牛市1000倍

Finally, respond:

First, let’s talk about my personal trading situation in the past week:

Mark the daily rise and fall, and the current accuracy is 100%.

As for the accuracy of the strategy, yesterday I stepped back to 60300, and finally stepped back to the position of 60060, which is considered a mistake. It was correct in the past few days, and the points were basically accurate, and the strategy accuracy rate was 80%.

For three consecutive times, the news data was analyzed in advance, and the prediction success rate was 100%.

This is the situation in the past week.

But what I want to express is that this does not mean anything, nor is it something I want to use to create a personal image for myself.

It can only show that my recent grasp of market trends is pretty good and I have adapted to the rhythm of the market.

But I always believe that there is no permanent profit master in the market, and my accuracy rate was very high in June.

But when the market rhythm suddenly changed in July, I even had doubts about myself.

So why are there no traders who make money forever? The market conditions have certain rules, but the rhythm is not static.

Sometimes there is a sudden change from shock to unilateral rhythm, and it is easy to change from stable profit to stable loss without reacting for a while.

Therefore, my current habit is to make as much profit as possible when I can grasp the market.

When the market changes its rhythm, adapt in time. If you really can't adapt, give up the unfamiliar rhythm. Trading is not just a matter of time. It doesn't hurt to take a break for a while.

The most important point, I said before:

My points are for reference only. Comments from traders who have their own market views and trading logic are welcome. We can communicate together.

But there is no logic, I haven't read the article in detail, I just come up with it for my own bad taste, and I just post it without thinking.

I do not recognize his character, nor do I think he has the qualities a trader should have.

So from now on, I will be directly blocked from this kind of meeting, and I will not respond to such comments anymore, which is also a waste of my time.

《Let the Crypto World Fly》

It's too late! Trump has collected the taxes from the crypto world ninety years later, we have come to the wrong place!

Oh? I actually think this place in the crypto world is nice.

Retail investors have become poor, there’s no profit left to squeeze.

I never intended to make money from retail investors.

If you don’t make money from retail investors, who do you make money from??

Whoever has money, takes it!

Have you ever cut leeks?

No.

Come, let me tell you,

Cutting leeks requires clever storytelling, building relationships, and handing over loyalty tokens. When the wealthy invest, only then can retail investors follow and pay; after making money, the wealthy's money is returned in full, while the retail investors’ money is split 70/30.

Why only 70%?

70% belongs to them! Getting 30% still depends on the face of Mr. Chuan.

Whose face?

His! — Mr. Chuan.

Him? I have struggled for years, learned technical analysis, studied emotional cycles, researched big players' addresses, learned macro knowledge, managed my mindset, and practiced self-cultivation, just to look at his face?

Yes!

Let me ask you, why did I choose to trade? I have worked hard to learn a lot of knowledge and gained many insights.

It’s just that my legs aren’t nimble enough; I can’t kneel down.

And now you tell me to trade in the crypto world, I still have to kneel to make money?

I still have to win over the wealthy and cleverly build relationships? Hand over loyalty tokens?

Doesn’t that just make me a beggar on my knees?

Even so, how many people want to kneel but don’t have this opportunity.

Making money, trading, is not shameful.

Shameful, it’s so damn shameful!

So do you want to stand or do you want to make money?

I want to stand and earn money!

Can’t earn it!

Can’t earn it?

This: (technical analysis), can it make money?

It can make money, occasionally.

This: (following big players), can it make money?

It can make money, while kneeling.

This: (technical analysis) plus this: (following big players), can it make money while standing?

May I ask, who is the trading master?

I am but a humble leek king.

$BTC

Raise a question:

With the clear presence of whales in Bitcoin now, who will be the liquidity provider after the exit of these whales?

In other words, which group will dominate the cryptocurrency space in the future?

$ MOODENG Book continues from previous section:

Future market trends of hippos, the last two thought screenshots, a total of six, the first four in the previous post

$MOODENG, Future Trends of Hippo, all thoughts analyzed as follows:

Involves news, sentiment, liquidity, logical reasoning, and narrative reasoning.

Screenshot format: a total of six images, with two remaining in the next article.

$MOODENG, Subsequent Trend Thought Analysis:

The weekly gap of 0.16-0.18 has not been backtested, and here it is highly likely to directly pursue a one-sided daily line to boost sentiment.

In the evening, if the CPI data is released, there may be a short-term spike to seek a pullback entry point.

Second thought screenshot:

$MOODENG establishes a leading target, subsequent trend judgment.

