Realistic Analyst

Probability of Bitcoin Dropping Below $81,000
(Based on latest technicals, ETF flows, and macro context)
$BTC

1. Next 1 Day
Probability: 35–40%
Rationale:
● Price Action: Current price (84,280) faces resistance near 85,000 (recent highs). A rejection here could trigger profit-taking toward $82,000–81,000.
Technical Signals:
● 1-Day RSI(7): 50 (neutral) – No overbought/oversold signal, but weak bullish momentum.
● Recent volatility: Price swing from 84,756→81,134 (17-Mar) shows susceptibility to sudden drops.
● Macro: Higher U.S. oil inventories (1.745M vs. 0.8M forecast) hint at economic slowdown risks, pressuring risk assets.

2. Next 3 Days
Probability: 45–50%
Rationale:
● ETF Flows: Mixed inflows/outflows (+2.49k on 18-Mar vs. -730 on 14-Mar) suggest institutional indecision. Sustained outflows could reignite selling pressure.
● Technical Weakness: 3-Day RSI(7): 40.29 (neutral-bearish) – Room for downside before oversold.
● Support Levels: A break below 82,000 (18−Mar close) opens the door to 81,000.

3. Next 1 Week
Probability: 55–60%
Rationale:
● 1-Week RSI(7): 36.74 (approaching oversold) – Historically, this level precedes bounces, but macro risks dominate.
● Fed meeting (20-Mar): Hawkish signals (rate-cut delays) could spark broader market sell-offs.
● U.S. Retail Sales Miss (0.2% vs. 0.6% forecast) signals weak consumer spending, a recession risk.
● Critical Support: A weekly close below 81,000 could trigger algorithmic selling toward 78,000–79,000.

Critical Levels
Immediate Resistance: 85,000 (psychological)→ 85,309 (14-Mar high).

Support
82,000→81,134 (18-Mar low) → $81,000 (target).

Scenarios
Bearish Case (60% Likelihood)
Triggers: Fed hawkishness, ETF outflows (>-1k/day), breakdown below $82,000.

Path:
1d: Drop to $82,500–83,000 → test support.
3d: Breakdown to $81,000–81,500 on weak volume.
1w: Crash to $79,000–80,000 if macro data worsens.

Bullish Case (40% Likelihood)
Triggers: Fed dovish pivot, ETF inflows (>+2k/day), reclaiming $85,000.

Path:
1d: Hold $83,000–84,000 → consolidate.
3d: Rally to $85,000–86,000 (200-day EMA).
1w: Stabilize near $85,000–87,000 on macro stabilization.

Action Plan
Short-Term Traders:
Short Entry:
Sell breakdowns below 82,000 (stop loss: 83,500) → target $81,000.

Long Entry:
Buy above 85,000 (stop loss: 83,500) → target $86,000–$87,000.

Swing Traders:
Wait for Fed guidance (20-Mar) before directional bets.

#BTC #bearishmomentum

When you are checking the liquidation heatmap for $BTC , have you consider more perspective. Like TP targets clusters or SL targets clusters?

Here's another perspective for you.
The Maker don't always eat up the bigger liquidity and don't always need to liquidate people, but The Maker always win.
Let me give you some illustration.
○ Let's say the $BTC price is now at 90k
○ if the price goes up to 95k , 5 Billion USD will be liquidated.
○ If the price goes down to 85k, 1 Billion USD will be liquidated.

Simple thoughts will be that the Maker will most likely liquidate the shorts first.
but what if at 95k there a clusters of people who set TP at 95k resulting in 10 billion Profit?
Then the maker will be at 5 Billion USD loss.

They have all the data including TP clusters and SL clusters, that's how the Maker always win.
That's why you couldn't jump in to a conclusion by only looking at which way liquidate more position, you need more data to that, then you can get more accurate price movement prediction.
Beside that, you can also combine it with Technical Analysis, Macro, or whatever suit you best and manage your risk while trading.

Sometimes even the most simple indicator works best :
○ Buy on fear (bad news)
○ Sell on greed (good news)

Latest Macro Impact to $BTC
ADP Nonfarm Employment (77k vs. 141k Forecast): Significant miss signals economic cooling, raising fears of a U.S. recession.
● Bearish Implications: Weak jobs data → risk-off sentiment → capital flight from risk assets (e.g., crypto).
● Bullish Silver Lining: Increased odds of Fed rate cuts (dovish pivot) could eventually support crypto, but short-term panic likely dominates.

The ADP miss amplifies downside risks, but Friday’s BLS jobs report will be decisive. Trade cautiously ahead of this event – a weak jobs number could trigger a flash crash to 80,000, while a strong report may revive Fed hawkish fears. Monitor:
● BTC ETF flows: Institutional behavior post-ADP.
● Fed comments: Reactions to labor market data.

