加密交易笔记

1. Interpretation of Core Market Data
1. ETF Capital Inflows: Institutions are continuously increasing positions, and Ethereum is becoming the new favorite.
- Bitcoin Spot ETF: Last week saw a net inflow of $2.39 billion, indicating that institutions are still increasing their allocation to Bitcoin, but the growth rate may slow down (previously single-week inflows exceeded $3 billion).
- Ethereum Spot ETF: Net inflow of $2.18 billion in a single week (a historical high), far exceeding market expectations, indicating that institutional funds are accelerating their inflow into ETH, which may drive it into an independent rising cycle.
- Key Conclusion:
- Bitcoin is still the first choice for institutions, but the demand for Ethereum allocation is rising rapidly.

This week's focus:
Monday: Coinbase will launch its US Perpetual-Style contracts on July 21, aiming to mimic global perpetual contract functions while adhering to US regulatory standards. Coinbase will launch two contracts on July 21: Nano Bitcoin Perpetual Futures (0.01 BTC) and Nano Ethereum Perpetual Futures (0.10 ETH).
Tuesday: The White House Digital Asset Market Working Group is expected to release its first cryptocurrency policy report on July 22, covering regulatory and legislative recommendations, possibly involving the establishment of a national digital asset reserve and ensuring fair access for cryptocurrency companies to banking services. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak at a regulatory capital framework meeting at 20:30 Beijing time on July 22.

One, why has ETH suddenly surged recently?
1. Institutions playing capital games:
- Companies like SharpLink are buying ETH at low prices first
- Then they frantically promote, 'We are going to buy billions of ETH'
- In reality, only a small amount was bought, but the market believed it and started following the trend
- After ETH rises in price, they use the appreciated ETH to borrow more money, continuing to inflate the bubble
2. ETF funds are entering the market:
- The Ethereum ETF has just been approved in the U.S.
- Recently, large funds have been flowing in every day (up to over 700 million USD in one day)
- Traditional institutions are starting to allocate ETH
3. Market sentiment changes:
- People who previously criticized ETH are now shouting 'Charge, charge, charge!'

All analysis of the timing and trading opportunities for altcoin surges
#山寨季何时到来？ What is altcoin season?
Altcoin season refers to a period in the cryptocurrency market when a large number of altcoins (digital currencies other than Bitcoin) see collective price surges. Based on my observations, a genuine altcoin season needs to meet the following conditions:
1. Most altcoins have broken through last year's March price highs
2. Some strong altcoins have broken through their all-time highs from 2021
3. Ethereum (ETH) breaks through 4800 USD
4. SOL coin breaks through 300 USD
Current market status analysis
The market is still in the 'Bitcoin dominance' phase:
- Capital flows into Bitcoin → Bitcoin's market cap share rises → Altcoins are drained and decline

#美国众议院通过三项加密货币法案 How significant is the impact?
Early this morning, the U.S. House of Representatives passed three key cryptocurrency bills aimed at regulating industry operations, clarifying regulatory responsibilities, and limiting excessive government intervention. Here are the core content analyses:
1. (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) (CLARITY Act)
- Core objective: Resolve the regulatory power dispute between the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) and the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) and clarify which cryptocurrencies are classified as securities and which are classified as commodities.
- Impact:
- Reduce speculation in the industry about 'whether a certain token is illegal' and provide a clearer compliance path.

Bitcoin has broken records again! It shot straight up to $116,868!
Even more intense is that a bunch of altcoins are also taking off, with daily gains of over 10% being common.
After a year of bearish calls, why does Bitcoin keep rising despite being slapped in the face?
At the beginning of the year, many people were bearish, saying 'the bear market has arrived,' but Bitcoin proved with strength: you are still you!
In fact, since last year, Bitcoin has been playing a game of 'wealth relocation': early whales are slowly retreating, while institutions and large players are quietly taking over. In the short term, whale sell-offs will suppress prices, but as long as new players continue to buy in, there’s still potential in the medium to long term. However... the worst off may be retail investors, as institutions fighting can easily misfire on small investors.

