$BTC On April 7th, I was firmly bullish, and now Bitcoin has broken through 100k, why am I not in FOMO?
To summarize: On April 10th, I noted that Bitcoin quickly recovered after testing 74500 twice, focusing on a medium-term rebound.
Subsequently, I personally arranged some secondary altcoin positions. On April 13th at 9 AM, it reached the short-term rebound expectation level of 86100, anticipating a short-term pullback.
After monitoring the market for a day, I found that Bitcoin remains strong. At 10 PM, I changed my view: the market is strong, retail investor sentiment is low, and I believe it will continue to rise, with the market in a phase of skepticism before the rise, looking at 95000.
April 30th view: The pullback here at 95000 won't be too deep, and I believe it will accelerate on May 2nd, breaking through 100k, driving altcoins to surge, quickly escaping the low price levels.
However, perhaps the strength of the short positions accumulated above is not enough. On May 2nd, it did not break out but instead experienced a false breakdown, then due to the interest rate landing on May 8th, it moved in line with expectations and managed a breakout against retail investors.
Currently, Bitcoin has reached 103000, exceeding my medium-term rebound expectation for $btc on April 10th, and the trend resembles a reversal.
Although altcoins have increased, they have not followed the trend I expected on April 30th. I believe that when Bitcoin breaks through 100k, a significant surge trend will occur simultaneously across many altcoins.
Many altcoins are still at low price levels, and most short-term non-altcoin players should still be trapped in losses.
Thus, the current market perspective can be seen as both a reversal and a rebound; the reversal is for Bitcoin, while the rebound is for most altcoins.
The current market trend for Bitcoin indicates that breaking new highs is likely (tentatively looking at the end of May to mid-June).
Therefore, even if altcoins remain weak, after Bitcoin breaks through new highs again, there will be significant opportunities for small retail investors under emotional factors. Just wait for it.
Do not short strong coins; wait for opportunities in secondary spot or new targets.
For me personally, since April 10th, the secondary targets I arranged have remained untouched, achieving unity of knowledge and action.
I just didn’t expect that altcoins would still be relatively weak. In the future, when choosing targets, I will need to consider the chip structure and the increase in retail investor holding rates.
Additionally, after confirming the trend of the market warming up, it is essential to prioritize the leading assets—Bitcoin and mainstream coins. The mainstream plays a role in setting the stage, and only after their performance do some altcoins gradually begin to take the stage.
Finally, here's a vote on altcoin positions:
