牛市1000倍

Finally, respond:

First, let’s talk about my personal trading situation in the past week:

Mark the daily rise and fall, and the current accuracy is 100%.

As for the accuracy of the strategy, yesterday I stepped back to 60300, and finally stepped back to the position of 60060, which is considered a mistake. It was correct in the past few days, and the points were basically accurate, and the strategy accuracy rate was 80%.

For three consecutive times, the news data was analyzed in advance, and the prediction success rate was 100%.

This is the situation in the past week.

But what I want to express is that this does not mean anything, nor is it something I want to use to create a personal image for myself.

It can only show that my recent grasp of market trends is pretty good and I have adapted to the rhythm of the market.

But I always believe that there is no permanent profit master in the market, and my accuracy rate was very high in June.

But when the market rhythm suddenly changed in July, I even had doubts about myself.

So why are there no traders who make money forever? The market conditions have certain rules, but the rhythm is not static.

Sometimes there is a sudden change from shock to unilateral rhythm, and it is easy to change from stable profit to stable loss without reacting for a while.

Therefore, my current habit is to make as much profit as possible when I can grasp the market.

When the market changes its rhythm, adapt in time. If you really can't adapt, give up the unfamiliar rhythm. Trading is not just a matter of time. It doesn't hurt to take a break for a while.

The most important point, I said before:

My points are for reference only. Comments from traders who have their own market views and trading logic are welcome. We can communicate together.

But there is no logic, I haven't read the article in detail, I just come up with it for my own bad taste, and I just post it without thinking.

I do not recognize his character, nor do I think he has the qualities a trader should have.

So from now on, I will be directly blocked from this kind of meeting, and I will not respond to such comments anymore, which is also a waste of my time.

Gold is skyrocketing! BTC breaks through $88,000, JD enters crypto payments! What trends might occur in the future financial market?

Gold has shown an accelerating trend in recent days, strongly breaking through the 3400 mark, with an increase of over 30% since January this year.

It can be seen that the current global funds are mainly focused on risk aversion, and the only physical asset with strong risk-averse properties is gold.

Although no one can predict the peak of gold at this stage, the funds that have previously flowed into gold were mainly for risk-averse purposes. Recently, there has been a trend of retail investors investing in gold at high prices.

It is worth mentioning that Bitcoin, known as "digital gold", has also been steadily rising recently, breaking through $88,000 yesterday. It has increased nearly 20% from the low of $74,500 on April 7.

In the past few days, despite the downward trend in U.S. stocks, Bitcoin has still risen against the trend, showing an initial decoupling from U.S. stocks.

So, will cryptocurrencies, which have been in a downward trend for several months this year, welcome a reversal and become a favored safe-haven asset for funds that have nowhere to go or are overflowing?

First of all, last year, individuals officially entered the cryptocurrency market when Bitcoin was promoted through U.S. stock ETFs and Hong Kong's strong layout in Web3; under the premise that U.S. stocks are about to enter a cyclical bear market, cryptocurrency is viewed as a new liquidity pool for the dollar, welcoming a large influx of funds.

For cryptocurrencies to achieve the above conditions, they must maintain independence and decouple from U.S. stocks, unaffected by their cyclical downward trend. Unfortunately, since the peak of U.S. stocks, Bitcoin has not shown a divergence trend from U.S. stocks.

Only in the past few days, as gold, a too singular safe-haven asset, has been pushed to a high position, has Bitcoin risen against the trend, slightly revealing a tendency to no longer follow U.S. stocks.

However, against the backdrop of gold's fierce rise, Bitcoin's initial decoupling trend at this time seems somewhat forced, as it is merely pushed to the forefront for needed purposes; essentially, it does not possess a strong consensus-driven risk-averse property.

The trend has already occurred, and one should not forcibly impose personal judgment; rather, it is important to understand one's starting point while observing or following the trend.

However, to promote a comprehensive recovery in the crypto market, the extent of the dollar's decline may still be far from enough, and further observation is needed.

#美股下挫

Be cautious about shorting $BTC , or choose to observe. It is highly likely to reach 91000.

This is not a pullback point for the 75 rebound; it feels more like a consolidation between the 5 EMA and 10 EMA on the 12-hour chart.

Moreover, both the high and low points are gradually increasing, with short-term movements showing slow rises and rapid falls, resembling a washout and accumulation in the 835-860 range, while alleviating the upper range of 867-881.

If the judgment is correct, on the 12-hour chart, when it touches the 5 EMA at 84900, that will be the low point before the acceleration.