The market rebounded slightly, mainly because the Trump administration unexpectedly postponed the "TACO" tariff policy originally set to take effect on July 9, delaying it until August 1. This unexpected move relieved the market; let's analyze the potential reasons behind it:
First, let's look at the progress of trade negotiations:
1. Negotiations on the EU side are progressing smoothly, with both parties sending positive signals.
2. The trade agreements between the United States and Canada, Mexico are also relatively stable.
3. China may be the biggest variable; currently, it is neither on the 14-country tariff list nor has any relevant documents been made public, indicating that Sino-US negotiations may still be ongoing.

# The impact of the new US tariff policy on the global market, the direction of Federal Reserve policy is key.
Recently, news of the US significantly raising tariffs has caused market upheaval. According to the latest revealed information, the average tariff in the US in 2024 is only **2.5%**, but the new policy may impose a **10%** basic tariff on some countries, and with additional taxes, the **minimum tax rate may reach 20%**—equivalent to **8 times** the current level.
1. Japan and South Korea are the first to be hit, but there is room for negotiation.
The US has imposed **25%** tariffs on Japan and South Korea, slightly higher than expected by 5%, but not extreme. It is worth noting that there is still room for policy adjustment - if these countries are willing to further open their markets to the US or lower tariffs, the US may adjust tax rates accordingly. It is expected that **15%** could be the US's bottom line, but adjustments may be gradual, such as first lowering to **20%**, then gradually decreasing.

一、现货溢价是什么？
简单说：就是「现货价格 - 期货价格」的差值。
- 正溢价（现货＞期货）：现货市场更强势
- 负溢价（现货＜期货）：期货市场更强势
（注：实际计算会加权处理，避免单一交易所数据失真）
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二、四种核心场景解析
场景1️⃣：**价格上涨 + 溢价上升**
✅ 信号：机构真金白银买现货，散户期货做空对抗
🔥 结果：空头是燃料，价格易继续涨
👉 例子：BTC从3万→4万，溢价从0.1%→0.5%，说明机构吃货，空头被轧
场景2️⃣：**价格上涨 + 溢价下降**
⚠️ 信号：只有期货多头在嗨，现货机构没参与
💣 风险：纯散户杠杆推动，空头死光时涨势终结
👉 例子：BTC反弹10%，但溢价从0.3%→0%，可能是合约赌狗在FOMO
场景3️⃣：**价格下跌 + 溢价下降**
❗ 信号：机构在砸盘现货，散户期货抄底
🩸 危险：现货抛压未止，期货多头接飞刀
👉 例子：BTC从6万→5万，溢价从0%→-1%，大户在出货，别急着抄底
场景4️⃣：**价格下跌 + 溢价上升**
🔍 关键转折：
- 第一阶段：现货抛售结束，期货空头肆虐
- 第二阶段：溢价突然反弹，说明要么空头平仓，要么现货买家进场
🎯 观察点：若价格止跌+溢价持续回升，可能是底部信号
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三、为什么这套逻辑有效？
1. 谁在主导：
- 现货市场 = 机构/大户（用真钱买币）
- 期货市场 = 散户（用杠杆赌方向）
2. 价格锚定：
- 期货价格最终要向现货价格靠拢（到期交割机制）
- 散户情绪容易过度，但大资金决定长期趋势
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四、实战应用技巧
- 看涨机会：价格涨+溢价涨 → 跟机构上车
- 警惕风险：价格涨+溢价跌 → 警惕杠杆泡沫
- 抄底时机：价格跌+溢价触底反弹 → 关注现货买盘
- 避坑指南：价格跌+溢价跌 → 别接下跌刀子
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五、注意事项
- 例外情况：极端行情（如交易所暴雷）可能打破规律
- 辅助工具：结合成交量、资金费率综合判断
记住这个核心：**现货溢价是机构与散户的博弈温度计**，谁在主导市场，指标会告诉你真相！
BTC
跟随日报110400位置仓位还在盈利持仓中，移动止损！反弹向下思路！震荡无聊行情！关注图中位置的交易机会！