This is just the first screenshot of the idea, serving as an introduction. As the subsequent market conditions align with my judgment, I will gradually share the entire thought process through screenshots.

#ETH突破2500

$KAITO Currency Rise Analysis and $vine Trend:

The daily gap for vine has been broken through, and if it revisits the gap, it will also form a fuel-up pattern in the air. You can hold and observe for now.

$BTC On April 7th, I was firmly bullish, and now Bitcoin has broken through 100k, why am I not in FOMO?

To summarize: On April 10th, I noted that Bitcoin quickly recovered after testing 74500 twice, focusing on a medium-term rebound.

Subsequently, I personally arranged some secondary altcoin positions. On April 13th at 9 AM, it reached the short-term rebound expectation level of 86100, anticipating a short-term pullback.

After monitoring the market for a day, I found that Bitcoin remains strong. At 10 PM, I changed my view: the market is strong, retail investor sentiment is low, and I believe it will continue to rise, with the market in a phase of skepticism before the rise, looking at 95000.

April 30th view: The pullback here at 95000 won't be too deep, and I believe it will accelerate on May 2nd, breaking through 100k, driving altcoins to surge, quickly escaping the low price levels.

However, perhaps the strength of the short positions accumulated above is not enough. On May 2nd, it did not break out but instead experienced a false breakdown, then due to the interest rate landing on May 8th, it moved in line with expectations and managed a breakout against retail investors.

Currently, Bitcoin has reached 103000, exceeding my medium-term rebound expectation for $btc on April 10th, and the trend resembles a reversal.

Although altcoins have increased, they have not followed the trend I expected on April 30th. I believe that when Bitcoin breaks through 100k, a significant surge trend will occur simultaneously across many altcoins.

Many altcoins are still at low price levels, and most short-term non-altcoin players should still be trapped in losses.

Thus, the current market perspective can be seen as both a reversal and a rebound; the reversal is for Bitcoin, while the rebound is for most altcoins.

The current market trend for Bitcoin indicates that breaking new highs is likely (tentatively looking at the end of May to mid-June).

Therefore, even if altcoins remain weak, after Bitcoin breaks through new highs again, there will be significant opportunities for small retail investors under emotional factors. Just wait for it.

Do not short strong coins; wait for opportunities in secondary spot or new targets.

For me personally, since April 10th, the secondary targets I arranged have remained untouched, achieving unity of knowledge and action.

I just didn’t expect that altcoins would still be relatively weak. In the future, when choosing targets, I will need to consider the chip structure and the increase in retail investor holding rates.

Additionally, after confirming the trend of the market warming up, it is essential to prioritize the leading assets—Bitcoin and mainstream coins. The mainstream plays a role in setting the stage, and only after their performance do some altcoins gradually begin to take the stage.

#BTC重返10万

Finally, here's a vote on altcoin positions:

Gold is skyrocketing! BTC breaks through $88,000, JD enters crypto payments! What trends might occur in the future financial market?

Gold has shown an accelerating trend in recent days, strongly breaking through the 3400 mark, with an increase of over 30% since January this year.

It can be seen that the current global funds are mainly focused on risk aversion, and the only physical asset with strong risk-averse properties is gold.

Although no one can predict the peak of gold at this stage, the funds that have previously flowed into gold were mainly for risk-averse purposes. Recently, there has been a trend of retail investors investing in gold at high prices.

It is worth mentioning that Bitcoin, known as "digital gold", has also been steadily rising recently, breaking through $88,000 yesterday. It has increased nearly 20% from the low of $74,500 on April 7.

In the past few days, despite the downward trend in U.S. stocks, Bitcoin has still risen against the trend, showing an initial decoupling from U.S. stocks.

So, will cryptocurrencies, which have been in a downward trend for several months this year, welcome a reversal and become a favored safe-haven asset for funds that have nowhere to go or are overflowing?

First of all, last year, individuals officially entered the cryptocurrency market when Bitcoin was promoted through U.S. stock ETFs and Hong Kong's strong layout in Web3; under the premise that U.S. stocks are about to enter a cyclical bear market, cryptocurrency is viewed as a new liquidity pool for the dollar, welcoming a large influx of funds.

For cryptocurrencies to achieve the above conditions, they must maintain independence and decouple from U.S. stocks, unaffected by their cyclical downward trend. Unfortunately, since the peak of U.S. stocks, Bitcoin has not shown a divergence trend from U.S. stocks.

Only in the past few days, as gold, a too singular safe-haven asset, has been pushed to a high position, has Bitcoin risen against the trend, slightly revealing a tendency to no longer follow U.S. stocks.