#比特币与美国关税政策

$BTC 86100 may not be the endpoint, is there a possibility of seeing over 90000 next week?

Previous tweet - The four-hour upward trend has ended, temporarily overturned to wait and see.

Here, the four-hour decline is not smooth, instead, it seems like a washout.

At the same time, Sol is still performing too strongly.

So for BTC here, it is very likely to extend the fifth wave of the upward trend before filling the gap at 80000, going up to over 90000, even reaching 95000.

Finally, combined with the emotional aspect, most people are very indifferent to the nearly 10,000-point rise from 745-861.

Therefore, the range from 86100 to 83600 is likely to be a point of divergence in the upward trend.

After a short-term washout, it will lead to the climax of the last main upward wave. This will conclude.

Emotionally, it will go through: panic - doubt - fomo. Currently, it is in the doubt stage.

However, if the weekly trend goes this way, it also proves that 74500 is not the bottom of this long-term downward trend.

#巨鲸动向

The four-hour rise of $BTC has temporarily ended, pay attention to the pullback at 80000.

The previous article mentioned a second test at 74500, with a quick rebound confirming the bottom.

On April 9, the bullish target was set at 86100. It was precisely reached.

Thus, the five-wave rise on the four-hour chart has officially ended.

Next, pay attention to the three areas: 80000, 77000, and 75500.

Because this bottom's rise was relatively rapid.

Therefore, if the four-hour entity breaks below 75500, then the previous low will not be the mid-term bottom.

#加密市场反弹 #巨鲸动向

It's time! Break the cup as a signal, the weekly rebound is about to come!

The current mid-term market trend has basically become clear.

$BTC 74500 quickly recovered from the second test, which likely confirms the mid-term bottom here.

Last night, Trump publicly called for orders, and two hours later, announced a 90-day tariff pause.

The encrypted US stocks surged accordingly.

Tonight, the news is starting to price in a June interest rate cut.

So the upcoming market trend is very clear:

The encrypted US stocks will experience a weekly rebound while speculating on the expectations of a June interest rate cut.

Nvidia's rebound target is around 130, and the Nasdaq's rebound target is 18500-19000.

BTC is temporarily viewed at 95000.

However, even if the June interest rate cut materializes, the US stocks will only be regarded as a rebound trend.

And after the cut, the cyclical bear market will still continue.

At that time, whether crypto will decouple from US stocks, and whether US dollar liquidity will flow into crypto,

We will remain cautious for now.

Reminder: The current market is somewhat like Trump flipping the clouds and then bringing rain.

In the coming period, volatility will be relatively large.

Recently, many people have developed a short-selling mindset, and when the majority becomes accustomed to this, the market will begin to harvest habitual thinking.

The viewpoint is a personal subjective opinion for reference only.

#特朗普暂停新关税 #交易心理学

$BTC Bull Market Returning? Let's Talk About Crypto and A-shares

Yesterday, BTC's four-hour candlestick broke through 88000, followed by a pullback, with altcoins mostly seeing a 10-20% increase. So, is this wave of increase a return of the bull market, or just a rebound?

First of all, my personal view: the current market can only be seen as a rebound from the oversold level of 76600.

Only when BTC's daily candlestick breaks above 91100 might my outlook on Bitcoin change. But this does not necessarily represent the direction of the entire crypto market.

Because the divergence trend between BTC and altcoins means, to some extent, that the Bitcoin index is distorted.

This reflects a common phenomenon we've seen over the past year: when BTC rises, altcoins don’t necessarily rise; but when BTC falls, altcoins are likely to plummet.

Therefore, in judging the trend of the entire crypto market, we can also consider SOL.

When SOL's daily candlestick breaks 183 and does not quickly pull back, it could also be seen as forming a double top or head and shoulders pattern.

Under this condition, altcoins may experience a significant rebound.

However, in the long term, the outlook is not optimistic. BTC still follows the U.S. stock market; currently, it has not decoupled. Moreover, the decline in the U.S. stock market since the beginning of the year can only be viewed as a normal correction, and the risks of accelerated crashes or unforeseen events have not yet emerged.

As long as the accelerated crash of the U.S. stock market has not arrived, the crypto market is like a sword of Damocles hanging overhead, offering no sense of security.

The question that most crypto investors are most concerned about is: Is there still an altcoin season?

Undoubtedly, there is an altcoin season, but not for all cryptocurrencies. Before it arrives, it is highly probable that many secondary altcoins will be delisted or vanish during this downturn cycle.

So currently, for long-term positions, it is best to focus on the right side and keep it as a small portion of the overall crypto position, ensuring that sudden reversals do not completely leave you empty-handed.