Volatility warning: Position sizes small, stops tight! 🚨

#WhiteHouseCryptoSummit

$BTC Key Observations for these few days volatility
1. Macro Catalyst Impact:
○ Trump’s announcement caused a massive pump to 95,000 (2-Mar 23:00), followed by a violent correction to 85,606 (3-Mar 23:00 GMT+7).
○ Classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” behavior: Initial euphoria → profit-taking → panic selling.

2. Technical Breakdown:
○ Price rejected at 95,000 (overbought RSI: 88.34) and collapsed -10% to 85,606.
○ RSI(7) on 4hr dropped to 33.86 (neutral-bearish), with volume spiking (16,115).
○ Critical support at 85,500–86,000 (prior swing low) failed, opening the door to 80,000.

3. Market Sentiment:
○ Extreme volatility (+30% rally → -10% crash) reflects speculative froth and weak hands exiting.
○ Traders now question the sustainability of Trump’s policy (hypothetical) and regulatory risks.

Critical Levels
○ Immediate Resistance: 85,500–86,000 (failed support → new resistance).
○ Support: 82,000 (minor) → 80,000 (target).

The hypothetical Trump-driven pump-and-dump has left Bitcoin vulnerable. While a relief bounce is possible (oversold RSI), the path to 80,000 is now probable within 3 days unless institutional buyers step in. Monitor:
○ Regulatory responses to Trump’s statement.
○ Volume trends: Sustained selling (>20k red) confirms bearish momentum.

Trade cautiously – volatility will remain extreme! 🚨

Since the vote for $BTC above 90k reach 50%+ I'll publish the possibility with current condition now instead of waiting for the poll to close.
Technical Context:
Price Action:
○ Recent rally stalled at 86,516 (4hr chart), followed by consolidation near 84,500–85,500.

EMA Resistance:
○ 1hr: EMA(200) at 88,759; EMA(50) at 84,388.
○ 4hr: EMA(50) at 88,705; EMA(200) at 94,703.

RSI:
○ Neutral on 1hr/4hr (RSI 44–56), no extreme overbought/oversold signals.

Macro Catalyst:
○ China Manufacturing PMI (50.2): Beat expectations (50.0), signaling economic stabilization. Mildly bullish for risk assets like crypto.

Probability of Reaching >90,000
1. Next 1 Day (Probability: 15–20%)
Rationale:
○ Price must rally +6.5% from current levels (~84,500 → 90,000).
○ Resistance at 88,705–88,759 (4hr/1hr EMA(50/200)) will likely stall momentum.
○ Requires a macro catalyst (e.g., Fed dovishness, ETF inflows) to break key EMAs.

2. Next 3 Days (Probability: 35–40%)
Rationale:
○ More time for bullish momentum to build.
○ If price holds above 85,000, a grind toward 88,705 (4hr EMA(50)) is likely. If you notice the buyer defend 85,000 for awhile earlier today making the chart flat.
○ Breaking 88,705 opens a path to 90,000–94,703 (4hr EMA(200)).

Critical Levels
○ Immediate Resistance: 85,500 → 86,516 (prior high) → 88,705 (EMA(50)).
○ Target: 90,000 (psychological) → 94,703 (EMA(200)).
○ Support: 84,500 → 83,500 (bullish invalidation).

Scenarios
Bullish Case (30%)
Triggers: Sustained risk-on sentiment, ETF inflows, dovish Fed commentary.

Path:
1d: Test 86,500–87,000.
3d: Break above 88,705, rally to 90,000–92,000.

Bearish Case (70%)
Triggers: Profit-taking at EMAs, weak volume, macro headwinds (e.g., U.S. recession fears).

Path:
1d: Rejection at 86,500 → drop to 83,500–84,000.
3d: Range-bound between 83,500–88,705.

Action Plan
1. Aggressive Traders:
Buy breakouts above 86,500 (stop-loss: 85,800) → target 88,705–90,000.

2. Conservative Traders:
Wait for a confirmed close above 88,705 (4hr EMA(50)) before entering longs.

Conclusion:
While the 3-day window offers a plausible path to 90,000 (especially if EMAs break), the 1-day odds remain low due to immediate technical hurdles. Trade the range 83,500–88,705 until a decisive breakout occurs. Monitor Fed commentary and volume spikes! 📊
#BTCDipOrRebound

