature, will become the first state in the U.S. to establish a Bitcoin reserve.

Bill SB 1373 proposes the establishment of a digital asset strategic reserve fund managed by the state treasurer, with funding sources including seized assets and legislative appropriations, allowing up to 10% to be invested in Bitcoin and other digital assets each fiscal year, and allowing borrowing without increasing risks. Bill SB 1025 permits the state treasury and pension systems to invest up to 10% of available funds in virtual currencies, with a focus on Bitcoin. The bill summary states, 'This bill represents an emerging practice by the state government to incorporate cryptocurrency into public financial management, reflecting the growing mainstream recognition of digital assets.'

Financial battlefield: How to tame the inner demons to become a trading master?
First mental barrier: Comparison mentality
Symptoms: Getting envious when seeing others profit, itching to act when hearing about coins that skyrocket
Antidote: Treat the market as a single-player game
Imagine you are playing an RPG game that belongs only to you:
- Yesterday you were a level 1 novice
- Today you are accumulating experience points
- Tomorrow you will level up your equipment
Your opponent is never other players, but your own greed and fear. Just like leveling up in a game, focus on your own growth curve. Someone else got a rare item? That has nothing to do with you, stick to grinding your own dungeon.

1. First, let's look at three true stories
1. Lao Zhang's Sichuan restaurant (investment)
Lao Zhang opened a Sichuan restaurant in a village in Shenzhen:
- Spent three months eating at 50 competing restaurants, sending chefs to Chongqing for training
- Record customer traffic daily, adjust the menu based on takeaway data
- Even during the pandemic, survived the winter relying on old customers' recharge cards
- Started making profits in the third year, now preparing to open a branch
This is investing: like planting a fruit tree, it requires watering and fertilizing (putting in effort) and waiting for it to bear fruit (value growth). The key is to create cash flow.
2. Lao Wang's shoe trading business (speculation)

Key events to watch in the crypto market over the next few weeks.
The recent trend of the crypto market is dominated by external factors, especially macroeconomic conditions, policies, and U.S. stock performance. The following are key events in the coming weeks that could impact the market, analyzed in three parts:
I. Macroeconomic data (focus on the U.S.)
1. March PCE data (April 30)
- The inflation indicator most valued by the Federal Reserve; if core PCE exceeds expectations, it may strengthen rate hike expectations, negatively impacting the market; conversely, it could alleviate pressure.
2. April non-farm employment data (May 2)
- Reflects the initial impact of Trump's tariff policy. Strong employment may boost the dollar, while weak data could exacerbate market volatility. Current expectations are conservative.

[In-depth Interpretation] Trump's Policy 'U-Turn' Ignites Global Markets: Key Signals and Investment Logic Explained in One Article
One, Three Major Concessions Release Heavy Signals
During the early hours in Beijing, the Trump team released three policy adjustment messages consecutively, directly triggering a violent rebound in US stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other risk assets:
1. Trade War Eases (00:00)
• Treasury Secretary Yellen Clearly States: "The Trade War with China Is Unsustainable"
• Key Phrase: "Expect to See Substantial Easing Measures in the Coming Weeks"
• Market Interpretation: The Trade Barriers Lasting for Six Years May Begin to Be Dismantled