Bloomberg's James on the probability of cryptocurrency spot ETF approval in 2025:

Analysis of cryptocurrency ETF approval probability (classified by regulatory progress and market factors)

# 🥇 Stable Winning Group (90% approval probability)

- Litecoin (LTC)

✅ Clearly classified as a commodity by CFTC

✅ Has futures market support, high regulatory recognition

- Solana (SOL)

✅ Strong institutional demand, ample secondary market liquidity

✅ Regulatory attitude is becoming clearer

# 🥈 High Potential Group (80-85% approval probability)

- XRP

✅ The court ruled that its secondary market trading does not constitute securities

✅ Regulatory obstacles have significantly reduced, compliance path is clear

- Dogecoin (DOGE)

✅ Strong community consensus and wide liquidity

✅ Highly decentralized, complies with commodity characteristics

# 🟡 Moderate Probability Group (75% approval probability)

- Cardano (ADA), Polkadot (DOT), Avalanche (AVAX)

⚠️ Has not yet received CFTC futures support, liquidity is limited

⚠️ SEC still questions its degree of decentralization

# 🟠 Low Probability Group (60% and below)

- SUI

❌ Not clearly classified as a commodity, regulatory position is ambiguous

❌ Insufficient institutional support and market depth

- TRX

❌ Approval cycle extended to 2026, time window does not match 2025 ETF expectations

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# Summary of Key Favorable Factors

1️⃣ SEC has accepted all 19b-4 applications --- the process has officially started

2️⃣ Most projects are inclined to be viewed as commodities by SEC --- non-securities classification reduces compliance risk

3️⃣ CFTC futures support is a key indicator --- the approval probability of existing futures contract currencies is significantly increased

BTC

H1 has formed a pullback low after a day of observation, so the next two scenarios:

1. After upwardly seizing liquidity above 110718, M15 shows distribution structure, entering downward position, stop loss on breaking new highs!

2. 108330 H1 entity broke down, forming structural damage, enter downward position on rebound! Stop loss near H1 previous high!

Downward target 106800, 105700-105300! At the same time, pay attention to the rebound opportunity when first reaching 105700-105300!

ETH

Ethereum has reached new highs, but is still accompanied by a triple top divergence at H1 level. Unless it strongly stands above 2857! So currently it is still in an upward channel at H4, just touched the upper edge of the channel, so this momentum still has a chance to be volatile again! If there are positions to enter downward near the upper edge of the channel, the target can first look at 2680-2655, and if it breaks, watch around 2610 mid-line! The first touch of these two positions also has a rebound opportunity!

SOL

164 breakthrough, a pullback to 159-156 can seize some opportunity, target 171-175, stop loss below 156!

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