ETH
2644位置差点插针给到！可惜了！反弹向下思路！同样关注图中位置的交易机会！

SOL
156-158的仓位盈利中，移动止损！当前反弹向下，关注图中位置的交易机会！

内容中涉及的信息及数据来源于公开可获得的资料，力求精准可靠，但不对信息的准确性及完整性做保证。内容不构成任何投资建议，据此投资，责任自负！

On Musk and Trump's relationship:
1. Musk and Trump’s arguments never last more than 24 hours, and this time is no exception. Musk gave in first again.
2. This is not something Musk can decide alone - Tesla shareholders, SpaceX financing, and Starlink's international business are all forcing him to bow his head.
3. The two are actually restraining each other, and each needs time to consolidate his position. There are no eternal enemies in politics, and there may be cooperation in the future.
Regarding tariffs:
- Next Thursday (Beijing time) is the deadline for reciprocal tariffs, and the market reaction is worth paying attention to.

The biggest enemy of trading is never the market, but the ambiguity of your cognition. It is like groping in the dark, you never know what you will step on next.
1. The fatal mistake of 90% of traders
Most people turn trading into a "technical patchwork": learn a little about MACD golden cross, memorize a few sentences of wave theory, and try a few breakthrough tactics. This patchwork learning is like assembling a car with different engine parts - it looks complete, but it will never start.
Real trading masters are all "system engineers": they use the first principles to build a trading framework, just like understanding the principles of internal combustion engines before building a car. This principle is the positive expected value system.

1. The fatal dilemma of retail investors: Why do they always buy high and sell low?
Have you noticed a curse:
- Stocks fall when bought, and rise when sold.
- Just made 5% and rushed to run, but stuck with a 20% loss and stubbornly held on.
- Rush in to buy when there is good news, cut losses at the floor price when there is bad news.
This is not bad luck! Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman revealed the truth with "Prospect Theory": **Retail investors are not competing with the market; they are battling human nature**.
2. Three psychologically devastating traps (with cracking secrets)
Trap 1: Cutting losses is like cutting a kidney; stubbornly holding on is like martyrdom (Loss Aversion Law)

Build a trading system that can steadily make money, just like equipping yourself with a handy toolbox. The key is not that having more tools is better, but that each tool is easy to use and fits well together. Here are six essential 'tools':
First tool: GPS (trading positioning)
- First, think clearly about what kind of car you want to drive: Is it a sports car for quick trades (intraday trading), a fuel-efficient family car (swing trading), or a long-haul freight truck (long-term investment)
- Determine route preferences: Do you prefer to travel on flat provincial roads (volatile market) or highways (trending market)

1. 中东局势缓和——利好比特币上涨
- 以色列和哈马斯进入脆弱的停火阶段，双方暂时停火。
- 市场认为霍尔木兹海峡（全球石油运输关键通道）不会被封锁，石油供应不受影响。
- 地缘风险降低，投资者避险情绪减弱，资金更愿意买入比特币等风险资产。
2. 美联储政策——降息预期推迟，但影响有限
- 鲍威尔（美联储主席）表态：目前不降息，主要因为关税推高了通胀。
- 7月降息基本没戏，9月可能成为第一个降息时间窗口。
- 美国经济仍强，就业市场健康，美联储不急着降息救经济。
总结市场态度：
- 只要中东停火不破裂，油价不暴涨，比特币短期走势偏乐观。
- 但地缘政治像“不定时炸弹”，万一冲突再起，市场可能突然波动，需保持警惕。
（用一句话概括：**中东停火+美联储不捣乱=比特币小涨，但别掉以轻心**）
BTC
日报给到的日线反弹目标触达！106700-108950关注派发机会！短期支撑12500附近！