However, against the backdrop of gold's fierce rise, Bitcoin's initial decoupling trend at this time seems somewhat forced, as it is merely pushed to the forefront for needed purposes; essentially, it does not possess a strong consensus-driven risk-averse property.

The trend has already occurred, and one should not forcibly impose personal judgment; rather, it is important to understand one's starting point while observing or following the trend.

However, to promote a comprehensive recovery in the crypto market, the extent of the dollar's decline may still be far from enough, and further observation is needed.

#美股下挫

Be cautious about shorting $BTC , or choose to observe. It is highly likely to reach 91000.

This is not a pullback point for the 75 rebound; it feels more like a consolidation between the 5 EMA and 10 EMA on the 12-hour chart.

Moreover, both the high and low points are gradually increasing, with short-term movements showing slow rises and rapid falls, resembling a washout and accumulation in the 835-860 range, while alleviating the upper range of 867-881.

If the judgment is correct, on the 12-hour chart, when it touches the 5 EMA at 84900, that will be the low point before the acceleration.

#比特币与美国关税政策

$BTC 86100 may not be the endpoint, is there a possibility of seeing over 90000 next week?

Previous tweet - The four-hour upward trend has ended, temporarily overturned to wait and see.

Here, the four-hour decline is not smooth, instead, it seems like a washout.

At the same time, Sol is still performing too strongly.

So for BTC here, it is very likely to extend the fifth wave of the upward trend before filling the gap at 80000, going up to over 90000, even reaching 95000.

Finally, combined with the emotional aspect, most people are very indifferent to the nearly 10,000-point rise from 745-861.

Therefore, the range from 86100 to 83600 is likely to be a point of divergence in the upward trend.

After a short-term washout, it will lead to the climax of the last main upward wave. This will conclude.

Emotionally, it will go through: panic - doubt - fomo. Currently, it is in the doubt stage.

However, if the weekly trend goes this way, it also proves that 74500 is not the bottom of this long-term downward trend.

#巨鲸动向

The four-hour rise of $BTC has temporarily ended, pay attention to the pullback at 80000.

The previous article mentioned a second test at 74500, with a quick rebound confirming the bottom.

On April 9, the bullish target was set at 86100. It was precisely reached.

Thus, the five-wave rise on the four-hour chart has officially ended.

Next, pay attention to the three areas: 80000, 77000, and 75500.

Because this bottom's rise was relatively rapid.

Therefore, if the four-hour entity breaks below 75500, then the previous low will not be the mid-term bottom.

#加密市场反弹 #巨鲸动向

It's time! Break the cup as a signal, the weekly rebound is about to come!

The current mid-term market trend has basically become clear.

$BTC 74500 quickly recovered from the second test, which likely confirms the mid-term bottom here.

Last night, Trump publicly called for orders, and two hours later, announced a 90-day tariff pause.

The encrypted US stocks surged accordingly.

Tonight, the news is starting to price in a June interest rate cut.

So the upcoming market trend is very clear:

The encrypted US stocks will experience a weekly rebound while speculating on the expectations of a June interest rate cut.

Nvidia's rebound target is around 130, and the Nasdaq's rebound target is 18500-19000.

BTC is temporarily viewed at 95000.

However, even if the June interest rate cut materializes, the US stocks will only be regarded as a rebound trend.

And after the cut, the cyclical bear market will still continue.

At that time, whether crypto will decouple from US stocks, and whether US dollar liquidity will flow into crypto,

We will remain cautious for now.

Reminder: The current market is somewhat like Trump flipping the clouds and then bringing rain.

In the coming period, volatility will be relatively large.

Recently, many people have developed a short-selling mindset, and when the majority becomes accustomed to this, the market will begin to harvest habitual thinking.

The viewpoint is a personal subjective opinion for reference only.

#特朗普暂停新关税 #交易心理学

$BTC Bull Market Returning? Let's Talk About Crypto and A-shares

Yesterday, BTC's four-hour candlestick broke through 88000, followed by a pullback, with altcoins mostly seeing a 10-20% increase. So, is this wave of increase a return of the bull market, or just a rebound?

First of all, my personal view: the current market can only be seen as a rebound from the oversold level of 76600.

Only when BTC's daily candlestick breaks above 91100 might my outlook on Bitcoin change. But this does not necessarily represent the direction of the entire crypto market.

Because the divergence trend between BTC and altcoins means, to some extent, that the Bitcoin index is distorted.

This reflects a common phenomenon we've seen over the past year: when BTC rises, altcoins don’t necessarily rise; but when BTC falls, altcoins are likely to plummet.

