Since the vote for $BTC above 90k reach 50%+ I'll publish the possibility with current condition now instead of waiting for the poll to close.
Technical Context:
Price Action:
○ Recent rally stalled at 86,516 (4hr chart), followed by consolidation near 84,500–85,500.
EMA Resistance:
○ 1hr: EMA(200) at 88,759; EMA(50) at 84,388.
○ 4hr: EMA(50) at 88,705; EMA(200) at 94,703.
RSI:
○ Neutral on 1hr/4hr (RSI 44–56), no extreme overbought/oversold signals.
Macro Catalyst:
○ China Manufacturing PMI (50.2): Beat expectations (50.0), signaling economic stabilization. Mildly bullish for risk assets like crypto.
Probability of Reaching >90,000
1. Next 1 Day (Probability: 15–20%)
Rationale:
○ Price must rally +6.5% from current levels (~84,500 → 90,000).
○ Resistance at 88,705–88,759 (4hr/1hr EMA(50/200)) will likely stall momentum.
○ Requires a macro catalyst (e.g., Fed dovishness, ETF inflows) to break key EMAs.
2. Next 3 Days (Probability: 35–40%)
Rationale:
○ More time for bullish momentum to build.
○ If price holds above 85,000, a grind toward 88,705 (4hr EMA(50)) is likely. If you notice the buyer defend 85,000 for awhile earlier today making the chart flat.
○ Breaking 88,705 opens a path to 90,000–94,703 (4hr EMA(200)).
Critical Levels
○ Immediate Resistance: 85,500 → 86,516 (prior high) → 88,705 (EMA(50)).
○ Target: 90,000 (psychological) → 94,703 (EMA(200)).
○ Support: 84,500 → 83,500 (bullish invalidation).
Scenarios
Bullish Case (30%)
Triggers: Sustained risk-on sentiment, ETF inflows, dovish Fed commentary.
Path:
1d: Test 86,500–87,000.
3d: Break above 88,705, rally to 90,000–92,000.
Bearish Case (70%)
Triggers: Profit-taking at EMAs, weak volume, macro headwinds (e.g., U.S. recession fears).
Path:
1d: Rejection at 86,500 → drop to 83,500–84,000.
3d: Range-bound between 83,500–88,705.
Action Plan
1. Aggressive Traders:
Buy breakouts above 86,500 (stop-loss: 85,800) → target 88,705–90,000.
2. Conservative Traders:
Wait for a confirmed close above 88,705 (4hr EMA(50)) before entering longs.
Conclusion:
While the 3-day window offers a plausible path to 90,000 (especially if EMAs break), the 1-day odds remain low due to immediate technical hurdles. Trade the range 83,500–88,705 until a decisive breakout occurs. Monitor Fed commentary and volume spikes! 📊
