Realistic Analyst
Open Trade
High-Frequency Trader
5.6 Years
1 Following
99 Followers
57 Liked
13 Shared
May Prediction pathway for $BTC
● 97,450 - 98,500
● pullback to 83,500 - 86,000 (2 times pullback, could hit this range, going up, and hit this range again)
● On The way to new ATH
● New ATH (July - August)
● Deep correction
check my previous post on end of March for April Prediction.
This is not a financial advice, manage your own risk while trading.
#TrumptaxCuts #TariffPause #BTC
● 97,450 - 98,500
● pullback to 83,500 - 86,000 (2 times pullback, could hit this range, going up, and hit this range again)
● On The way to new ATH
● New ATH (July - August)
● Deep correction
check my previous post on end of March for April Prediction.
This is not a financial advice, manage your own risk while trading.
#TrumptaxCuts #TariffPause #BTC
Are you ready for what's comming next??
$BTC
2025 Scenario :
w1 - w3 April will start with a pullback (predicted around 72.600 - 78.500)
Then launch off and close the monthly candle Green.
New High will be around July or August and not really far of the current High (predicted around 116.500 - 119.000) then a deep correction occur with shorter length than previous cycle.
The macros and news will compliment to put narrative to this scenario.
This is not a financial advice, manage your own risk while trading.
#MarketPullback
2025 Scenario :
w1 - w3 April will start with a pullback (predicted around 72.600 - 78.500)
Then launch off and close the monthly candle Green.
New High will be around July or August and not really far of the current High (predicted around 116.500 - 119.000) then a deep correction occur with shorter length than previous cycle.
The macros and news will compliment to put narrative to this scenario.
This is not a financial advice, manage your own risk while trading.
#MarketPullback
your margin is 16.4 with 10x leverage, liquidation --- means : you have more than 164 USDT in your futures wallet, therefore you can't be liquidated. it's just like buying at spot.
$BTC Why doesn't #Binance show my liquidation price?? Has it happened to you?
$BTC
beware of second batch trap, while trying to hit new shorts entry SL at around 82,850 to 83k area before taking another dip.
I've given early warning before the trap to 82,700 happen, and also before this new low breaking below 81,278. you can check my previous post.
#TrumpTariffs
#BTC
#noFOMO
beware of second batch trap, while trying to hit new shorts entry SL at around 82,850 to 83k area before taking another dip.
I've given early warning before the trap to 82,700 happen, and also before this new low breaking below 81,278. you can check my previous post.
#TrumpTariffs
#BTC
#noFOMO
Beware of buying this dip.
$BTC
Now that the maker have set people's expectation of dump and pump.
it will lure people to think BTC will do this again and it's time to make easy money by long, then they will crush to new lows liquidating people.
let's see if this play out today.
#BTC #TrumpTariffs
Now that the maker have set people's expectation of dump and pump.
it will lure people to think BTC will do this again and it's time to make easy money by long, then they will crush to new lows liquidating people.
let's see if this play out today.
#BTC #TrumpTariffs
$BTC
Now that the maker have set people's expectation of dump and pump.
it will lure people to think BTC will do this again and it's time to make easy money by long, then they will crush to new lows liquidating people.
let's see if this play out today.
#BTC #TrumpTariffs
Now that the maker have set people's expectation of dump and pump.
it will lure people to think BTC will do this again and it's time to make easy money by long, then they will crush to new lows liquidating people.
let's see if this play out today.
#BTC #TrumpTariffs
$BTC
3 to 4 days ahead will go lower low than 81,278.52 (This week's low) , then supercharge to new ATH.
still the same scenario as last post.
3 to 4 days ahead will go lower low than 81,278.52 (This week's low) , then supercharge to new ATH.
still the same scenario as last post.
$BTC
2025 Scenario :
w1 - w3 April will start with a pullback (predicted around 72.600 - 78.500)
Then launch off and close the monthly candle Green.
