All analysis of the timing and trading opportunities for altcoin surges
#山寨季何时到来？ What is altcoin season?
Altcoin season refers to a period in the cryptocurrency market when a large number of altcoins (digital currencies other than Bitcoin) see collective price surges. Based on my observations, a genuine altcoin season needs to meet the following conditions:
1. Most altcoins have broken through last year's March price highs
2. Some strong altcoins have broken through their all-time highs from 2021
3. Ethereum (ETH) breaks through 4800 USD
4. SOL coin breaks through 300 USD
Current market status analysis
The market is still in the 'Bitcoin dominance' phase:
- Capital flows into Bitcoin → Bitcoin's market cap share rises → Altcoins are drained and decline
- Capital flows out of Bitcoin → Bitcoin's share decreases → Altcoins start to attract investment and surge
From a sentiment perspective, we are still in a bear market mentality:
- Investors generally only want to break even, without frantically chasing highs
- The true end of a bull market will see a crazy phenomenon of everyone borrowing to speculate on coins
- Currently far from such an irrational state
How to determine when altcoin season is coming?
Here are 4 key indicators:
1. Altcoin season index: If 75% of the top 50 altcoins outperform Bitcoin within 90 days, it is altcoin season
→ [View Link](https://blockchaincenter.net/altcoin-season-index/)
2. Bitcoin dominance: the proportion of Bitcoin's market cap in the entire cryptocurrency market
→ [View Chart](https://cn.tradingview.com/symbols/BTC.D/)
3. Total market cap of altcoins (TOTAL2): The total market cap of the top 125 altcoins excluding Bitcoin
→ [View Data](https://tradingview.com/symbols/TOTAL2/)
4. ETH/BTC exchange rate: capital flows usually follow this order: Bitcoin → Ethereum/SOL → mainstream altcoins → secondary mainstream altcoins → Meme coins
How to choose potential altcoins?
1. Project fundamentals:
- The project is still operational, and the code is continuously updated
- Social media remains active
- Communities (Telegram/Discord) have administrators maintaining them
- Institutional funds are likely already involved
2. Market Cap Selection:
- Prioritize considering the top 50 altcoins by market cap
- This round of market conditions will not surge comprehensively like in 2021; only quality projects will stand out
3. Outbreak characteristics:
- Once it starts, it can surge 3-5 times in 7 days or even 1 day
- May complete years of accumulated gains within a month
- The bull market process of altcoins may be much faster than Bitcoin
Investment Advice
1. Look for high cost-performance entry points and set stop-losses
2. Whether it can create new highs requires luck; don't go all in
3. Beware of market sentiment: greed, fear, and herd mentality are the biggest enemies
4. Remember: the cryptocurrency market is always a place where a minority makes money
The most dangerous behavior in a bull market:
❌ Blindly chasing highs and selling lows
❌ Going with the flow without personal judgment
❌ Borrowing or misusing essential funds for investment
❌ Overconfidence without stop-loss
Stay rational, do your research, and you'll be able to seize opportunities when altcoin season arrives!
BTC
Yesterday I mentioned the upper range of 120500 was rejected, currently waiting for a test of the lower range, 116000-115222! This area has touched for the first time and there is a rebound demand; be sure to set stop-loss! The current rebound is 119145-119530 but continues downward! If it breaks below 115222, continue to look at 113700-113000, 111000-110500! These two positions have also touched for the first time and similarly have rebound demand!
ETH
Yesterday I indicated 3576, M15 broke the small level structure and produced a downward move; the current rebound is 3608-3657 but looking for a pullback target at 3420-3390, where there will be rebound demand upon first touch, maintain a solid long position, consider 3350-3310!
SOL
Waiting for a pullback opportunity to 171-168! The target is first to look at 181 to reduce positions, then 185-187!
The information and data involved are sourced from publicly available materials, striving for accuracy and reliability, but no guarantee is made regarding the accuracy and completeness of the information. The content does not constitute any investment advice, and any investment based on this is at your own risk!
