On Musk and Trump's relationship:

1. Musk and Trump’s arguments never last more than 24 hours, and this time is no exception. Musk gave in first again.

2. This is not something Musk can decide alone - Tesla shareholders, SpaceX financing, and Starlink's international business are all forcing him to bow his head.

3. The two are actually restraining each other, and each needs time to consolidate his position. There are no eternal enemies in politics, and there may be cooperation in the future.

Regarding tariffs:

- Next Thursday (Beijing time) is the deadline for reciprocal tariffs, and the market reaction is worth paying attention to.

Regarding US economic data:

1. ADP employment data is a surprise: Private sector employment fell by 33,000 in March, the first negative value since the outbreak in 2020.

- This indicates that enterprises are beginning to shrink in size and the economy is cooling down significantly.

- But the data for a single month cannot be conclusive, and we still need to look at the unemployment rate data today, Thursday.

2. The key is to look at the trend: If employment data declines for several consecutive months and the unemployment rate rises, it can be confirmed that there is a problem with the US economy.

- This is also why Trump is eager to pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

Market reaction analysis:

- Risk assets rose today because "bad news turned into good news" - the poor ADP data made the market bet that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates faster to save the economy.

- But please note: Current CME data shows that the probability of not cutting interest rates in July has only dropped by 4%, and no interest rate cut is still the mainstream expectation.

BTC

V reverse plunder, 107800 pressure turns into support! Yesterday's short position at this position may be damaged! Trading is like this! It is more important to stick to your trading discipline than to be lucky! In the current market, it is better to avoid trading in the middle of the range, as the probability of being washed out is the highest!

If the current 107800 level is not broken, there is still room for plundering upwards! 109650-110400! If it falls below, the plundering will be completed, and 105200-104600 will be tested again!

ETH

Review: The lower edge of the range has not been broken, it is just a pin plunder. Be cautious in placing short orders in the middle of the range! It is easier to be washed! The short-term support is 2525-2495. If it is not broken, there is still a chance to plunder at 2644-2680! If it falls below, it will complete the luring and plundering, and test 2413-2370 again!

SUN

At H4 level, we should still pay attention to the rejection distribution opportunities at 156-158! The target below is 142-137!

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