Therefore, in judging the trend of the entire crypto market, we can also consider SOL.

When SOL's daily candlestick breaks 183 and does not quickly pull back, it could also be seen as forming a double top or head and shoulders pattern.

Under this condition, altcoins may experience a significant rebound.

However, in the long term, the outlook is not optimistic. BTC still follows the U.S. stock market; currently, it has not decoupled. Moreover, the decline in the U.S. stock market since the beginning of the year can only be viewed as a normal correction, and the risks of accelerated crashes or unforeseen events have not yet emerged.

As long as the accelerated crash of the U.S. stock market has not arrived, the crypto market is like a sword of Damocles hanging overhead, offering no sense of security.

The question that most crypto investors are most concerned about is: Is there still an altcoin season?

Undoubtedly, there is an altcoin season, but not for all cryptocurrencies. Before it arrives, it is highly probable that many secondary altcoins will be delisted or vanish during this downturn cycle.

So currently, for long-term positions, it is best to focus on the right side and keep it as a small portion of the overall crypto position, ensuring that sudden reversals do not completely leave you empty-handed.

At this moment, for altcoins, it is no longer a matter of others panicking while you remain greedy.

Rather, it is about whether your altcoin/your capital can survive until the next upward cycle.

Lastly, let’s briefly talk about A-shares. Last August, I published a bearish view on the U.S. stock market and a bullish view on A-shares.

Since the beginning of the year, A-shares have shown an opposite trend to U.S. stocks, experiencing a nice rally.

However, with the failed false breakout on March 14, it is highly probable that we will see a monthly line adjustment. It is likely that we will challenge the 3000 defense line again.

#币安投票上币

$BTC Will the non-agricultural data bring a reversal to the market?

Let's make a conclusion first. Try not to have too high expectations for the non-agricultural data.

Before the data comes out, the market is depressed and falls. Even if the data is good, it is very easy to form a gate pattern.

But tonight's non-agricultural data and unemployment rate are likely to show positive fundamentals overall.

After a short period of consolidation, the market will pull up and burst the empty and lure more. It is recommended to sell at high prices if you are trapped in the early stage.

Consolidation in the early morning, ready to draw a gate and fall.

The bottom range is expected to appear on Monday or before January 20.

Compared with Ethereum and Sol, the performance of the big cake is weaker.

The reference positions of mainstream coins are roughly:

$BTC : around 88000 $ETH 2980 Sol 169

The views are personal subjective views and are for reference only.

#美国非农数据即将公布 #比特币价格走势分析

The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, yet $BTC plummets instead? Where are the retail investors' opportunities in altcoins? How will tonight's unemployment claims data affect the market?

First, let's talk about tonight's unemployment claims data; there's no need to focus on the news. The trend presented by the market indicates that after the news lands, an upward trend is expected, but as for how high it will go is still uncertain.

Currently, whether the altcoin pullback has reached the bottom still needs further observation.

Now, regarding last night's significant market drop:

In fact, I often say not to be influenced by the news; the news will only briefly reverse the existing trend or accelerate it, but it does not change the market's true direction.

Around 21:30 last night, I mentioned in my previous article that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut was basically a done deal, but after the cut, the market may not necessarily experience a turnaround.

I also mentioned that in the crypto market after the interest rate cut, most altcoins could drop another 10-20% from their existing levels, and I would consider increasing my position.

Just a few hours later, this came true again.

The reason is that the market had already deteriorated before the news was released, eliminating a large number of trapped investors who were hoping to break even after the interest rate cut.

However, due to a lack of liquidity, the influx of new capital was insufficient to lift the market, resulting in positive news turning into negative circumstances.

As most people became aware of the situation too late, the positive news could not help them break even, and trapped investors faced shattered hopes and had to cut losses.

With the positive news landing, those who bought based on the good news ended up getting trapped instead, and panic increased, leading to a downward trend in the market.

So even though Powell mentioned last night that there would be more than 4 interest rate cuts in 2025, the market merely spiked slightly higher after the news and then reversed, continuing the downward trend.

Therefore, don't just listen to what the news says; observe how the market is performing.

In my personal view, my perspective on the major A-shares and the crypto market remains unchanged; both are on a bullish path, merely undergoing a deep weekly-level washout.

Although the current situation for altcoins is not optimistic, the main goal is to make retail investors abandon altcoins.

When retail investors become desperate about altcoins, combined with positive news like the packaging of ETFs for listing, a crazy market will officially begin.

This opinion is purely personal and for reference only!

#美联储放鹰