ETH
以太的反弹目标也即将触达！2540-2570关注派发机会！短期支撑2313附近！

SOL
130附近抄底的仓位，可以在150-158减仓！同时关注这里的派发机会！短期支撑137-133！

内容中涉及的信息及数据来源于公开可获得的资料，力求精准可靠，但不对信息的准确性及完整性做保证。内容不构成任何投资建议，据此投资，责任自负！

One, current market situation.
1. The direct cause of this round of plummet is the escalation of the Middle East conflict (Israel bombed Iran's nuclear facilities), resulting in 500,000 long positions being blown in 24 hours.
2. Altcoins are also plummeting, mainly due to a lack of money in the market (trading volume is at a 4-year low).
Two, will it get worse?
In the short term (within a week), it may stabilize for the following reasons:
1. The Middle East conflict is 'a performance': the U.S. has preemptively leaked information, and Iran is also cooperating in this 'performance', as both sides do not want to actually fight.
2. Iran says it will block the oil strait (Hormuz), but it is difficult to execute in reality (it would trigger global inflation).
3. On-chain data: 98% of positions are already in loss, further declines are not very meaningful.

Everyone is paying close attention to the recent Bitcoin market. Let me briefly share my views:
1. About the current market stage
- If we count the bull market starting point from January 2023, it has been 890 days now
- If we count from October 2023 when Bitcoin broke through its previous high, it will be 595 days
- The current trend is somewhat similar to that of 2021, and there are two possible directions in the future:
a) First pull back to 95,000, then pull up to 150,000+
b) Directly break through the new high and then peak
- The most optimistic forecast is that it will reach 200,000 by the end of the year, but no one can predict for sure
2. Advice for ordinary investors
(1) Don’t always think about selling at the highest point
- The bull market will always end, the important thing is to stop profit in time

(GENIUS Act) has been passed in the Senate
The Senate has passed the bipartisan supported (GENIUS Act), marking a key step towards consolidating the dollar's dominance. I look forward to working with my colleagues to develop comprehensive market structure legislation to protect consumer rights and ensure America's status as the world's cryptocurrency capital.

Sun Yuchen has once again become the focus, this time he returns to the public eye with TRON's new plan. The latest news shows that TRON will achieve a shell listing through the reverse acquisition of the listed company SRM Entertainment. There are several points worth noting about this operation:

1. How does the Middle East conflict affect cryptocurrency?
Recent Israeli airstrikes on Iran (June 13) triggered market fluctuations:
- Bitcoin dropped from a high of $105,000
- Ethereum dropped from $2800 to $2500
Interesting market phenomenon:
- When retail investors panic and sell
- Large institutions are quietly bottom-fishing (for example, BlackRock bought 220,000 ETH in a month)
Historical comparison:
There have been two similar conflicts in 2024:
1. April: Israel bombed the Iranian consulate → Iran retaliated with 320 missiles → Both sides declared victory
2. October: Iran launched 200 missiles → Israel retaliated → Both declared victory

One, The Impact of War on the Market
1. The Israel-Iran conflict has indeed triggered market panic, leading to 1.2 billion dollars in contracts being liquidated
2. But the fundamental reason for the decline is still the market itself needing adjustment; the war just accelerated this process
3. It's like a balloon that has been inflated too much; the war is just the needle that pops it
Two, Current Situation of Bitcoin
1. At the beginning of this week, many thought there would be a big rise, but the daily resistance is at 110,000 dollars
2. On Tuesday, it rose to this point and then couldn't move up, showing obvious fatigue; the Wednesday report 今晚CPI数据能否阻断新高？ indicates two scenarios for Bitcoin!

Bloomberg's James on the probability of cryptocurrency spot ETF approval in 2025:

Analysis of cryptocurrency ETF approval probability (classified by regulatory progress and market factors)
# 🥇 Stable Winning Group (90% approval probability)
- Litecoin (LTC)
✅ Clearly classified as a commodity by CFTC
✅ Has futures market support, high regulatory recognition
- Solana (SOL)
✅ Strong institutional demand, ample secondary market liquidity
✅ Regulatory attitude is becoming clearer
# 🥈 High Potential Group (80-85% approval probability)
- XRP
✅ The court ruled that its secondary market trading does not constitute securities