$BTC
Key Observations
Price Action:
● Strong Rally: Price surged +8.5% from 78,200 (28-02 15:45) to 84,888 (28-02 23:00) on massive volume (39,526 green).
● Consolidation: Pullback to 83,817 (01-03 07:00) with cooling RSI (hourly: 57.1), forming a bull flag pattern.
RSI Context:
● Daily RSI(7): 15.5 – Still historically oversold, supporting further upside.
● 4hr RSI(7): 51.0 – Neutral, room for growth.
● 3-Day RSI(7): 15.13 – Extreme undervaluation, signaling long-term reversal potential.
Macro Impact:
● Bullish: Canada GDP beat (+2.6% vs. 1.9%), U.S. Core PCE inflation cooled (YoY: 2.6% vs. 2.9% prior).
● Bearish: U.S. trade deficit widened (-153B vs. −116B forecast), Atlanta Fed GDPNow plunged (-1.5% vs. +2.3% forecast).
EMA Context:
Price remains below all key EMAs (200-day: 85,569; 50-day: 95,480), but the rally suggests momentum toward mean reversion.
Price Prediction & Probabilities
1. Next 12 Hours
Target: 84,500–85,569 (200-day EMA).
Probability: 70%
Rationale:
● Bull flag consolidation near 83,500–84,300 suggests continuation of the rally.
● Positive PCE data and oversold RSI favor upside.
● Resistance at 85,569 (200-day EMA) will test bullish strength.
2. Next 1 Day
Target: 86,000–87,000 (next liquidity zone).
Probability: 65%
Rationale:
● A break above 85,569 could trigger algorithmic buying and short-covering.
● Mixed macro data (weak U.S. GDPNow vs. strong Canada GDP) creates choppy momentum.
3. Next 3 Days
Target: 88,000–90,000 (relief rally ceiling).
Probability: 55%
Rationale:
● Extreme 3-day RSI (15.13) aligns with historical bounce patterns (e.g., +20–25% rallies).
● Bearish EMAs (91,240–95,480) will likely cap gains unless macro sentiment shifts.

Critical Levels
Support: 83,500 → 82,500 → 81,500.
Resistance: 85,569 (200-day EMA) → 86,000 → 87,000.

Scenarios
1. Bullish Case (60%)
Triggers: Oversold RSI reversal, PCE-driven optimism, ETF inflows.
Path:
12h: Break above 85,569, targeting 86,000.
1d: Rally to 87,000 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 94,000 → 78,200).
3d: Test 88,000–90,000 if macro risks stabilize.
2. Bearish Case (40%)
Triggers: GDPNow recession fears, profit-taking at EMAs, weak volume.
Path:
12h: Rejection at 85,569 → drop to 83,500.
1–3d: Retest 81,500–80,000 if sentiment sours.
Action Plan
1. Short-Term Traders
● Buy Breakouts: Enter above 85,569 (stop-loss: 84,800), target 86,500–87,000.
● Sell Rejections: Short at 85,500–85,800 (stop-loss: 86,100), target 84,000–83,500.
2. Swing Traders
Accumulate Longs: Scale into dips below 84,000 (stop-loss: 82,500), target 88,000–90,000
Final Note
The market is in a pivotal phase:
●A close above 85,569 (200-day EMA) would confirm a bullish trend reversal.
● A failure here risks a retest of 80,000–81,500.
Trade Recommendation: Favor longs with tight stops, but remain cautious of GDPNow-driven volatility. The extreme RSI setup offers a high-reward opportunity if macro headwinds ease. 🚀

#PriceTrendAnalysis
#MarketSentimentWatch
#BTCRebundsBack
#BTC
#predictons

$BTC
Key Observations
1. Price Action:
○ Capitulation Low: Price plunged to 79,301 (11:00), then rebounded to 80,684 (11:30) with mixed volume.
○ Recovery Attempts: Weak buying pressure (volume <8,000) and repeated rejections near 80,800–81,500 signal bearish dominance.

2. RSI Extremes:
○ Daily RSI(7): 11.8 – Historically oversold (rarely seen in crypto), signaling potential for a violent reversal.
○ 3-Day RSI(7): 12.6 – Extreme undervaluation, similar to past market bottoms (e.g., March 2020).
○ 1hr/4hr RSI: Oversold (15.5–22), but no bullish divergence yet.

3. EMA Context:
○ Price is far below all key EMAs (15-day: 91,240; 50-day: 95,480; 200-day: 85,569), confirming a strong bear trend.
○ The 200-day EMA (85,569) is a critical long-term resistance level.

4. Macro Risks:
○ Japan’s Weak Data (CPI, Industrial Production) reinforces global recession fears, weighing on risk assets.
○ Fed Balance Sheet Contraction: Neutral/slightly bearish for liquidity-sensitive assets like crypto.

Probability of Reaching above 82,000
1. Next 12 Hours (Probability: 55–60%)
Rationale:
○ Oversold intraday RSI (15m/1hr) favors a technical bounce, but weak volume and resistance at 81,500–82,000 may cap gains.
○ A close above 81,500 would signal bullish momentum.

