Probability of Bitcoin Dropping Below $81,000
(Based on latest technicals, ETF flows, and macro context)
1. Next 1 Day
Probability: 35–40%
Rationale:
● Price Action: Current price (84,280) faces resistance near 85,000 (recent highs). A rejection here could trigger profit-taking toward $82,000–81,000.
Technical Signals:
● 1-Day RSI(7): 50 (neutral) – No overbought/oversold signal, but weak bullish momentum.
● Recent volatility: Price swing from 84,756→81,134 (17-Mar) shows susceptibility to sudden drops.
● Macro: Higher U.S. oil inventories (1.745M vs. 0.8M forecast) hint at economic slowdown risks, pressuring risk assets.
2. Next 3 Days
Probability: 45–50%
Rationale:
● ETF Flows: Mixed inflows/outflows (+2.49k on 18-Mar vs. -730 on 14-Mar) suggest institutional indecision. Sustained outflows could reignite selling pressure.
● Technical Weakness: 3-Day RSI(7): 40.29 (neutral-bearish) – Room for downside before oversold.
● Support Levels: A break below 82,000 (18−Mar close) opens the door to 81,000.
3. Next 1 Week
Probability: 55–60%
Rationale:
● 1-Week RSI(7): 36.74 (approaching oversold) – Historically, this level precedes bounces, but macro risks dominate.
● Fed meeting (20-Mar): Hawkish signals (rate-cut delays) could spark broader market sell-offs.
● U.S. Retail Sales Miss (0.2% vs. 0.6% forecast) signals weak consumer spending, a recession risk.
● Critical Support: A weekly close below 81,000 could trigger algorithmic selling toward 78,000–79,000.
Critical Levels
Immediate Resistance: 85,000 (psychological)→ 85,309 (14-Mar high).
Support
82,000→81,134 (18-Mar low) → $81,000 (target).
Scenarios
Bearish Case (60% Likelihood)
Triggers: Fed hawkishness, ETF outflows (>-1k/day), breakdown below $82,000.
Path:
1d: Drop to $82,500–83,000 → test support.
3d: Breakdown to $81,000–81,500 on weak volume.
1w: Crash to $79,000–80,000 if macro data worsens.
Bullish Case (40% Likelihood)
Triggers: Fed dovish pivot, ETF inflows (>+2k/day), reclaiming $85,000.
Path:
1d: Hold $83,000–84,000 → consolidate.
3d: Rally to $85,000–86,000 (200-day EMA).
1w: Stabilize near $85,000–87,000 on macro stabilization.
Action Plan
Short-Term Traders:
Short Entry:
Sell breakdowns below 82,000 (stop loss: 83,500) → target $81,000.
Long Entry:
Buy above 85,000 (stop loss: 83,500) → target $86,000–$87,000.
Swing Traders:
Wait for Fed guidance (20-Mar) before directional bets.