New High will be around July or August and not really far of the current High (predicted around 116.500 - 119.000) then a deep correction occur with shorter length than previous cycle.
The macros and news will compliment to put narrative to this scenario.
This is not a financial advice, manage your own risk while trading.
#MarketPullback
2025 Scenario :
w1 - w3 April will start with a pullback (predicted around 72.600 - 78.500)
Then launch off and close the monthly candle Green.
New High will be around July or August and not really far of the current High (predicted around 116.500 - 119.000) then a deep correction occur with shorter length than previous cycle.
The macros and news will compliment to put narrative to this scenario.
This is not a financial advice, manage your own risk while trading.
#MarketPullback
BTC chance of going back below 81k
Probability of Bitcoin Dropping Below $81,000
(Based on latest technicals, ETF flows, and macro context)
$BTC
1. Next 1 Day
Probability: 35–40%
Rationale:
● Price Action: Current price (84,280) faces resistance near 85,000 (recent highs). A rejection here could trigger profit-taking toward $82,000–81,000.
Technical Signals:
● 1-Day RSI(7): 50 (neutral) – No overbought/oversold signal, but weak bullish momentum.
● Recent volatility: Price swing from 84,756→81,134 (17-Mar) shows susceptibility t
(Based on latest technicals, ETF flows, and macro context)
$BTC
1. Next 1 Day
Probability: 35–40%
Rationale:
● Price Action: Current price (84,280) faces resistance near 85,000 (recent highs). A rejection here could trigger profit-taking toward $82,000–81,000.
Technical Signals:
● 1-Day RSI(7): 50 (neutral) – No overbought/oversold signal, but weak bullish momentum.
● Recent volatility: Price swing from 84,756→81,134 (17-Mar) shows susceptibility t
$BTC
Since the market is overly confidence pre-FOMC, I think there will be a twist later on.
Be fearful when others are greedy!
#FOMC #ReversalAlert
Since the market is overly confidence pre-FOMC, I think there will be a twist later on.
Be fearful when others are greedy!
#FOMC #ReversalAlert
$BTC Keep making Lower High and Lower Low
Yet soo many people still think it's not Bearish.
SMH
By analyzing Macros, cycle, and indicators, there is a good chance of Bull step in on April and gain control on May.
Yet soo many people still think it's not Bearish.
SMH
By analyzing Macros, cycle, and indicators, there is a good chance of Bull step in on April and gain control on May.
$BTC
I keep to the principal of sell on good news.
Anyway even if the U.S. is buying BTC for reserve, it won't be directly at market but will be with Tender Over to not disrupt the market.
My advice is don't go FOMO and go all in.
Manage your own risk and just do DCA.
If you are unfamiliar with DCA, you can google it "Dollar Cost Averaging"
Also only use cold money to invest.
What's considered as Hot Money?
Imagine if you buy BTC using the money that you will need next month to pay for rent, or to pay for your kids tuition.
Then when it's almost due, your position is at loss.
This is one of the main reason of "Buy High Sell Low".
I keep to the principal of sell on good news.
Anyway even if the U.S. is buying BTC for reserve, it won't be directly at market but will be with Tender Over to not disrupt the market.
My advice is don't go FOMO and go all in.
Manage your own risk and just do DCA.
If you are unfamiliar with DCA, you can google it "Dollar Cost Averaging"
Also only use cold money to invest.
What's considered as Hot Money?
Imagine if you buy BTC using the money that you will need next month to pay for rent, or to pay for your kids tuition.
Then when it's almost due, your position is at loss.
This is one of the main reason of "Buy High Sell Low".
Another POV of liquidation
When you are checking the liquidation heatmap for $BTC , have you consider more perspective. Like TP targets clusters or SL targets clusters?
Here's another perspective for you.
The Maker don't always eat up the bigger liquidity and don't always need to liquidate people, but The Maker always win.
Let me give you some illustration.
○ Let's say the $BTC price is now at 90k
○ if the price goes up to 95k , 5 Billion USD will be liquidated.