2. Next 1 Day (Probability: 65–70%)
Rationale:
○ Extreme daily RSI (11.8) and capitulation at 79,301 increase odds of short-covering.
○ Resistance at 82,000 aligns with the 15m chart’s prior high (82,854) and the 4hr RSI recovery zone.

3. Next 3 Days (Probability: 75–80%)
Rationale:
○ Historic oversold conditions (daily/3-day RSI) typically precede sharp reversals.
○ Even in bear markets, relief rallies of 10–15% are common after such extremes (target: 82,000–85,569).

Critical Levels
● Support: 79,500 (swing low) → 78,000 (psychological).
● Resistance: 81,500 → 82,000 → 85,569 (200-day EMA).

Scenarios :
Bullish Relief Rally (60%)
Triggers: Short-covering, oversold RSI bounce, ETF inflows, or positive macro catalyst.

Path:
12h: Test 81,500–82,000.
1d: Break above 82,000, targeting 83,500–84,000.
3d: Rally toward 85,569 (200-day EMA).

Bearish Continuation (40%)
Triggers: Macro panic, breakdown below 79,500, low volume.

Path:
12h: Drop to 79,000–78,000.
1d–3d: New lows (77,000–75,000) if sentiment worsens.

Action Plan
Short-Term Traders (12h–1d)
1. Buy Dips:
○ Entry: 79,500–80,000 (stop-loss: 78,900).
○ Target: 81,500–82,000 (sell 50% here).

2. Sell Resistance:
○ Entry: 81,800–82,200 (stop-loss: 82,500).
○ Target: 80,000–79,500.

Swing Traders (3d)
1. Aggressive Longs:
○ Entry: Below 80,000 (scale-in).
○ Target: 82,000 → 85,569 (200-day EMA).
○ Stop-Loss: Close below 78,000.

2. Conservative Wait:
Confirm bullish reversal with:
○ Daily RSI divergence.
○ Close above 85,569 (200-day EMA).

$BTC

Key Observations
1. Price Action:
- 22:35: Price surged to 86,119 (RSI: 66.3) but closed at 85,941 with 2,438 green volume, signaling bullish exhaustion.
- 22:40–22:50: Rejection at 85,995 → gradual drop to 85,607 (RSI: 49.2), forming lower highs (86,119 → 85,995 → 85,915).

2. RSI Dynamics:
- Bearish Divergence: Price made a higher high at 86,119, but RSI(7) peaked at 66.3 (vs. prior peaks >70), indicating fading momentum.
- RSI(7) dropped to 49.2 (neutral), aligning with the rejection at resistance.

3. Volume Trends:
- The rally to 86,119 had moderate volume (2,438), but follow-up candles saw declining volume (1,474 → 993 → 1,121), confirming weak buying conviction.

Probabilities for touching 84,251
● Next 12 Hours
Probability: 75–80%

Rationale:
○ Failed breakout at 86,119 + bearish RSI divergence signal a resumption of the downtrend.
○ Immediate support at 85,500 is vulnerable; a breakdown here targets 85,000 → 84,251.

● Next 1 Day
Probability: 80–85%

Rationale:
○ Bearish structure (lower highs, weak volume) and macro risks (GDP/jobless data) dominate.
○ A close below 85,000 would trigger algorithmic selling toward 84,251.

● Next 3 Days
Probability: 60–65%

Rationale:
○ Extreme oversold conditions on longer timeframes (daily RSI: 26.7) may spark a bounce, but the broader downtrend favors eventual downside.
○ Sellers will likely reload shorts near 86,000–87,000 after any relief rally.

Critical Levels
- Immediate Resistance: 85,800–86,000 (failed breakout zone).
- Support: 85,500 (minor), 85,000 (psychological), 84,609 (swing low), 84,251 (target).

Scenarios
1. Bearish Continuation (70% Probability)
○ Triggers: Breakdown below 85,500 with volume >2,000.
○ Path: 85,500 → 85,000 (accelerated selling) → 84,609 → 84,251.

Target hit within 12–24 hours.

2. Bullish Reversal (30% Probability)
○ Triggers: Close above 86,200 with volume >3,000.
○ Path: Short-covering rally to 86,500–87,000, delaying the drop to 84,251.

Technical Signals
○ RSI(7): Neutral on 5m/15m charts but bearish on 1h/4h/daily.
○ Volume: Declining buying volume during rallies suggests lack of conviction.
○ Market Structure: Lower highs (86,119 → 85,995) + descending channel.

Action Plan
1. Short-Term Traders:

Sell rallies to 85,800–86,000 (stop-loss: 86,200).

Target 84,251 (partial profits at 85,000 and 84,609).

2. Swing Traders:

Watch for a bullish hammer or divergence near 84,251–84,609 to enter longs.

Risk Management:

A close above 86,200 invalidates the bearish structure; exit shorts and reassess.

Notes : all provided time are GMT+7 timezone