At this moment, for altcoins, it is no longer a matter of others panicking while you remain greedy.

Rather, it is about whether your altcoin/your capital can survive until the next upward cycle.

Lastly, let’s briefly talk about A-shares. Last August, I published a bearish view on the U.S. stock market and a bullish view on A-shares.

Since the beginning of the year, A-shares have shown an opposite trend to U.S. stocks, experiencing a nice rally.

However, with the failed false breakout on March 14, it is highly probable that we will see a monthly line adjustment. It is likely that we will challenge the 3000 defense line again.

#币安投票上币

$BTC Will the non-agricultural data bring a reversal to the market?

Let's make a conclusion first. Try not to have too high expectations for the non-agricultural data.

Before the data comes out, the market is depressed and falls. Even if the data is good, it is very easy to form a gate pattern.

But tonight's non-agricultural data and unemployment rate are likely to show positive fundamentals overall.

After a short period of consolidation, the market will pull up and burst the empty and lure more. It is recommended to sell at high prices if you are trapped in the early stage.

Consolidation in the early morning, ready to draw a gate and fall.

The bottom range is expected to appear on Monday or before January 20.

Compared with Ethereum and Sol, the performance of the big cake is weaker.

The reference positions of mainstream coins are roughly:

$BTC : around 88000 $ETH 2980 Sol 169

The views are personal subjective views and are for reference only.

#美国非农数据即将公布 #比特币价格走势分析

The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, yet $BTC plummets instead? Where are the retail investors' opportunities in altcoins? How will tonight's unemployment claims data affect the market?

First, let's talk about tonight's unemployment claims data; there's no need to focus on the news. The trend presented by the market indicates that after the news lands, an upward trend is expected, but as for how high it will go is still uncertain.

Currently, whether the altcoin pullback has reached the bottom still needs further observation.

Now, regarding last night's significant market drop:

In fact, I often say not to be influenced by the news; the news will only briefly reverse the existing trend or accelerate it, but it does not change the market's true direction.

Around 21:30 last night, I mentioned in my previous article that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut was basically a done deal, but after the cut, the market may not necessarily experience a turnaround.

I also mentioned that in the crypto market after the interest rate cut, most altcoins could drop another 10-20% from their existing levels, and I would consider increasing my position.

Just a few hours later, this came true again.

The reason is that the market had already deteriorated before the news was released, eliminating a large number of trapped investors who were hoping to break even after the interest rate cut.

However, due to a lack of liquidity, the influx of new capital was insufficient to lift the market, resulting in positive news turning into negative circumstances.

As most people became aware of the situation too late, the positive news could not help them break even, and trapped investors faced shattered hopes and had to cut losses.

With the positive news landing, those who bought based on the good news ended up getting trapped instead, and panic increased, leading to a downward trend in the market.

So even though Powell mentioned last night that there would be more than 4 interest rate cuts in 2025, the market merely spiked slightly higher after the news and then reversed, continuing the downward trend.

Therefore, don't just listen to what the news says; observe how the market is performing.

In my personal view, my perspective on the major A-shares and the crypto market remains unchanged; both are on a bullish path, merely undergoing a deep weekly-level washout.

Although the current situation for altcoins is not optimistic, the main goal is to make retail investors abandon altcoins.

When retail investors become desperate about altcoins, combined with positive news like the packaging of ETFs for listing, a crazy market will officially begin.

This opinion is purely personal and for reference only!

#美联储放鹰

Predicted that altcoins will have a 10-20% drop after interest rate cuts, once again validated!

The previous article just reminded that altcoins will still experience a 10-20% drop. A few hours later, it was validated through a sharp decline.

Personal orders were almost all accurately matched, and currently, I have 80% of my holdings in long positions.

If you believe this market trend is a bull market, then the current price-performance ratio of altcoins is very high, and losses will not be significant.

If you still want to use the altcoin prices from August 5 as a reference, claiming that this is not a low point, then subconsciously, you do not consider this a bull market.

The situation with Bitcoin was discussed in the previous article.

As for altcoins, most have already reached their weekly correction positions.

If there is a further significant drop from the current level, it may lead to unpredictable black swan risks.

Regarding whether to adopt a bull market mindset to seek high price-performance ratio levels, or to be cautious and engage in right-side trading, that is subjective.

Lastly, this opinion is a personal subjective view and is for reference only!

#币安Alpha项目公布 #加密市场盘整 #山寨季何时到来？

After Bitcoin broke 100,000, it experienced a short-term sharp drop of 10,000 points. Does this indicate a major correction or is it a need to clear contracts?

