Key Observations
1. Price Action:
○ Capitulation Low: Price plunged to 79,301 (11:00), then rebounded to 80,684 (11:30) with mixed volume.
○ Recovery Attempts: Weak buying pressure (volume <8,000) and repeated rejections near 80,800–81,500 signal bearish dominance.
2. RSI Extremes:
○ Daily RSI(7): 11.8 – Historically oversold (rarely seen in crypto), signaling potential for a violent reversal.
○ 3-Day RSI(7): 12.6 – Extreme undervaluation, similar to past market bottoms (e.g., March 2020).
○ 1hr/4hr RSI: Oversold (15.5–22), but no bullish divergence yet.
3. EMA Context:
○ Price is far below all key EMAs (15-day: 91,240; 50-day: 95,480; 200-day: 85,569), confirming a strong bear trend.
○ The 200-day EMA (85,569) is a critical long-term resistance level.
4. Macro Risks:
○ Japan’s Weak Data (CPI, Industrial Production) reinforces global recession fears, weighing on risk assets.
○ Fed Balance Sheet Contraction: Neutral/slightly bearish for liquidity-sensitive assets like crypto.
Probability of Reaching above 82,000
1. Next 12 Hours (Probability: 55–60%)
Rationale:
○ Oversold intraday RSI (15m/1hr) favors a technical bounce, but weak volume and resistance at 81,500–82,000 may cap gains.
○ A close above 81,500 would signal bullish momentum.
2. Next 1 Day (Probability: 65–70%)
Rationale:
○ Extreme daily RSI (11.8) and capitulation at 79,301 increase odds of short-covering.
○ Resistance at 82,000 aligns with the 15m chart’s prior high (82,854) and the 4hr RSI recovery zone.
3. Next 3 Days (Probability: 75–80%)
Rationale:
○ Historic oversold conditions (daily/3-day RSI) typically precede sharp reversals.
○ Even in bear markets, relief rallies of 10–15% are common after such extremes (target: 82,000–85,569).
Critical Levels
● Support: 79,500 (swing low) → 78,000 (psychological).
● Resistance: 81,500 → 82,000 → 85,569 (200-day EMA).
Scenarios :
Bullish Relief Rally (60%)
Triggers: Short-covering, oversold RSI bounce, ETF inflows, or positive macro catalyst.
Path:
12h: Test 81,500–82,000.
1d: Break above 82,000, targeting 83,500–84,000.
3d: Rally toward 85,569 (200-day EMA).
Bearish Continuation (40%)
Triggers: Macro panic, breakdown below 79,500, low volume.
Path:
12h: Drop to 79,000–78,000.
1d–3d: New lows (77,000–75,000) if sentiment worsens.
Action Plan
Short-Term Traders (12h–1d)
1. Buy Dips:
○ Entry: 79,500–80,000 (stop-loss: 78,900).
○ Target: 81,500–82,000 (sell 50% here).
2. Sell Resistance:
○ Entry: 81,800–82,200 (stop-loss: 82,500).
○ Target: 80,000–79,500.
Swing Traders (3d)
1. Aggressive Longs:
○ Entry: Below 80,000 (scale-in).
○ Target: 82,000 → 85,569 (200-day EMA).
○ Stop-Loss: Close below 78,000.
2. Conservative Wait:
Confirm bullish reversal with:
○ Daily RSI divergence.
○ Close above 85,569 (200-day EMA).