○ If the price goes down to 85k, 1 Billion USD will be liqu
Here's another perspective for you.
The Maker don't always eat up the bigger liquidity and don't always need to liquidate people, but The Maker always win.
Let me give you some illustration.
○ Let's say the $BTC price is now at 90k
○ if the price goes up to 95k , 5 Billion USD will be liquidated.
○ If the price goes down to 85k, 1 Billion USD will be liqu
Will BTC encounter another dump?
Latest Macro Impact to $BTC
ADP Nonfarm Employment (77k vs. 141k Forecast): Significant miss signals economic cooling, raising fears of a U.S. recession.
● Bearish Implications: Weak jobs data → risk-off sentiment → capital flight from risk assets (e.g., crypto).
● Bullish Silver Lining: Increased odds of Fed rate cuts (dovish pivot) could eventually support crypto, but short-term panic likely dominates.
The ADP miss amplifies downside risks, but Friday’s BLS jobs report will be decisive. Trad
ADP Nonfarm Employment (77k vs. 141k Forecast): Significant miss signals economic cooling, raising fears of a U.S. recession.
● Bearish Implications: Weak jobs data → risk-off sentiment → capital flight from risk assets (e.g., crypto).
● Bullish Silver Lining: Increased odds of Fed rate cuts (dovish pivot) could eventually support crypto, but short-term panic likely dominates.
The ADP miss amplifies downside risks, but Friday’s BLS jobs report will be decisive. Trad
BTC reversal after reversal
$BTC Key Observations for these few days volatility
1. Macro Catalyst Impact:
○ Trump’s announcement caused a massive pump to 95,000 (2-Mar 23:00), followed by a violent correction to 85,606 (3-Mar 23:00 GMT+7).
○ Classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” behavior: Initial euphoria → profit-taking → panic selling.
2. Technical Breakdown:
○ Price rejected at 95,000 (overbought RSI: 88.34) and collapsed -10% to 85,606.
○ RSI(7) on 4hr dropped to 33.86 (neutral-bearish), with volume spiking (16,115).
1. Macro Catalyst Impact:
○ Trump’s announcement caused a massive pump to 95,000 (2-Mar 23:00), followed by a violent correction to 85,606 (3-Mar 23:00 GMT+7).
○ Classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” behavior: Initial euphoria → profit-taking → panic selling.
2. Technical Breakdown:
○ Price rejected at 95,000 (overbought RSI: 88.34) and collapsed -10% to 85,606.
○ RSI(7) on 4hr dropped to 33.86 (neutral-bearish), with volume spiking (16,115).
BTC chance of reaching 90k+ on 1 to 3 days
Since the vote for $BTC above 90k reach 50%+ I'll publish the possibility with current condition now instead of waiting for the poll to close.
Technical Context:
Price Action:
○ Recent rally stalled at 86,516 (4hr chart), followed by consolidation near 84,500–85,500.
EMA Resistance:
○ 1hr: EMA(200) at 88,759; EMA(50) at 84,388.
○ 4hr: EMA(50) at 88,705; EMA(200) at 94,703.
RSI:
○ Neutral on 1hr/4hr (RSI 44–56), no extreme overbought/oversold signals.
Macro Catalyst:
○ China Manufacturing PMI
Technical Context:
Price Action:
○ Recent rally stalled at 86,516 (4hr chart), followed by consolidation near 84,500–85,500.
EMA Resistance:
○ 1hr: EMA(200) at 88,759; EMA(50) at 84,388.
○ 4hr: EMA(50) at 88,705; EMA(200) at 94,703.
RSI:
○ Neutral on 1hr/4hr (RSI 44–56), no extreme overbought/oversold signals.
Macro Catalyst:
○ China Manufacturing PMI
Which price target should I analyze next for $BTC ?
over $ 90,000
53%
below $ 80,000
14%
Below $ 75,000
33%
599 votes • Voting closed
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