Long time no see, it has been over two months since the last update.

The RWA concept, Hong Kong concept, and some memes, especially SLERF, mentioned before the hiatus.

Almost all have seen a 3-4 times increase in value.

A few days ago, Bitcoin broke through 100,000 USD after a long daily consolidation.

Soon after, there was a sharp short-term drop to around 89,000.

Despite the dual positive influence of unemployment data and non-farm payrolls, it did not break the new high.

Instead, it formed a resistance level.

Also, from today's cryptocurrency market performance, meme coins are in the first echelon of the bull market, after being handed over by so-called value coins and VC coins, with sector rotation.

Some coins have already begun their second wave of market trends.

Moreover, the first wave increase of value coins is basically in place.

In summary, Bitcoin may see a pullback of around 10,000 points tonight.

After this pullback, observe strong meme coins for a second wave layout.

Specific operation: Personally, I will short Bitcoin around 100,400, with take profit at 91,600 and stop loss set at about 1,000 points.

This will also be my first short position during this bull market since September.

Do not short in a bull market. Keep your hands steady, but under clear trend indications, exchanging small losses for larger profit potential is reasonable.

The premise is that if you realize your judgment is wrong, you must stop loss in time. Never hold onto losing positions!!

$ETH and $SOL are relatively strong, so I do not recommend shorting.

This view is a personal subjective opinion and is for reference only.

Lastly, we still welcome the classic segment, placing a poll at the bottom of the article. Let's see everyone's views on the current market trend.

Data will be revealed tomorrow.

#BTC能站稳10W吗？ #山寨季怎么布局？

$BTC Is it to sell coins and buy A-shares? Or stick to the faith of people in the coin circle?

The price of Bitcoin fell as expected. Is it that funds temporarily flowed to A-shares, or is it a technical correction, or is it the emergence of a crypto black swan?

The article mentioned a few days ago that there will be a correction of more than 3,000 points before breaking through 68,000.

The correction is not essentially caused by the news. The market has already had a technical correction demand.

The news only catalyzed the rapidity of the correction and gave retail investors a reasonable reason.

In addition, there are also the effects of safe-haven funds and A-shares absorbing liquidity in the short term.

Even as mentioned in the article before, crypto will usher in a real bull market after the black swan.

It may also happen during this period.

But if the black swan arrives as expected, don't panic too much. Buy spot in batches and keep idle money for the long term.

Let me talk about my long-term view on the future financial market, which I have repeatedly mentioned in previous articles:

The US stock market is not optimistic, and the A-share market is optimistic in the long term. Cryptocurrency will take over part of the liquidity of the US stock market and usher in the first wave of bulls after being accepted by traditional funds.

In addition, cryptocurrencies can pay attention to the Hong Kong sector and the RWA sector. Such as CFX, OM, ONDO, etc.

The above are all long-term layouts. In addition, I have played less contracts recently and I am cautious about taking more.

Finally, during the recent National Day holiday, I traveled and rested, and inspected new projects, so I had less time to watch the market.

The article may be suspended for a few days. If there is an emergency on the market, just read the recent articles repeatedly.

#大A香还是大饼香 #加密市场急跌 #伊朗导弹袭击以色列

$BTC

A-shares and US stocks are two extremes. A-shares have risen sharply. Will Bitcoin follow US stocks or A-shares in the future?

Let's analyze the above title:

A-shares are almost the only market that has not actively spawned a stock market bubble during the entire interest rate hike cycle in the United States, but has continued to fall.

On the other hand, Japan, South Korea, India, etc., have seen their stock markets break new highs against the backdrop of the US interest rate hike.

But this rising cycle in the peripheral markets is passive, and they have no choice but to compromise with the US interest rate hike.

With the US interest rate cut, the RMB exchange rate has risen sharply, and the tension in the domestic market has eased.

At the same time, the rapid rise in the exchange rate means that a large amount of funds are flowing back to China, and there is a trend for foreign capital to transfer to China.

This is definitely not a good thing for US stocks. But Bitcoin is currently slightly stronger than US stocks.

I also mentioned in my previous article that after the interest rate cut, I am not optimistic about US stocks relative to Bitcoin.

If a financial crisis caused by the United States occurs in the next few months, the crypto market is likely to usher in a real bull market after the black swan.

The current crypto market is very strange. Although the copycat rotation has increased, it is not very strong. It is also accompanied by the rhythm of callback suppression.

The slogan of "One day in the currency circle is a year in the world" is not so loud in the background of A-shares in the past two days.

