1. How does the Middle East conflict affect cryptocurrency?
Recent Israeli airstrikes on Iran (June 13) triggered market fluctuations:
- Bitcoin dropped from a high of $105,000
- Ethereum dropped from $2800 to $2500
Interesting market phenomenon:
- When retail investors panic and sell
- Large institutions are quietly bottom-fishing (for example, BlackRock bought 220,000 ETH in a month)
Historical comparison:
There have been two similar conflicts in 2024:
1. April: Israel bombed the Iranian consulate → Iran retaliated with 320 missiles → Both sides declared victory
2. October: Iran launched 200 missiles → Israel retaliated → Both declared victory
Key judgment:
- The possibility of a full-scale war is very low (nuclear war is even more alarmist)
- But short-term market volatility is inevitable
2. Is there still an opportunity for altcoins?
Current market status
- Ethereum failed to break through the key price level of 2857
- Altcoins are collectively underperforming
- But historical data (Altcoin Season Index) shows:
- When the index is in the 15-20 range
- Often a precursor to a surge in altcoins
Operational suggestions
1. Basic premise:
- Bitcoin needs to stabilize above $100,000
- No new major black swan events
2. Investment strategy:
- Simple: Maintain a clear investment logic
- Calm: Not swayed by emotions
- Data-driven: Focus on indicators like ETH/BTC exchange rate
3. Risk warning:
- Altcoins may suddenly surge (double in 1-2 weeks)
- But it can drop more fiercely (potentially falling by 90%)
- Key selection: Projects with real ecosystems
- Avoid: Blindly following trends, holding onto junk coins for the long term
Important reminder:
The primary goal in the second half of the year is to protect profits and avoid excessive risks!
3. Cryptocurrency is being 'legalized'
Two key acts
1. (GENIUS Act): Regulate stablecoins
2. (CLARITY Act): Clarify whether cryptocurrency is a commodity or a security
- Likely to pass during Trump's term
Industry milestone
Circle company listing (issuer of USDC):
- Listing price $31 → Now $133 (tripled)
- More significant than Coinbase's listing:
- Signifies that stablecoins are moving towards the mainstream
- Promotes the legalization of the entire industry
Latest progress on ETF
- Ethereum ETF: May increase staking functionality (Q3/Q4)
- Solana ETF: Probability of passing is as high as 90%
- Regulatory breakthrough: SEC has clearly stated that staking does not count as securities trading (May 29)
4. Explosive growth of stablecoins
Stunning data:
- Total market value: $250 billion
- One-year growth: $89 billion
- Prediction: Could reach $1 trillion within 4-5 years
Current issue:
After a large amount of funds entered stablecoins, there was no continued inflow into other cryptocurrencies
5. Advice for investors
Market trend
- Regulation will become increasingly strict
- Institutional participation is increasing
- Retail investors face increasing difficulty in making profits
- This could be the last chance for 'frenzied growth'
Operational suggestions
1. Short term: Pay attention to potential opportunities in the coming months
2. Long term: View industry development from a more macro perspective
3. Special attention:
- Don't easily believe in 'get rich quick myths'
- Scammers are often most active when the market is lukewarm
Summary:
Cryptocurrency is undergoing a transformation from 'wild growth' to 'regular army'; although opportunities still exist, the rules of the game have changed. Maintain rationality, focus on value, and control risk to continue benefiting in this new era.
BTC
Watch the closing price tomorrow morning at 8:00 AM. If it can close above 106500, the probability of reaching 107700-108450 is high! Otherwise, the probability of a downward move is high; pay attention to the two support areas in the chart! Stop loss below 100,000!
ETH
Short-term pressure at 2570-2605, if it stands above 2605, then watch the middle track around 2658! Otherwise, wait for the test of the channel's lower bound at 2428-2381! Effective stop loss below 2381!
SOL
Yesterday's daily report provided accurate entry at 143-140! Currently in profit, set a good stop-loss, targeting testing at 153-154, can reduce positions near 151! Keep an eye on the pullback to 145-144!
The information and data involved in the content are sourced from publicly available materials, striving for accuracy and reliability, but no guarantees are made regarding the accuracy and completeness of the information. The content does not constitute any investment advice; investing based on it is at your own risk!
