Key Observations
1. Price Action:
- 22:35: Price surged to 86,119 (RSI: 66.3) but closed at 85,941 with 2,438 green volume, signaling bullish exhaustion.
- 22:40–22:50: Rejection at 85,995 → gradual drop to 85,607 (RSI: 49.2), forming lower highs (86,119 → 85,995 → 85,915).
2. RSI Dynamics:
- Bearish Divergence: Price made a higher high at 86,119, but RSI(7) peaked at 66.3 (vs. prior peaks >70), indicating fading momentum.
- RSI(7) dropped to 49.2 (neutral), aligning with the rejection at resistance.
3. Volume Trends:
- The rally to 86,119 had moderate volume (2,438), but follow-up candles saw declining volume (1,474 → 993 → 1,121), confirming weak buying conviction.
Probabilities for touching 84,251
● Next 12 Hours
Probability: 75–80%
Rationale:
○ Failed breakout at 86,119 + bearish RSI divergence signal a resumption of the downtrend.
○ Immediate support at 85,500 is vulnerable; a breakdown here targets 85,000 → 84,251.
● Next 1 Day
Probability: 80–85%
Rationale:
○ Bearish structure (lower highs, weak volume) and macro risks (GDP/jobless data) dominate.
○ A close below 85,000 would trigger algorithmic selling toward 84,251.
● Next 3 Days
Probability: 60–65%
Rationale:
○ Extreme oversold conditions on longer timeframes (daily RSI: 26.7) may spark a bounce, but the broader downtrend favors eventual downside.
○ Sellers will likely reload shorts near 86,000–87,000 after any relief rally.
Critical Levels
- Immediate Resistance: 85,800–86,000 (failed breakout zone).
- Support: 85,500 (minor), 85,000 (psychological), 84,609 (swing low), 84,251 (target).
Scenarios
1. Bearish Continuation (70% Probability)
○ Triggers: Breakdown below 85,500 with volume >2,000.
○ Path: 85,500 → 85,000 (accelerated selling) → 84,609 → 84,251.
Target hit within 12–24 hours.
2. Bullish Reversal (30% Probability)
○ Triggers: Close above 86,200 with volume >3,000.
○ Path: Short-covering rally to 86,500–87,000, delaying the drop to 84,251.
Technical Signals
○ RSI(7): Neutral on 5m/15m charts but bearish on 1h/4h/daily.
○ Volume: Declining buying volume during rallies suggests lack of conviction.
○ Market Structure: Lower highs (86,119 → 85,995) + descending channel.
Action Plan
1. Short-Term Traders:
Sell rallies to 85,800–86,000 (stop-loss: 86,200).
Target 84,251 (partial profits at 85,000 and 84,609).
2. Swing Traders:
Watch for a bullish hammer or divergence near 84,251–84,609 to enter longs.
Risk Management:
A close above 86,200 invalidates the bearish structure; exit shorts and reassess.
Notes : all provided time are GMT+7 timezone