Next, return to the market:

Last night's short order of 657 was eventually lost.

The daily line also closed relatively solid. In this case, I will no longer forcefully short.

Due to this round of market and liquidity reasons, I don't think it is a bull market. The final rising position is around 68,000-the top of the daily downward trend.

But there are too many voices in the market looking at 68,000 to prevent the situation from being in place.

I will make a last short order in the range of 66,700-67,200-the support and resistance conversion point at the end of July.

Regarding shorting at 65,700, it is necessary to see the need for callback to kill more. The current accumulated long order liquidation volume has reached more than 10 billion.

And this is bound to create many obstacles for further rises.

Before breaking through 68,000, if there is a deep correction and the mid-term market, I will intervene and go long around 61,700 - a strong resistance level before breaking through 65,000 in mid-August.

#美国二季度核心PCE符合预期 #美联储11月降息预期升温 #谷歌云与Solana合作

$BTC

Big cake breaks through 65,000, panic?

At present, big cake breaks through the consolidation range of 62,700-64,700, and the highest reaches 65,800.

The market has begun to look for new highs.

But I personally think that a wave of callbacks of more than 3,000 points is brewing.

At least before breaking through 68,000, this callback will happen.

It is very common to lure more people to break through the consolidation zone.

In recent days, the consolidation in the range of 627-647 has made longs accustomed to the band and made shorts develop a habit.

The breakthrough of the consolidation zone has strengthened the confidence of the long army, and hesitation has become chasing more, or fomo.

Let the air force start to panic, and the band has become a loss or fear.

Observing the trading volume, the volume has risen sharply. At present, the positive line is still relatively solid.

The end of a rising market is often accompanied by an accelerated rise after high consolidation.

Lure more, scare shorts.

But it is only on the left side at present. I am holding short orders at 65700. So I want to verify my strategy.

Last night's article mentioned that if it does not break 63000, look at 65700 first. Look at unemployment benefits after the callback.

It is not recommended to follow, the risk is high. You can see how the closing line will be at 8 o'clock tomorrow.

The view is a personal subjective view and is for reference only.

#HMSTR开盘 #你有多少HMSTR？ #美国二季度核心PCE符合预期

$BTC Has the Bitcoin bull market arrived? Will there be a crazy bull market this year?

In the mid-term market, Bitcoin will pull back to around 60,000, and the high point is still around 68,000. A market vote is attached at the end of the article.

Bitcoin has been in a scorching trend recently, and continues to consolidate at a high level of around 2,000 points.

Many friends may also be hesitating whether to chase high or leave the market.

Then relative to Bitcoin, I would like to talk about cottages first. I don’t know if you have paid attention to the cottage market in recent times.

Take some relatively strong cottages to see that the trend can be roughly divided into several stages:

The first stage: daily line pin breakout-suppression and retracement of support levels.

The second stage: daily line entity breakout-suppression and support conversion.

The third stage: accelerated rise-pressured July support level fall.

So far, this round of rebound market has basically ended, and the next high consolidation will wait for Bitcoin to catch up.

The commonality of the above-mentioned altcoins is that they actively pulled up, took on the selling pressure, and broke through the highs in July and August.

Let's observe the high point in July again. The strong altcoins also reached the top before the big cake.

After that, the big cake reached 70,000 at the end of July, and the weak altcoins simultaneously made up for the rise and reached the high point, and the rebound ended.

Now let's look at the big cake. Taking the strong altcoins as a reference, the big cake is in the second stage, and the next step is very likely to suppress the support and resistance conversion.

For the callback position, I personally prefer to hit back to around 60,000-60,500, the Fibonacci retracement 0.618 position.

Rather than 61,300, because this support level is too obvious.

When the big cake callback, you can also find some weak altcoins and hold positions to wait for the rebound.

After the callback, for the big cake, the high point is still around 68,000, the top of the daily downward trend, and the strong pressure position.

In the long run, I still don't see the factors of the big bull in the current liquidity.

I prefer 25 years to see the progress of the bull market. This process may be accompanied by the accelerated depreciation of the US dollar or the collapse of US banks.

A large amount of incremental funds and liquidity are injected into the crypto market to promote it.

Finally, put a vote at the bottom of the article to see what everyone thinks of the market at the moment, and the data will be announced tomorrow.

#AI概念币普涨 #本周美国将公布PCE、GDP数据 #谷歌云与Solana合作

$BTC

After the interest rate cut mentioned last night, the first upward position.

63200-63800

The rise is a bit too fast

#token2049 #美联储宣布降息50个基点